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2022 Novice Chase Division

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Does anyone know what happened to Jon Snow by any chance, didn't race all of last season so will keep his Novice status as a chaser, potential to be another NHC contender for Willie if he does come back over fences and won over 2 miles 7 furlongs in his last run over hurdles by 35 lengths
 
Hi FM

Do dosage indexes are calculated by establishing where and how many chefs-de-race appear on a horse's pedigree. Chefs-de-race are sires who not only have a great influence on their breed, but their influence can also be categorised by the type of progeny they produce be they precocious speedy sorts or those given to stamina. Each chef-de-race is assigned one or two categories (aptitudinal groups) according to the nature of their influence. These are;-

Brilliant - Nunthorpe/Prix de l'Abbaye
Intermediate
Classic
Solid
Professional - Ascot Gold Cup/Prix du Cadran

Should such sires appear on a horse's pedigree, points are allocated based on the proximity. Sires get 16, grandsires 8, great grandsires 4 and fourth sires 2. Points are split if the sire has multiple categories. The points are tallied and the sum total of brilliant and intermediate, plus half of classic, is divided by half of classic plus solid and professional. The result will be the dosage index. The higher the dosage index, the greater the propensity for speed. The lower the dosage index, the greater the propensity for stamina. In theory of course...

We can use My Drogo as a demonstration on how we reach the Dosage Index.

Here is his pedigree with the chefs-de-race highlighted.
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And here is the chefs-de-race list with the above influences also highlighted.

SzbRK4h.jpg


So let's start with the first generation. Milan is not a chef-de-race - which ties into one of the many limitations of the Dosage Index system. While Milan is patently a strong stamina influence, he is not prolific enough on the flat, nor impactful enough on the breed in general, to warrant a place on the list. Incidentally, another notable absentee is Danehill whose impact on the breed has been emphatic. Nevertheless, since his aptitudinal scope is so broad (his offspring encompasses such a diverse range as to include Mozart, Rock Of Gibraltar, Duke Of Marmalade, North Light and Westerner), he could not be placed in any one or two category.

OK, so sire Milan = 0
Grandsires. Sadlers Wells is in C and S so the 8 points are split between the two. Running total;-

B-I-C-S-P
0-0-4-4-0

Great grandsires. Northern Dancer [BC] and Darshaan . 4 points each. Northern Dancer's split between B&C, Darshaan's S gets all 4.

B-I-C-S-P
2-0-6-8-0

Fourth sires. Shirley Heights [CP] and Northern Dancer [BC]. 2 points each. Both split.

B-I-C-S-P
3-0-8-8-1

First half
3+0+4 = 7
Second half
4+8+1= 13

7/13 = 0.53846...

My Drogo's DI - 0.54

As this is a low DI, due largely to the influences of Sadler's Wells and Darshaan, My Drogo is more likely to be a staying type than a sprinter.

Broadly speaking, DI is more applicable to the flat than jumps, largely due to the notion that speed generally gives way for stamina as a horse matures - as discussed in the above posts.

As for the 0.5, 4/1 etc. This is something I have come up with myself as a means of quickly showing how closely related one horse is to another on the damline. The first figure denotes "the x dam is" and the second figure denotes "the x dam of". So instead of saying such a horse's granddam is out of a sister to the great granddam of another such horse, I just write 4/4 (I think... I've confused myself trying to work out how these imaginary horses are related which is why I find the number system so useful).

So 0.5 is indeed half-sibling. 1/1 is full-sibling. 1/0 will be the dam - the first dam is - so

My Drogo 1/0 My Petra = My Petra is My Drogo's dam.

From there, 2/1 would be the second dam is the first dam of.

Monmiral 2/1 La Landiere = Monmiral's granddam is the dam of La Landiere / Monmiral's dam is a sibling of La Landiere / La Landiere is Monmiral's Auntie.

Being a little more adventurous, using this table, we can see that Faugheen is related to Rocky Creek. But instead of going through the rigmarole of describing their relationship, it is simpler to just pinpoint the common ancestor on the damline which would be Marteline. Since he is Faugheen's fifth dam, and Rocky Creek's fourth dam, Faugheen 5/4 Rocky Creek.

