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2022 National Hunt Novices Chase

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ToniC said:
His profile is really good for the race spectre and it was you that talked me into backing him before he ran despite reservations about the length of time off so cheers. Him and run wild fred both tick nearly all the boxes of what you’d look for in a horse for this race, hopefully the latter will just get some of the much needed course experience at either the October or November meeting and if he doesn’t I would say this race is probably not the plan
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Fully agree regarding Fred. I'll be jumping ship on as many bets as I can if he doesn't get any course experience at either of those two meetings! Good work getting on before this weekend btw - I equally saw everyone's love of him, but didn't get on board so playing catch up now!
 
Id be far more confident of On The Ropes than RWF winning the NHC. RWF was a lot more openly campaigned last year than I think most people remember. His jumping also regularly lets him down. OTR is just a better from everything I have seen. His still a very good bet at 12/1 imo especially with cash out
 
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Hurdles or chasing said:
RWF was a lot more openly campaigned last year than I think most people remember.
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Whilst I don't debate that Ontheropes is a better horse based on what we've seen, I don't think this is a fair comment to hold against RWF. To what I see, he was aimed at two races and came second in both. Considering they were primary handicaps in Ireland, that's hardly a bad season's work. I agree that his jumping has held him back but if that improves this year, he's just as likely to improve because of it and he's already run to a 151 RPR last year. The big risk with OTR is whether you can count on him actually getting to the festival and past history would suggest you can't. I'm still gonna get him onboard (belatedly compared to most of you), but I don't view him as a 'safe' bet at this point given his injury history. Obviously I know injuries can happen to any horse, but I think you get my jist.
 
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Odin said:
Whilst I don't debate that Ontheropes is a better horse based on what we've seen, I don't think this is a fair comment to hold against RWF. To what I see, he was aimed at two races and came second in both. Considering they were primary handicaps in Ireland, that's hardly a bad season's work. I agree that his jumping has held him back but if that improves this year, he's just as likely to improve because of it and he's already run to a 151 RPR last year. The big risk with OTR is whether you can count on him actually getting to the festival and past history would suggest you can't. I'm still gonna get him onboard (belatedly compared to most of you), but I don't view him as a 'safe' bet at this point given his injury history. Obviously I know injuries can happen to any horse, but I think you get my jist.
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What was his injury? Do we know? I can't find anything but its important we do. If it was a tendon or ligament then sure, you'd be worried re his health but it could have been something innocuous that wouldn't worry him long tem.
 
charlie said:
What was his injury? Do we know? I can't find anything but its important we do. If it was a tendon or ligament then sure, you'd be worried re his health but it could have been something innocuous that wouldn't worry him long tem.
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Not sure what his injury was, my thinking was going off the jockey saying 'the horse has had his issues' after the win the other day and also the fact that he's had three breaks of six months plus in between races after only 9 runs under rules (although he could conceivably have been put away for the season with two of them)
 
Has anyone backed Stattler yet for this?? He must be one of the least talked about fav’s for this race I can remember??
 
The King Pimm said:
Has anyone backed Stattler yet for this?? He must be one of the least talked about fav’s for this race I can remember??
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I can’t bring myself to TKP, was all over him for the potato race last season and he travelled like the winner to the last, didn’t look entirely in love with the hill for me.
Haven’t written him off and clearly there was a great deal of confidence in him that day but I’d need to see him go through with an effort or two before I part with any cash…
 
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Istabraq said:
I can’t bring myself to TKP, was all over him for the potato race last season and he travelled like the winner to the last, didn’t look entirely in love with the hill for me.
Haven’t written him off and clearly there was a great deal of confidence in him that day but I’d need to see him go through with an effort or two before I part with any cash…
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Someone said his breeding would suggest that 3m+ could be beyond him over fences. His early entries will tell us a great deal.
 
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The King Pimm said:
Has anyone backed Stattler yet for this?? He must be one of the least talked about fav’s for this race I can remember??
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You make a good point TKP.

I nailed my colours to Run Wild Fred early on but have been wrestling with idea of also having a decent bet on Ontheropes despite having missed the early price.

The trouble is - what happens if Willie sends Stattler here which seems highly likely?

If that happens will Willie also run Ontheropes? I don't think so.

For the last 3 years Willie's only had one runner in the NHC.

Over the last 10 years he's only once saddled 2 of the market leaders in the race. That was back in 2012 when Allee Garde went off 6-1 second favourite and Soll was 8-1 joint fourth favourite.

Five of his 15 runners in the NHC over the last 10 years have had a starting price of 14-1 or bigger. I get the impression it's a race where Willie might run some of his slow boats to give them a speculative back-door route into the Cheltenham Festival - but without seriously thinking they will win it.

Either Ontheropes or Stattler could go off favourite if they line up but I can't see them taking each other on here.

And as Saxon Warrior points out in his Willie analysis, Stattler's hurdling profile - ran well in the AB and the season ending 3-mile novice hurdle at Punchestown - fits the bill perfectly for a Mullins NHC contender.

It's been discussed in these pages that Ontheropes does have other options - the Hennessy, Grand National, maybe even the Gold Cup although I can't quite see that happening. He may also be a bit fragile.

Whereas the NHC does seem to be the obvious career path for Stattler. Hurdles form suggests he could be plenty good enough for this.

So which one will Patrick be riding in March?

I reckon it's more likely to be Stattler who is in the same ownership as this year's winner Galvin. I imagine he'd be up for winning the same Festival race two years in aa row.

But having said all this I still can't escape the notion I should be backing Ontheropes.
 
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archie said:
Rathvinden was 10 when he won in 2018.
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Apologies Archie, talking nonsense again on the age thing. don't know what happened there. Will correct it now.
 
My view is that the profile of runner Mullins has for this race could well change and is likely to have changed going forward.

Back in Focus was a 150+ horse and won the race with just 3 starts in 2013.
But their record with this type has of horse (classy, close to or 150+ horse off the back of a few runs) since has not been good. And they've had some rotten luck.
Pont Alexandre was had 3 runs prior. Was fatally injured in the race in 2016.
Arbre de Vie had 3 runs prior. Unseated in 2017.
Ballyward had 2 runs prior and was fatally injured in 2019.
Carefully Selected had 3 runs prior in 2020. He was legless before unseating. And he was visibly distressed post race and hasn't been seen since.

It's notable that last season connections mentioned several times the importance of experience in this race.
So personally i'm not sure this type of horse will necessarily be what they go for. Which would potentially rule out most of their novice chasers, if they have not been out early.

It doesn't rule a horse out. Next Destination for example came 2nd last season off just 2 runs.

But the awful luck they've had in the race over the last few years, the shift in vibes given about the race since 2020 and the fact Rathvinden was their last winner who had built up so much experience. Will make them look at a different type of horse for the race.

Which they look to have in Ontheropes who looks an absolute stand out in so many ways.

All eyes will be on the entries for the October meeting and the 3 miles novice chase at Cheltenham.
If Run Wild Fred were to line up, and win he then has everything in his favour too.
If not I may well keep putting more on Ontheropes.
 
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jono Perfect post that sir. Been saying same for 18 months since I first mentioned on the ropes.
doubt any inexperienced novices from Willie will run.
but you never know
 
The bosses oscar name checked for this race in the Elliott stable tour
 
Elliott on The Bosses Oscar

He’s a lovely horse that we are looking forward to seeing how he gets on over fences. He made a good start over them at Listowel, he just needed the run and got tired. He could be a horse for the National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival.
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