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2022 Supreme Novices Hurdle

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My mate mozzie getting punted off the board for tomorrows race, and subsequently getting cut for this and the ballymore too.
 
riccirich said:
My mate mozzie getting punted off the board for tomorrows race, and subsequently getting cut for this and the ballymore too.
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I’ve backed My Mate Mozzie at 22/1 with Hills in their TWAR market and 66/1 in the Supreme Market with B365. Bumper to hurdle form doesn’t always translate. I’m looking forward to his seasonal debut tomorrow
 
QUOTE=hardheld;n318974]Backed JOURNEY WITH ME at 33/1 with cash out option. Obviously ballymore is most likely target, but I think there is a chance he could be Robcors and HBD supreme horse.

Had originally backed him for the AB- But have done a complete 360 and In my eyes he’s a deceptively quick galloper, a similar type to Appreciate It.

He appeared only to be second gear at Gowran, because the ground was horrific. I guess we will have to wait for decs, but I expect him to start at 2miles.
[/QUOTE]

cashed out JWM bet. It’s doesn’t look likely JWM will heading the the supreme from HBD comments starting off at 2 1/2 miles. Back to the drawing board
 
hardheld said:
QUOTE=hardheld;n318974]Backed JOURNEY WITH ME at 33/1 with cash out option. Obviously ballymore is most likely target, but I think there is a chance he could be Robcors and HBD supreme horse.

Had originally backed him for the AB- But have done a complete 360 and In my eyes he’s a deceptively quick galloper, a similar type to Appreciate It.

He appeared only to be second gear at Gowran, because the ground was horrific. I guess we will have to wait for decs, but I expect him to start at 2miles.
Click to expand...

cashed out JWM bet. It’s doesn’t look likely JWM will heading the the supreme from HBD comments starting off at 2 1/2 miles. Back to the drawing board
[/QUOTE]

Yeah other than a catastrophe, it's the Bally or Albert now, which is more helpful imo
 
Silverbirch said:
cashed out JWM bet. It’s doesn’t look likely JWM will heading the the supreme from HBD comments starting off at 2 1/2 miles. Back to the drawing board
Click to expand...

Yeah other than a catastrophe, it's the Bally or Albert now, which is more helpful imo[/QUOTE]

Although I see the angle of 'why change if he wins over 2.5m?' I'd say the AB is more likely now. A horse is hardly ever gonna debut over 3m, and is more likely to be stepped up after a debut over a shorter trip if that was always the plan (as appears to be the case here based on previous Twitter comments). Obviously plenty can go wrong and I can be proven wrong but I'd be more confident of AB now than I was before
 
Odin said:
Yeah other than a catastrophe, it's the Bally or Albert now, which is more helpful imo
Click to expand...

Although I see the angle of 'why change if he wins over 2.5m?' I'd say the AB is more likely now. A horse is hardly ever gonna debut over 3m, and is more likely to be stepped up after a debut over a shorter trip if that was always the plan (as appears to be the case here based on previous Twitter comments). Obviously plenty can go wrong and I can be proven wrong but I'd be more confident of AB now than I was before [/QUOTE]

Yep vary few horses start off over 3m in novice/maiden hurdles as there aren't many of them till later on in the season or they are at a higher grade. From last year's AB 12 of the 16 horses in the AB started that season off over hurdles at 2 1/2 miles. The other 4 started at 2 miles and finished 7th, 9th, 10th & PU.

Most horses that are seen as stayers are introduced over a medium trip and are gradually stepped up over the season. I also find that once a horse has gone over an extended trip they don't often go back down unless they don't perform well over the extended trip
 
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riccirich said:
My mate mozzie getting punted off the board for tomorrows race, and subsequently getting cut for this and the ballymore too.
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I know you couldn't Rule him out - M.M.Mozzie.., But i'm still expecting Mullins , Henderson or Elliott to take this Prize ..:boxing:
 
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BigChaang said:
I know you couldn't Rule him out - M.M.Mozzie.., But i'm still expecting Mullins , Henderson to Elliott to take this Prize ..:boxing:
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My Mate Mozzie is Gavin Cromwell’s

Hes had some winners at recent Festivals, including a Champion Hurdler, and a Stayers Hurdler, and a Bartlett winner,
Hurdlers seem to be his thing.
 
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Dead right Saxon. Cromwell also has a Welsh National under his belt. Raz De Maree. Yes, 4th in terms of high performers compared to the irish big 3 but he has Flooring Porter, Vanillier, Letsbeclearaboutit, to name but 3. Could come away from the Festival with at least a brace, if not more.

I think he is still largely under the radar. His horses don't get overbet like the others.
 
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BigChaang said:
I know you couldn't Rule him out - M.M.Mozzie.., But i'm still expecting Mullins , Henderson to Elliott to take this Prize ..:boxing:
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Backed him today so hope he can get it done lol but think he might need a bit further than 2 miles to be seen at his absolute best? Got 1m5 well enough on the flat so would he thinking perhaps more of a Ballymore horse?
 
Hard not to be impressed there Barbados loomed up turning in and he's just pulled right away from him, good round of jumping too.
 
How long has Gavin Cromwell been training? Never had a Supreme runner as far as I can see? That's not to say he can't start now of course!
 
From Saxon's Race Planning Thread,

Gavin Cromwell's interview on Racing TV.

"Could go back on the flat, he has got plenty of gears"

Question: no need to step up from 2 Miles?

"No, we will stay with that, he has plenty of gears, he wouldn't want bottomless ground in the winter, so he is one for the Spring Festivals and we will see where he takes us".

So, if we take Gavin Cromwell at face value, all Ballymore bets are off and it's all aboard the Supreme Choo Choo train??
 
Something I forgot to post about My Mate Mozzie, just slipped my mind, as it doesn't always mean an awful lot but his P2P form has worked out well enough.

The 2nd, Gris Gris Top (8 lengths behind My Mate Mozzie) finished 2nd on his rules debut in a bumper for Michael Scudamore.

The 3rd, Western Flyer (who was disq. on the day, but was 14 lengths behind My Mate Mozzie) went and won his next P2P fairly comfortably.

The only faller in the race, Nickle Back (who was disputing the lead 2 out before falling) has run twice over hurdles, the first behind Cadzand (who had plenty of experience at the time of the run) of Dan Skelton, by just 1 1/4 lengths, before absolutely hosing up at Fontwell by 30 lengths, and is rated 136 after just them two hurdles runs.

One thing that hadn't passed me by either which would be of slight concern, was that My Mate Mozzie was sold out of Mag Mullins yard, which would seem rather strange that he wasn't snapped up by Willie if they thought he was going to be a bit good, so this had crossed my mind, possible it's just one he's missed though.
 
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