1ZdN9mi.png


Thanks very much for explaining. I found that a fascinating read.

I think it goes to show there are several ways you can look at a race and DI is one I'd never really considered. I'm interested to learn more.
 
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That's some serious posting Kotkijet although fairly baffling to myself, especially at the levels you take it, however it is all very fascinating and greatly appreciated :applause::redface:
 
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Cheers lads. Appreciate it... or is it appreciated?

Again, I think due to the nature and limitations of dosage indexes, they may be a subject of interest more for the purist than the punter. Particularly when it comes to the more mature who compete as established national hunt types. This is a point illustrated by the less than concrete findings from the novice chases, and was touched upon in a post regarding last season's Spa hurdle. Juvenile hurdlers would be a slightly different matter as the graphs in the OP of the juvenile thread show a discernible correlation between DI and success in the division.

https://www.fatjockey.com/forum/fat...1/309591-juvenile-hurdlers-2021-22#post309591

One example would be that when comparing those with DIs between 0.31 and 0.80 against those whose DIs are between 2.50 and 3.50, the difference between the mean RPRs amounts to roughly a stone and a half which is no small figure. As such, despite the imperfections inherent in DI theory, it still offers a broad guide as to a young horse's potential for getting the trip over hurdles. While it may be possible that findings of substance can still be extrapolated in jumps races featuring older horses, I am of the opinion that the impact of physiological, environmental development would blur and offset the tangibles set by genetic predispositions.

To further illustrate one of the limitations of DI, one of the potential chasers listed above, Craigneiche, has a DI of 3.67 which is higher than that of Battaash (3.00). While 3.00 still leans firmly towards pace, no sire from Battaash's first three generations of sires appear on the chefs-de-race list. This means that the influences of Dark Angel, Acclamation, Lawman, Royal Applause, Machiavellian, Invincible Spirit and Night Shift are all absent from his DI calculations. With the exception of Night Shift, it could be argued that all of the aforementioned would at least straddle the "Brilliant" category - leading to a DI much higher than 3.00.

Conversely, Craigneiche's DI is inflated by the presence of Hoist The Flag [BI] and Indian Ridge on the third generation. However, if we were to place the remainder of the sires into hypothetical categories that I am making up as I go along, it might look something like this.

1st Generation
Flemensfirth - - ten furlong horse, not enough marathon types but most got at least twenty furlongs and several did well over the Gold Cup trip
2nd Generation
Alleged - [SP] - Arc winner, produced multiple Derby and Leger winners, grand/damsire of Grand National winners
Definite Article - [CS] - best flat horses were stayers, but while his jumpers could perform over three miles, that was the limit for many
3rd Generation
Hoist The Flag - [BI] - Outstanding 2yo with truncated career. Alleged aside, most of his better horses were speedy sorts
Diesis - [C] - Top 2yo. Got some Leger sorts but best flat horses were middle distance types. Flintoff could just about get a trip but jumpers mostly best at two miles
Indian Ridge - - Sprinter who, Definite Article aside, got sprinters and milers
Beneficial - - middle distance horse, out and out jumps sire, progeny best at around three miles
4th Generation (will just leave as is)
Tom Rolfe - [CP]
Prince John - [C]
Sharpen Up - [BC]

So with the above information, Craigneiche's DI profile would be;-

3-4-12-28-5
13/39
DI = 0.33

This would indicate that Craigneiche, as per his performances and running style, should have little difficulties getting three miles over jumps. There are, however, a couple of caveats;-

1) The apparent reason many stallions do not appear on the chefs-de-race list is that their influence is not especially pronounced. i.e;- Were Galileo and Gladiatorus to be on the same generational rung, Galileo's influence might have more of a bearing. Doesn't make intuitive sense to me but then again, I am not a geneticist.
2) Craigneiche's amended DI makes it look as though he could win an Eider and a Welsh Grand National in the same season which would be a stretch. Were all of the novice chasers listed above be subject to the same process, the average DI would probably become considerably lower.

