2016 Supreme Novices

[mayo]

Pricewise must be putting up Tombstone. All blue.

 

[Cashew King]

Value Bet (Ben Linfoot) has put up Buveur Dair - hence the blue thereA

 

[Old Vic]

I didnt see this one coming. Silver Concorde

 

[Morning Glory]

Value Bet (Ben Linfoot) has put up Buveur Dair - hence the blue thereA

There is one Ricci-Mullins-Walsh hotpot on the first day of the Cheltenham Festival that has to be taken on, though, and that's Min in the opening Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle.

Now, it is perfectly reasonable for the bookies to factor in recent history in this race, given Ricci-Mullins-Walsh are going for their fourth consecutive win in the Festival curtain raiser.

And, of course, they have to consider the multiple liabilities that the Min-Douvan-Faugheen-Annie Power four-timer would rack up, especially as the industry was almost rocked by a similar four-fold on the same day last season.

But, none of these things enhance Min's chance in the Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle and, on the bare form, he's a horrible price for what is a far more competitive race than the market indicates.

In fairness to the horse, if you took away the connections and the recent history and the multiple liabilities he would still be towards the top of the betting for the Sky Bet Supreme.

His maiden hurdle form is working out well and he did win a Grade 2 by almost 10 lengths on the bridle last time. He jumps really well, is considered to be even better on better ground and has obviously got an engine.

But he did pull hard at Punchestown last time and an even-money, 5/4, 13/8 chance he is not. The best horse he has beaten is rated 132 and he was getting 2lb from him.

The good thing is there are some good horses around him in the betting that are trading at bigger odds than they otherwise might be.

I like Supasundae as a horse and think he could prove himself a player in the coming weeks, so he's worth considering at 20/1, as is Eddie Harty's Coney Island who isn't quoted by many bookies but did look very good last time and could get the chance to enhance his reputation in the Deloitte.

But the more I look at the betting the more I like the Nicky Henderson-trained pair, Altior and BUVEUR D'AIR, and though the former has been backed into a still-perfectly fair 6/1, his stablemate makes even more appeal at 12s.

I haven't seen a more impressive hurdling debutant this season and the way he travelled and jumped at Newbury before quickening clear in the manner of a very good horse left a lasting impression.

His bumper form was good, he bumped into Barters Hill twice and was a bit unlucky when he was hampered at Aintree, and he left the Weatherbys Champion Bumper third, Wait For Me, for dead at Newbury when streaking clear by 11 lengths.

And that Newbury form, as a whole, couldn't have worked out much better.

Not only has the runner-up Wait For Me won twice since, but the fourth, Bun Doran, won at Haydock last Saturday, the fifth, After Hours, also won at Haydock last month and the seventh, Pilgrims Bay, won at Wincanton last week.

We haven't seen Buveur D'Air since, but the way he destroyed these subsequent winners suggests he just needs the opportunity to advertise his credentials again and he could get that chance on Friday as he's entered up at Doncaster and Huntingdon.

Henderson only tweeted on Sunday that Buveur D'Air is on track for the Sky Bet Supreme along with Altior and with those entries in mind now looks a perfect time to get him on side.

I'm not convinced by either Yorkhill or Bellshill for this race as both look more likely to be suited to the demands of the Neptune. You can see one of them running here, probably Yorkhill, to give owner Graham Wylie a chance in both races, but he does look quite short at 8s - he beat Henderson's O O Seven in the Tolworth, but that horse would be some way below Altior and Buveur D'Air in the Seven Barrows pecking order.

Yanworth is another that has looked good against moderate opposition, but it looks increasingly likely that he's bound for the Neptune given he's second favourite for that race now, while Tombstone could be Gigginstown's representative here but he too has options over further.

While many horses in the Sky Bet Supreme betting have the Neptune has an option, Buveur D'Air doesn't look like being one of them, and the 12/1 available in several places looks worth taking now before he gets the chance to display his class again.

 

[Morning Glory]

If PW put up Supasundae I would have understood it. I know Id rather have him at the prices than SC.

