2023 Arkle Novices Chase

[Carnage at Taunton]

Henderson is putting on a brave face IMO, no way can he be genuinely happy with that. Jumped out to his right, headed by a 136 rated chaser and looked beat when headed. His class, and a poor jump from Calico, won the day but March will be a different parish of a test against some much better animals. The positive from today is he may have learnt something.

Yep, all about opinions, maybe the best part of this sport we love is the differing opinions we have,

I personally never thought he looked beat.
And I agree he at least learnt something, and I imagine so did connections.

 

[Lobos]

He's happy just to get a prep into him. Needed it so all good.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

He's happy just to get a prep into him. Needed it so all good.

Exactly, nicely summed up

 

[CJW]

Just seen Jonbon's race, very strange run imo. Making note to punt antepost with paddy power next year. Might get lucky. :cower:

 

[opatcho]

Not sure whether Punters were lucky or unlucky today...
Imagine this was a field of 4 or 5, Haddox included. Jonbon could have lost today with that sort of performance

Honest question for those who thought that was a decent run, or a prep run. Would you back him after that at the current price?

 

[darlojim]

Not sure whether Punters were lucky or unlucky today...
Imagine this was a field of 4 or 5, Haddox included. Jonbon could have lost today with that sort of performance

Honest question for those who thought that was a decent run, or a prep run. Would you back him after that at the current price?

There's a reason Jonbon drifted to 2s biggest and is still at that.. No one has backed him after that run, its impossible to:torn:

Take Facile Vega for example - went to 6s biggest after his defeat at the DRF, and that was cut back in after a couple hours again.

 

[Brooksie]

Harry Skelton gambled down the back by increasing the pace very sharply to catch Jonbon out and it very nearly worked. If he didn't make the mistake at the last one down the back he could have kicked on even further. Fair play to Harry, at least he tried to get him beat instead of just jogging around with him. I wouldn't be too worried if I was a Jonbon backer. Often these two horse races turn into a bit of cat and mouse, they're pretty muddling and hard to mark.

What I would say though.. his jumping went a little when finding himself behind and that would be a slight worry when facing the likes of Dysart Dynamo and El Fab.

 

[Bayoffreedom]

I don't think Dysart will win the Arkle but the thinking could be that the trip at Cheltenham is shorter (2m compared to 2m1), tighter track which helps the pacier, front running types and there's some fences at Cheltenham that could catch EF out (the downhill one and the 2nd last) if he doesn't improve his jumping.

We also haven't seen EF at Cheltenham yet but he seems balanced and that wouldn't be a concern for me.

Agree with all of this and would add that, despite it being a furlong shorter, there are two more fences to be jumped on a more undulating track. Some of those fences come up quickly and there is very little recovery time in a typical Arkle.

 

[DenmanSacre]

Agree with all of this and would add that, despite it being a furlong shorter, there are two more fences to be jumped on a more undulating track. Some of those fences come up quickly and there is very little recovery time in a typical Arkle.

Very good point. Hadn't thought about the extra 2 fences. Jonbon had negotiated the straight at Warwick well twice now so he should be well equipped for Cheltenham. Warwick chase form is a massive plus for me at the Festival.

 

[FinalFurlong91]

If Haddex des obeaux had run today I really think he'd have won

calico is a dog and he had jonbon in trouble

Every horse is entitled to a poor run but Jesus that was bad

I was there and honestly thought he was near being pulled up at one point

 

[Olliemagern]

Was that really as bad a run as everyone is making out? He looks to of got blindsided by Skelton after getting in tight at the first down the back. Would have to see the sectionals but the pace gage in the corner on Rtv goes from 29 to 35 within a furlong and Coleman’s just winding him up inbetween the fences and still takes a firm hold him as he approaches the fences and he seems to jump them slickly enough. And Warwick down the back certainly wouldn’t be a track that when you slightly get on the back foot you can make it all back immediately due to the amount of fences similar to at sandown where you often have to accept what’s happened rather than rush. Yes it’s not making me rush to back him as I’ve not got him covered yet so will wait till closer to time for ground and things on the day but that run hasn’t changed my opinion of him. Shows he can over come adversity if anything albeit against a far inferior opponent

 

[Kevloaf]

It’s a different race on a different day and a different course to Dublin.
For me it’s simply….look forward to it.
Might be some opportunities on the day betting wise, but in the main my bets are done and all alive.

And one thing that o have learnt over the years, you can never be too confident of the outcome in an Arkle in February.

I'm not sure I agree that some years you can't be too confident of the outcone in February

Of all the festival races, this is one over the years you can 'sew up'

 

[Kevloaf]

If Haddex des obeaux had run today I really think he'd have won

calico is a dog and he had jonbon in trouble

Every horse is entitled to a poor run but Jesus that was bad

I was there and honestly thought he was near being pulled up at one point

Did you ?

You genuinely thought Jonbon would get turned over... but didn't mention it prior?


4k posts.... come on mate ... you're better than that

 

[FinalFurlong91]

Did you ?

You genuinely thought Jonbon would get turned over... but didn't mention it prior?