Perhaps there could be value in establishing a chefs-de-race list that is more pertinent to national hunt racing?

This would obviously be an extremely time intensive undertaking, but one I would be happy to work on if given a living wage... After all, I am currently homeless and unemployed and while William Hill are hiring in Stockport, they are looking for more appropriate candidates to work in their shops... Despite my having a basic understanding of horse racing along with the experience of essentially running a currency exchange bureaux for over a year prior to uni... So next time you place a bet at a Billy Hills in Stockport, bear in mind that the person restricting you to ?2.50 each way has forgotten more about the sport than I will ever know :D
 
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Cheers lads. Appreciate it... or is it appreciated?

This would obviously be an extremely time intensive undertaking, but one I would be happy to work on if given a living wage... After all, I am currently homeless and unemployed and while William Hill are hiring in Stockport, they are looking for more appropriate candidates to work in their shops... Despite my having a basic understanding of horse racing along with the experience of essentially running a currency exchange bureaux for over a year prior to uni... So next time you place a bet at a Billy Hills in Stockport, bear in mind that the person restricting you to ?2.50 each way has forgotten more about the sport than I will ever know :D

Have you considered a career in racing journalism? Your posts are informative, eloquent and engaging. You should give it a go.
 
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Kot, for us simple people who are very lazy, is it possible for you to just give us a simple yes or no about the horses at the top of the Fez Novice Chase races betting whether you think they would show improved form over fences or not ??? I know it's cheeky but my grandmother always said 'If you don't ask, you don't get'. I'm sure loads on here would be very interested in your response !!!
 
Kot, for us simple people who are very lazy, is it possible for you to just give us a simple yes or no about the horses at the top of the Fez Novice Chase races betting whether you think they would show improved form over fences or not ??? I know it's cheeky but my grandmother always said 'If you don't ask, you don't get'. I'm sure loads on here would be very interested in your response !!!

It is possible, although I am not sure how much weight you want to give my opinion! Essentially, everything I know about this season's novice chasers was laid out in the previous post. As such, my opinion will be based entirely on a glance at the horse's sire, trainer and damline without any consideration given to the horse's build, manner in which they jump or even the point from which they have to improve. Which is a shame really as the biggest bets I ever had on festival novice chases (back when I used to indulge in such things) were Well Chief (WFA + Taunton performance), Denman (looked exactly how you'd expect a chaser to look) and Sizing Europe (jumped his hurdles like fences). But ask and ye shall receive. Incidentally, as starting point has not been taken into account James du Berlais may find improvement a tighter squeeze whereas something like Fakiera would not need to find a great deal.
o4kiIsu.png


Have you considered a career in racing journalism? Your posts are informative, eloquent and engaging. You should give it a go.

Thank you for saying :)

It is something I have considered and would certainly entertain if given the opportunity, although whatever skills I do possess, networking and self-promotion are not amongst them.

Incidentally, I have, in the past hour-ish, posted my juvenile profiles thing onto a blog and linked it onto twitter, although even though Cheltenham happens to be doing that trending thingamajig, my tweet has not been swept into its gravitational pull :(

https://twitter.com/HarchibaldS/status/1427728074427207681

But in the spirit of "don't ask, don't get", if anybody who's on twitter wants to like, share, re-tweet, modern gizmo stuff, then that would be nice :)
 
Quite impressed that you only have 12 followers but one of them is Lydia H!

Lovely stuff to see Bob in the 'yes' column!
 
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She was my first follower in fact, despite my not having posted anything at that point. Probably peaked too early... While I imagine it's a professional habit, I do like to think she found the name highly amusing.
 
Thanks Kot. Bit rude of me asking but very greatful of your reply. I'm sure everyone on here will take note. Very informative. Every bit helps ! Even more convinced now that Aspire Tower will end up in the Stayers .........I think I'll go in again !
 
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She was my first follower in fact, despite my not having posted anything at that point. Probably peaked too early... While I imagine it's a professional habit, I do like to think she found the name highly amusing.

I think you underestimate yourself bigtime Kot. Many of these so called experts/professionals/tipping sites have half the knowledge of you and the likes of Saxon. We are privaledged to have you guys on here and should absorb all the info you provide. Cheers.
 