 

[mayo]

Quotes

W Mullins

Min has been very good so far he'll head straight to Cheltenham. Belshill and Yorkhill have the option of the Deloitte or else they could head straight to Cheltenham. All of mine have a few options at the Festival and I wont be deciding what route they'll take until nearer the time. At this stage they all seem in good form.

N Henderson

"Altior has had a nice break. I'd think he'll run again before Cheltenham but he doesn't have to. He's been around Cheltenham and done everything right so far. Either him or Buveur D'Air could run in the Dovecote."


"Buveur D'Air is going to Huntingdon on Friday because I'd like to get two runs into him. He won well last time and is in very good order. Buveur D'Air could move up to two and a half miles but I suspect he's a two-miler."

Pipe

Moon Racer

"It will be down to the wire with him. We're still in there fighting. He's in good form but he'd go straight there if anything."

H de Bromhead

Supasundae is in great order. He really warmed to his jumping after the first at Leop and Jonathon (Burke) was delighted with him

Nicholls

Modus will definitely have an entry and the intention is to go to the Betfair Hurdle first and make a plan after that. I'll probably put some juveniles in too

E Harty

Coney island goes for the Deloitte and we'll be a lot wiser after that. he's a lovely horse and the form of his maiden hurdle win is working out well"

D Weld

Silver Concorde

The Supreme is definitely the plan he'll more than likely go straight there. He's in super order and I couldn't be happier with him. His jumping is brilliant and I'm really looking forward to getting him back out over hurdles on better ground. The only way he wouldn't run in the Supreme is if it were to come up heavy.

 

[paz247]

I backed Silver Concorde last year for The Supreme, but it is a surprise pricewise has put it up for the race this year. Do we think this years crop of novices are better than last years entries?

 

[Old Vic]

I backed Silver Concorde last year for The Supreme, but it is a surprise pricewise has put it up for the race this year. Do we think this years crop of novices are better than last years entries?

Too early to tell? Douvan looks good but Windsor Park and Martello Tower havent done mych for the other two races.

 

[iainmcf]

Ball D'arc gives the Min form another boost today.

 

[Rhinestone Cowboy]

Value Bet (Ben Linfoot) has put up Buveur Dair - hence the blue thereA

Talking about Neptune for him.


Henderson said. “I was quite keen to get two runs into him [before Cheltenham], and for anything that needs two runs before March, this weekend is your cut-off really, to get time for another run and some breathing space. That was just a good little bit of experience for him to teach him to switch off, get in behind horses and go through a gap and do what he did. What I’m really trying to establish is whether to go two or two-and-a-half. He has all the gears for two but you might find that he doesn’t have any problem staying.”


“Sidney Banks Memorial Novice Hurdle back at Huntingdon in 13 days’ time is an option,” Henderson said. “He hasn’t had to do an awful lot of work today, but nor should he have needed to if he’s going to be [a] realistic [Festival runner], which I think he is. We wanted to have one easy one and then give him a test. I just think he will stay, he looked a stayer last year in his bumpers so it would be a surprise if he didn’t get two-and-a-half, but he’s got the pace to go two.”

 

[Old Vic]

Deloitte 13/21 trained by Willie.

NO. HORSE AGE WGT TRAINER RTF% JOCKEY OR TS RPR
1 2-O11 A Toi Phil13 6 11-10 W P Mullins63 — 85 155
2 211-13 Anibale Fly34 6 11-10 A J Martin33 — 115 140
3 2-1111 Bellshill34 6 11-10 W P Mullins63 150 121 154
4 513322 Last Encounter34 6 11-10 Ms Margaret Mullins 135 116 141
5 111111 Long Dog41 6 11-10 W P Mullins63 147 125 155
6 3-122 Open Eagle21 7 11-10 W P Mullins63 — 127 146
7 121 Our Duke20 6 11-10 Mrs John Harrington50 — 87 138
8 16-931 Supasundae41 6 11-10 Henry De Bromhead67 — 111 137
9 F1211 Thomas Hobson21 6 11-10 W P Mullins63 137 127 152
10 31-112 Tombstone41 6 11-10 Gordon Elliott26 147 80 148
11 1-193 Woodland Opera13 6 11-10 Mrs John Harrington50 — 115 136
12 11-111 Yorkhill35 6 11-10 W P Mullins63 — 132 156
13 111128 Bachasson41 5 11-9 W P Mullins63 145 127 153
14 3-1 Bello Conti46 5 11-9 W P Mullins63 — 116 140
15 22-14 Bleu Et Rouge41 5 11-9 W P Mullins63 — 104 143
16 321 Coney Island42 5 11-9 Edward P Harty40 — 112 133
17 1-221 Disko91 5 11-9 Noel Meade50 — 115 139
18 43-11 Min28 5 11-9 W P Mullins63 — 128 157
19 1-113 Petit Mouchoir41 5 11-9 W P Mullins63 — 107 146
20 1-115 Myska6 6 11-3 W P Mullins63 — 91 144
21 11 Limini7 5 11-2 W P Mullins63 — 94 150