4k posts.... come on mate ... you're better than that

Never said that was a pre race thought

but standing there watching the race very much thought haddex des obeaux would've won given how much trouble calico caused jonbon

​​​​​​​he'd never beat jonbon at his best but the jonbon that turned up today he surely would've

 

[charlie]

Was that really as bad a run as everyone is making out? He looks to of got blindsided by Skelton after getting in tight at the first down the back. Would have to see the sectionals but the pace gage in the corner on Rtv goes from 29 to 35 within a furlong and Coleman’s just winding him up inbetween the fences and still takes a firm hold him as he approaches the fences and he seems to jump them slickly enough. And Warwick down the back certainly wouldn’t be a track that when you slightly get on the back foot you can make it all back immediately due to the amount of fences similar to at sandown where you often have to accept what’s happened rather than rush. Yes it’s not making me rush to back him as I’ve not got him covered yet so will wait till closer to time for ground and things on the day but that run hasn’t changed my opinion of him. Shows he can over come adversity if anything albeit against a far inferior opponent

Yes, it was. EF laid down a real marker in Ireland last weekend by whalloping some genuinely talented horses 10L in a deep race. Jonbon just looked momentarily in trouble vs a mid 130's horse. Yes he fought back to win 5L but he jumped right throughout and looked in trouble when seeing a rival. Were he 5/1 for an Arkle then fine, but he was market favourite. On that basis it was a very poor run and there can be no excuses. He was fit and it doesn't get easier than a match bet where you can set your own fractions from the front. We've been here before with Jonbon. He did the same at Haydock over hurdles on his third run where he looked in trouble, then won in workmanlike fashion. He then went on to beat Kilkruit a couple of lengths and was lucky to beat EF at Aintree. He's a talented animal but his flashiness, press time, ties to Douvan and Hendo waxing lyrical leave him far more a hype horse than a substance horse IMO. I've been saying this for months. Yesterday could have been an off day, we're all entitled to them but I don't think he'll be winning in March.

 

[AaronLad]

Jonbon wasn't as impressive as many people expected yesterday, which is fair enough given his sp and the previous form of his opponent.
His opponent calico, had been a mid 130's horse at best over hurdles.
His one chase last season, imo did show signs of athe potential to be a better chaser a 5 1/2l loss to red rookie, who went on to contest last seasons arkle.
They tried chasing again this season, a couple of underwhelming performances including being beaten in a handicap off 130.
He then had a 53 day break and came back in another handicap chase off 129, this time for the first time in his career he would wear cheek pieces, anyone who hasn't watched this run, and they think jonbon was given a race by a cow yesterday, i'd encourage you to watch this.
Clearly an improved horse with cheekpieces, probably 145 minimum, depending on what the handicapper does with him, calico could be a player in the grand annual. And if the handicapper screws him, his hurdle rating of 129 wouldn't go unnoticed by skelton,

 

[AaronLad]

Yes, it was. EF laid down a real marker in Ireland last weekend by whalloping some genuinely talented horses 10L in a deep race. Jonbon just looked momentarily in trouble vs a mid 130's horse. Yes he fought back to win 5L but he jumped right throughout and looked in trouble when seeing a rival. Were he 5/1 for an Arkle then fine, but he was market favourite. On that basis it was a very poor run and there can be no excuses. He was fit and it doesn't get easier than a match bet where you can set your own fractions from the front. We've been here before with Jonbon. He did the same at Haydock over hurdles on his third run where he looked in trouble, then won in workmanlike fashion. He then went on to beat Kilkruit a couple of lengths and was lucky to beat EF at Aintree. He's a talented animal but his flashiness, press time, ties to Douvan and Hendo waxing lyrical leave him far more a hype horse than a substance horse IMO. I've been saying this for months. Yesterday could have been an off day, we're all entitled to them but I don't think he'll be winning in March.

Have you looked at the horse he beat yesterday? properly?

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Never said that was a pre race thought

but standing there watching the race very much thought haddex des obeaux would've won given how much trouble calico caused jonbon

​​​​​​​he'd never beat jonbon at his best but the jonbon that turned up today he surely would've

You may be right and I like HDO as an each way chance.
Think we will see a different Jonbon at Cheltenham though.
As said before, there was a reason he ran yesterday.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

I'm not sure I agree that some years you can't be too confident of the outcone in February

Of all the festival races, this is one over the years you can 'sew up'

I guess you are more confident than I am then.
Im thinking of the 2m novice chase thing, where I’m always aware of what can happen.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Harry Skelton gambled down the back by increasing the pace very sharply to catch Jonbon out and it very nearly worked. If he didn't make the mistake at the last one down the back he could have kicked on even further. Fair play to Harry, at least he tried to get him beat instead of just jogging around with him. I wouldn't be too worried if I was a Jonbon backer. Often these two horse races turn into a bit of cat and mouse, they're pretty muddling and hard to mark.

What I would say though.. his jumping went a little when finding himself behind and that would be a slight worry when facing the likes of Dysart Dynamo and El Fab.

Yeah, imo this is the most sensible post in reaction to the race.
Would be nice to see more jockeys do or try to do what HS did yesterday.
I think Hendo and co should be thankful.
That experience will have done Jonbon the world of good going forward.
Much better than a canter round.