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If your biggest bets were Denman, Well Chief and Sizing Europe......then I bow to you.

Flash Collonges Paul Nicholls RSA horse then ??? Ummmmm...........where's that oddschecker betting ........
 
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Apart from the fact that all my picks are in the " Maybe Not " Column !!! :sorrow:........ only joking ., That's a very interesting Chart Kotkijet .
And one i'm sure a lot of us will be refering back to as the season goes on. :encouragement: .
 
It is possible, although I am not sure how much weight you want to give my opinion! Essentially, everything I know about this season's novice chasers was laid out in the previous post. As such, my opinion will be based entirely on a glance at the horse's sire, trainer and damline without any consideration given to the horse's build, manner in which they jump or even the point from which they have to improve. Which is a shame really as the biggest bets I ever had on festival novice chases (back when I used to indulge in such things) were Well Chief (WFA + Taunton performance), Denman (looked exactly how you'd expect a chaser to look) and Sizing Europe (jumped his hurdles like fences). But ask and ye shall receive. Incidentally, as starting point has not been taken into account James du Berlais may find improvement a tighter squeeze whereas something like Fakiera would not need to find a great deal.
o4kiIsu.png

Love to see Flash Collonges in there Kotkijet

He's one I noted on the 2nd August on this thread, at a big price, I feel he could become a very good prospect over a fence indeed. I'm kinda glad he wasn't over tried over hurdles too.
 
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Love to see Flash Collonges in there Kotkijet

He's one I noted on the 2nd August on this thread, at a big price, I feel he could become a very good prospect over a fence indeed. I'm kinda glad he wasn't over tried over hurdles too.

He's certainly one I'll be adding . PN has history in the RSA. Do you think he'll end up there COD ?
 
It'll be interesting to see what Nicholls does with his Novice Chasers this season.

Bravemansgame, Barbados Bucks, Threeunderthrufive, and Flash Collonges will need splitting up, and all look likely to be staying chasers.

I think Bravemansgame and Flash Collonges are likely to be the best of them, and perhaps he'll look to split them between the RSA and the Marsh, with one of the other two targeted at the NH Chase.
 
Thanks Kot. Bit rude of me asking but very greatful of your reply. I'm sure everyone on here will take note. Very informative. Every bit helps ! Even more convinced now that Aspire Tower will end up in the Stayers .........I think I'll go in again !

Cheers Lobos

I am not clued up on the matter but Aspire Tower is still young and his pedigree does not suggest that he's screaming for a trip. I know the gap between two and three miles over hurdles isn't massive given the pace those races are usually run at, and the stayers is often the easiest championship race at the festival. But might Aspire Tower be one of those who is too slow for the best two mile races without having the stamina to fully see out the three?

I think you underestimate yourself bigtime Kot. Many of these so called experts/professionals/tipping sites have half the knowledge of you and the likes of Saxon. We are privaledged to have you guys on here and should absorb all the info you provide. Cheers.

I agree that SW is an absolute dynamo!

While my relationship with my ego is somewhat mercurial, I like to think it's not for nothing that my output often gets a flattering amount of praise. That said, as big a fan of Lydia as I am, the timing of her follow and her (to my knowledge) absence from horsey forums indicates that she has not seen any of the said output...

If your biggest bets were Denman, Well Chief and Sizing Europe......then I bow to you.

I have mentioned that I generally avoid gambling and the main reason is that I am not very good at it... Certainly not the discipline side of things which is essentially non-existent when the ADD rears its buzzy head. The aforementioned three form a very small sample size - due in part to the fact that even when I did gamble, I did not enjoy doing so at the festival for fear of spoiling the fun, and would only bet when I absolutely knew I would get a run for my money. Accordingly, if one was to use my output as a tool in ones own building of an ante-post ledger, it is worth bearing in mind that I can go years without having a penny on at Cheltenham.