 

[mayo]

Entries

Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
Grade 1, Total Prize Fund £120,000, Cheltenham, 1.30pm, Tuesday, March 15, Old Course, two miles and half a furlong (2m 87y), for
novice four-year-olds and upwards. Weights 4-y-o 10st 13lb, 5-y-o and upwards 11st 7lb, fillies and mares allowance 7lb. Entries closed
February 2, entries revealed, February 4 (64 entries), scratchings deadline February 23. Six-day confirmation and £6,000 supplementary
stage, March 4, final declaration stage 10.00am, March 14.
Horse Age Owner Trainer
A HARE BREATH (IRE) 8 Mrs S N J Embiricos Ben Pauling
A TOI PHIL (FR) 6 Gigginstown House Stud Willie Mullins IRE
AFFAIRE D'HONNEUR (FR) 5 Holt Robinson Kronbauer Macnabb O'Connor Harry Whittington
ALLBLAK DES PLACES (FR) 4 George Creighton Willie Mullins IRE
ALTIOR (IRE) 6 Patricia Pugh Nicky Henderson
ALTRUISM (IRE) 6 V R Vyner-Brooks, K Bowron James Moffatt
ALWAYS RESOLUTE 5 Market Avenue Racing Club Ltd Brian Ellison
AU QUART DE TOUR (FR) 6 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE
BABBLING STREAM 5 John I O'Byrne Willie Mullins IRE
BACHASSON (FR) 5 E O'Connell Willie Mullins IRE
BAILY CLOUD (IRE) 6 R A Scott Mouse Morris IRE
BALKO DES FLOS (FR) 5 Gigginstown House Stud Willie Mullins IRE
BALL D'ARC (FR) 5 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
BELLO CONTI (FR) 5 Gigginstown House Stud Willie Mullins IRE
BELLSHILL (IRE) 6 Andrea & Graham Wylie Willie Mullins IRE
BLEU BERRY (FR) 5 Luke McMahon Willie Mullins IRE
BLEU ET ROUGE (FR) 5 J P McManus Willie Mullins IRE
BLUE RAMBLER 6 Bloomfields John Ferguson
BRAIN POWER (IRE) 5 Michael Buckley Nicky Henderson
BUVEUR D'AIR (FR) 5 Potensis Bloodstock Ltd & Chris Giles Nicky Henderson
CHARBEL (IRE) 5 Julie and David Martin Kim Bailey
CONEY ISLAND (IRE) 5 J P McManus Edward Harty IRE
CONSUL DE THAIX (FR) 4 J P McManus Nicky Henderson
FLYING ANGEL (IRE) 5 R J Rexton Nigel Twiston-Davies
HOLLY BUSH HENRY (IRE) 5 Lady Bamford & Alice Bamford Graeme McPherson
ITS'AFREEBEE (IRE) 6 Rebel Jumping Dan Skelton
LAC LEMAN (GER) 5 D&D Armstrong Ltd Pauline Robson
LET'S DANCE (FR) 4 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE
LONG DOG 6 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE
MAHLERS STAR (IRE) 6 Simon Hunt & Jack Hunt David Bridgwater
MEET THE LEGEND 5 Highclere Thoroughbred Racing - Legend Dan Skelton
MIN (FR) 5 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE
MISTER MIYAGI (IRE) 7 Ben Turner & Jay Tabb Dan Skelton
MODUS 6 J P McManus Paul Nicholls
MOON OVER GERMANY (IRE) 5 Philip J Reynolds Edward Harty IRE
MOON RACER (IRE) 7 Professor Caroline Tisdall & Bryan Drew David Pipe
NO HERETIC 8 Fitri Hay Nicky Henderson
NORTH HILL HARVEY 5 Mrs G Widdowson & Lizzie Kelvin-Hughes Dan Skelton
OCEANE (FR) 4 McNeill Family Alan King
OKOTOKS (IRE) 6 Malcolm Denmark Tony Martin IRE
OPEN EAGLE (IRE) 7 Supreme Horse Racing Club/Colin Gray Willie Mullins IRE
PENGLAI PAVILION (USA) 6 Bloomfields John Ferguson
PETER THE MAYO MAN (IRE) 6 Masterson Holdings Limited Neil Mulholland
PETIT MOUCHOIR (FR) 5 Gigginstown House Stud Willie Mullins IRE
POTTERS LEGEND 6 Mrs J May Lucy Wadham
ROADIE JOE (IRE) 7 Billy Bates Evan Williams
SILVER CONCORDE 8 Dr Ronan Lambe Dermot Weld IRE
SOUTHSEA ISLAND (IRE) 8 Roy Wilson Stuart Crawford IRE
STERNRUBIN (GER) 5 Terry Warner Philip Hobbs
SUPASUNDAE 6 Ann & Alan Potts Partnership Henry de Bromhead IRE
TEA IN TRANSVAAL (IRE) 5 M J Haines Evan Williams
THOMAS HOBSON 6 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE
THUMB STONE BLUES (IRE) 6 P O'Dwyer Shay Barry IRE
TOMBSTONE (IRE) 6 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
TOMMY SILVER (FR) 4 Potensis Bloodstock Limited Paul Nicholls
TOWNSHEND (GER) 5 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE
TULLY EAST (IRE) 6 Barry Connell Alan Fleming IRE
TYCOON PRINCE (IRE) 6 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
VIGIL (IRE) 7 Noel Furlong Dermot Weld IRE
WAIT FOR ME (FR) 6 Andrew Cohen Philip Hobbs
WHISPERING STORM (GER) 6 Masterson Holdings Limited Paul Nicholls
129
WILLIAM H BONNEY 5 Mr & Mrs R Scott Alan King
WINTER ESCAPE (IRE) 5 J P McManus Alan King
YORKHILL (IRE) 6 Andrea & Graham Wylie Willie Mullins IRE
64 entries
31 Irish-trained

