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2016 Supreme Novices

TheRowebot said:
Phew. Confirmed by WPM that Min is fine - exchange now setting. I can't take this much more..
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Just confirms that those (some, not all) in the industry with knowledge and information that isn't available to the public will run to their machines in an attempt to effectively defraud punters.

I remember a few years ago coming home drunk one Saturday night a few weeks before Cheltenham, I'd had a decent day and when I saw £500 available to back Quevega at evens (betfair) when she was 8/11 best industry price I couldn't press the buttons quick enough.
I got lucky she made it to the race and won, but I fully suspect that was someone/bookie with contacts in the yard and there had been a setback with the horse and that individual was trying to cheat money from anyone....
 
I see the high st have pushed min out so it could be the betfair walk is just a response.
Stan James go 2/1 which isn't a surprise given the talent Min faces....
 
The only horse that worries me is Yorkihill, his form is far superior to mins, I initially thought yorkhill would go for the neptune possibly as didn't believe he wanted the minimum trip, thiught he looked good at 2 and a half, anyway it's just up in the air at the moment with all the mullins runners which makes it hard for us punters considering his festival form and the fact he's bound to be champion trainer, I think the only horse i'm not concerned about is Douvan for the arkle....
 
gjt7756 said:
The only horse that worries me is Yorkihill, his form is far superior to mins, I initially thought yorkhill would go for the neptune possibly as didn't believe he wanted the minimum trip, thiught he looked good at 2 and a half, anyway it's just up in the air at the moment with all the mullins runners which makes it hard for us punters considering his festival form and the fact he's bound to be champion trainer, I think the only horse i'm not concerned about is Douvan for the arkle....
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Not Altior ?
I still think Tombstone has a say in this if this is where he ends up.
It's a strong renewal for me
 
Altior has looked good, but when you consider the market has cut him to 4/1 2nd fav and Yorkhill is 8/1 i would side all day with Yorkhill if he runs, also i think his form is better, i have this nagging feeling that Altior could get lit up at Cheltenham with the crowd and the first race roar, tombstone for me has looked a bit like an awkward ride in his last two runs and difficult to win with, he for me has place chances at best
 
Altior's course win over a 147 rated rival (Maputo) and on quicker ground has to give him a huge chance ?
Even Champagne Fever was only rated 148 when he won the Supreme, Altior currently rated 154....
 
It's one of those things, yes he beat maputo half a length but maputo hasn't been out since so the form has yet to be franked, certainly nothing else in behind has done anything for the form, Alrior did come out next time and beat open eagle 13 lengths which on the face of it is decent form but cleary that trip was too short for him and has done well over further since, i just feel yorkhills last run has real substance to the form and is the main threat to min should he run, i feel the market will reflect that should he be declared for this and not the neptune
 
Yorkill over Altior all day long. But by the way GW was talking about him on ATR sounded like he was leaning towards the Neptune.
 
If Bellshill recovers from a bad scope after its last race and both he and Yorkhill are ready for Chelters then I see Yorkhill going Supreme.Mullins was quoted as saying the Neptune was the race for Bellshill so I'd say they would stick to that if both horses are well for the races.
 
Anyone else hear that Min fell during schooling and requires stitches?

Probably the rumour mill on overdrive but it could explain the drifting...
 
Zipiter said:
Anyone else hear that Min fell during schooling and requires stitches?

Probably the rumour mill on overdrive but it could explain the drifting...
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I haven't heard anything. I assumed that it was the result of someone deliberately orchestrating the drift. I've heard of people laying horses to force their price out and then when others start panicking and pushing the price out further, they step back in and take the big prices on offer.
 
Min easing with the books is probably a direct result of the Faugheen injury.

Betfair markets can get very thin at this time of year annd doesnt take much money to cause a stir when NRNB is close.
 
Old Vic said:
Min easing with the books is probably a direct result of the Faugheen injury.

Betfair markets can get very thin at this time of year annd doesnt take much money to cause a stir when NRNB is close.
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I agree OV. Min's price has been ridiculously short for some time. I'm not saying it can't or won't win but it's price has been short due to the Mullins factor and all the acca's rolling up on the Tuesday. Now that is less of an issue for the bookies they can afford to ease the price - still too short as far as I'm concerned though.
 
Cashew King said:
I agree OV. Min's price has been ridiculously short for some time. I'm not saying it can't or won't win but it's price has been short due to the Mullins factor and all the acca's rolling up on the Tuesday. Now that is less of an issue for the bookies they can afford to ease the price - still too short as far as I'm concerned though.
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He is getting close to backable for me CK. Bellshill a could be anything.
 
Old Vic said:
He is getting close to backable for me CK. Bellshill a could be anything.
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I honestly think it will be bigger on the day so don't see the point in backing it ante post with the risks that come with that. The likes of paddy power & skybet will have money back offers etc.
 
Townshend finally out today, 2:55 at fairyhouse, possibly to get a run in before the festival??? same great connections as Min, Douvan etc...
 
It looks like Townshend will be heading for one of the handicaps, at a guess I'd say the Martin Pipe - a race WPM has a very good record in.
 
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