I will break one of my cardinal rules here though and reveal that I have had a tenner on Matterhorn for the Triumph as I think his chances of winning the race are currently greater than 1.96%... There's an option to trade out closer the time if he (rather than the likelier Magistrato) ends up being the future chaser sent to Aintree... But there you have it. Matterhorn 50/1, get it while it lasts...

Flash Collonges Paul Nicholls RSA horse then ??? Ummmmm...........where's that oddschecker betting ........

He's in the better chaser pile because Saddler Makers have an outstanding record over fences. On paper, Flash Collonges could do very well over fences as he is by Saddler Maker and closely related to Neptune Collonges who was also under the care of Paul Nicholls. However, I have noticed that while Saddler Maker has had horses placed at Cheltenham, including at the festival, they don't win there all too often. Of his nine who achieved RPRs of 150 and above over fences, their overall record at Cheltenham stands at one win from thirty-eight. Obviously, this is not an exact science and Flash Collonges could be an exception - indeed, he is also related to Hussard Collonges who won the race in 2002. Although apart from his debut win at Exeter, his form has all been on flat tracks so unless he proves himself in the Cotswolds, this factor would always be at the back of my mind.

Notwithstanding, I am very much looking forward to him this season and if I was into the whole trading thing, I might be tempted to back him before his chasing debut and possibly lay off if he goes to Cheltenham before March. He could also be of interest in those pre-Christmas graded chases they have at Wincanton, Newbury and Doncaster...

Apart from the fact that all my picks are in the " Maybe Not " Column !!! :sorrow:........ only joking ., That's a very interesting Chart Kotkijet .
And one i'm sure a lot of us will be refering back to as the season goes on. :encouragement: .

Cheers Big Chaang

But whatever you do, don't keep referring back to that chart. I know the processes that went into making it on the fly and can tell you that I wouldn't want my own money anywhere near that thing :D

As I said, it made exclusive use of the information made in this post

https://www.fatjockey.com/forum/fat...022-novice-chase-division?p=313251#post313251

Each horse was given little more than a cursory glance at the horse's pedigree and trainer chart, and this was done during the latter stages of a long day when I was already tired. The process did not adhere to any rigorous practice in consistency and no other factors were taken into account. By all means, look at the chart then check that you agree with my categorisation based on their source. But I am essentially washing my hands of that thing... Unless it makes everyone here a lot of money in which case gifts will be readily accepted :D

Love to see Flash Collonges in there Kotkijet

He's one I noted on the 2nd August on this thread, at a big price, I feel he could become a very good prospect over a fence indeed. I'm kinda glad he wasn't over tried over hurdles too.

Just covered him above but I agree he ticks all the right boxes to make a chaser... Just a question mark hovering over Cheltenham but if it turns out he does perform there then he could be something very exciting.
 
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It'll be interesting to see what Nicholls does with his Novice Chasers this season.

Bravemansgame, Barbados Bucks, Threeunderthrufive, and Flash Collonges will need splitting up, and all look likely to be staying chasers.

I think Bravemansgame and Flash Collonges are likely to be the best of them, and perhaps he'll look to split them between the RSA and the Marsh, with one of the other two targeted at the NH Chase.

This I agree with. I'm not convinced by Barbados Bucks or Threeunderthrufive yet, though do have the latter down as a potential for a handicap at the festival next season. Barbados Bucks is yet another Getaway progeny who has been beaten twice at Cheltenham now already in his short career. Wonder if he'll be one saved for Aintree, if good enough.
 
He's certainly one I'll be adding . PN has history in the RSA. Do you think he'll end up there COD ?

I think so, provided he takes to fences (no reason why not). I think Bravemansgame will follow the Cyrname/Frodon path, and stick to intermediate distances, for the early stages of his chase career at least. Whether he turns up at Cheltenham again is anyone's guess.
 
Love to see Flash Collonges in there Kotkijet

He's one I noted on the 2nd August on this thread, at a big price, I feel he could become a very good prospect over a fence indeed. I'm kinda glad he wasn't over tried over hurdles too.

I was taking a look through his form the other day COD and I noticed on his last outing the racing post reported he broke a blood vessel. I'm no expert with regards to horses bleeding etc but does that dampen your enthusiasm on him?
 
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