 

[Old Vic]

No Min in Deloitte

 

[johnno]

“Modus is a nice horse as well. He’s going to go to Newbury and then he’ll probably end up in the Supreme. He’s a good horse, he’s one that could definitely have a chance in something. He definitely wouldn’t finish last if he ran in the Supreme, that’s for sure. But it’s a long way off to be making plans.”

Mr Nicholls

 

[gjt7756]

Modus wouldn't get near the front 3 in the supreme in my opinion

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

He'd need to win the betfair impressively to be a serious contender. His run in last season's bumper means I can't dismiss him just yet.

 

[Yeehaa]

and speaking of de bumper

Pipe said in his weekly blog: "It remains very much touch and go whether Moon Racer will make it to the festival next month. We are doing everything we can to get him there in tip-top order but he will certainly not be running prior to Cheltenham."

 

[Cashew King]

Paddy P must think Tombstone is heading here - into 10s for the Supreme and out to 20s for the Neptune. To be fair Eddie O'Leary always maintained it was their supreme horse and looked to get outstayed on Sunday !

 

[iainmcf]

Its looking Yorkhill is going to reroute to Neptune as well looking at the two sets of odds....another blow to my ante post bets...

 

[Cashew King]

Its looking Yorkhill is going to reroute to Neptune as well looking at the two sets of odds....another blow to my ante post bets...

Yeah - the 43s available on the exchange for the Supreme wouldn't fill you with hope - ������