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Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

Think I'll be adding Ontheropes to my 4 Miler book. He looks the ideal type from his good run behind Monkfish and is now qualified which is a major plus point. Also think Diol Ker (already backed TWAR) will go the same route as he too ran a very promising 'trial' for the 4 miler and is also qualified. Neither of them will beat Monkfish so pointless going RSA.
 
Lobos said:
Think I'll be adding Ontheropes to my 4 Miler book. He looks the ideal type from his good run behind Monkfish and is now qualified which is a major plus point. Also think Diol Ker (already backed TWAR) will go the same route as he too ran a very promising 'trial' for the 4 miler and is also qualified. Neither of them will beat Monkfish so pointless going RSA.
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Diol Ker not yet qualified, needs top 4 in 2ml 7 1/2f +
 
Pendil said:
Diol Ker not yet qualified, needs top 4 in 2ml 7 1/2f +
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Oh yeah, my bad. Thanks. Thought Monkfish race was over 3. Every chance he'll go that route though imo.
 
YoungHustler said:
Hi JM

I thought 365 are one of the best accounts and don't restrict you as easily as many other bookies. I want to keep both my accounts open as long as possible so are you able to advise the number of bets you were cashing out on and the average percentage returns before they restricted you please? Thank you.
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I'll be honest, I don't have a calculation I can share as the two account cash out restrictions were based on completely different bet portfolio's and the number and cash out percentage varied for each. The two times I had the concession removed I'd already made a profit pre-Cheltenham (approx 50% ROI) and had numerous bets still running. I knew it would happen but I have a crazy method in terms of chasing a big win and the concession is paramount to that process.
 
Crolwey113 said:
Same happened to me removed my cash out, antepost bets and all stakes are like 30c max - get onto them and under GDPR ask for a subject access request on the account for all information.

Some of it makes for interesting reading, what they actually record on your account

My reason for closure which you can only find on the SAR was 'overnight tipping lines'
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I might give that a look although I know why they cut me off and they won't reinstate it regardless. As long as Bet365 keep the concession I should have enough family members to keep me going for a good while.
 
JackieMoon33 said:
I might give that a look although I know why they cut me off and they won't reinstate it regardless. As long as Bet365 keep the concession I should have enough family members to keep me going for a good while.
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Yeah, its more just out of interest. You would be amused the comments they write on each account and they have to hand all of them over if you ask for a SAR.

I had nothing to lose by requesting (as moved onto partners 365 account) just found it interesting the comments they make and recorded on me :excitement: They literally record everything, one which stood out was when you request a price. I don't think they ever expect much people to ask for them...
 
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Crolwey113 said:
Yeah, its more just out of interest. You would be assumed the comments they write on each account and they have to hand all of them over if you ask for a SAR.

I had nothing to lose by requesting (as moved onto partners 365 account) just found it interesting the comments they make and recorded on me :excitement: They literally record everything, one which stood out what when you request a price. I don't think they ever expect much people to ask for them...
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I'm intrigued now so may give it a go although I'm not sure if I want to know what they think of me in the comments as they may use the term 'mug' a fair bit :biggrin-new:
 
BigChaang said:
The Trainer say's that the Irish Grand National is the Target T.O.T.G , so the N.h.chs might be a bit too close . i.m.o.
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Just catching up in this thread do you have any quotes? Rewatched the rte coverage and said that connections might have a rethink post race.

Dont think I would rule it out!
 
On the off chance. Anyone heard news of Cobblers Way? still not entered for anything. Thanks
 
Leman14 said:
Hi MOM - this is a genuine question and not one to insight an argument :welcoming: and this isn't necessarily aimed at you specifically - your post just reminded me of a question...

If you have already backed the horse "Any Race" and have that security of getting a run for your money (if they make it to the Fez), is there a specific reason why you would then go back in on a specific race?
I've seen a few posters "split stakes" between a specific race and any race and I'm curious as to the reasoning.

Everyone's approach is different and I like to explore new strategies where possible.
In my case, once I have backed a horse "any race" and I am comfortable with my level of potential return, I can then "forget" about them until nearer the time.
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Hi mate - that’s a fair question.

To give some context, he was 22/1 for any race and 37/1 for the NH Chase. Both boosted with Hills from 20/1 and 33/1.

In my opinion, the horse will run in the NH Chase. However, my main fear was that if he came out on debut and ran as good as I think he could be, he perhaps would become too good for the NH Chase. Rich Ricci and Joe Chambers have both said the horse has summered best of anyone and really strengthened up. So if he did swerve the race and become and RSA candidate, he’d have been shorter than the 22/1 he currently is any race anyway. Which would leave me in the position of thinking, do I back FOC now for the RSA at around 16s for example as a horse I’ve always thought we be a very good novice chaser or do I leave him alone and potentially miss out on a horse I like because I got the target wrong.

So I literally came to the conclusion that both the 22/1 any race for one point is a fair bet and a straight 1 point on the NH Chase at 37/1 would also be justified. I’m happy with that position and think it depends on a horse by horse case whether it’s sensible. In this case, I’ll still have 2 points on him at an average price of 29.5/1 if he went for the NH Chase as I reckoned but with the caveat that I’d also have a point at 22/1 affectively if he becomes a horse who is too good for the race and ends up with stablemate Monkfish in the RSA.
 
Thanks for responding. That makes sense.

I’m generally more conservative and in that scenario would put 2 pts on “any race”, but your route obviously pays better. :victorious:

Lets just hope we get to see him soon! :cower:
 
I noticed that Ontheropes is 20’s on the exchange but still widely available @ 33’s with the bookies.

I really liked his performance behind Monkfish and have added him to my book.

just thought it was interesting that the exchanges is quite abit lower! Obviously interest for him! :apple:
 
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Topofthegame2021 said:
I noticed that Ontheropes is 20’s on the exchange but still widely available @ 33’s with the bookies.

I really liked his performance behind Monkfish and have added him to my book.

just thought it was interesting that the exchanges is quite abit lower! Obviously interest for him! :apple:
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To be fair there has only been 4K matched on the market and it's only ?3 at 20s, once that has gone its blank both sides. It's good to try to nick a if price but little liquidity on many of the fez races this side of Xmas.
 
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On next Tuesday at Punchestown there is a 3M1F BEginners Chase which will qualify the first 4 as eligible for the National Hunt Chase.

FIVE O'CLOCK (Willie Mullins) has an entry, which if taken up, may be unusual for Willie to try a decent novice chase prospect straight over 3M+. It could signal an intention to consider the NHC.

EKLAT DE RIRE is another chasing debutante, who was a decent novice hurdler, for Henry De Bromhead.

RUN WILD FRED (Gordon Elliott) and SCHOOL BOY HOURS (Noel Meade) are others who could run and qualify for the NHC by a first 4 finish next Tuesday.
 
Topofthegame2021 said:
I noticed that Ontheropes is 20’s on the exchange but still widely available @ 33’s with the bookies.

I really liked his performance behind Monkfish and have added him to my book.

just thought it was interesting that the exchanges is quite abit lower! Obviously interest for him! :apple:
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....yep, there has been plenty of discussion about OntheRopes on here and I recall the NH Chase has been mentioned by the stable as a target.
 
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Epson Du Houx giving the Andy Dufresne chase debut form a nice boost today before he runs on Saturday. Haven't back him for Cheltenham yet, may add him for the Marsh with 365 at 25-1 as the 12-1 any race is a bit short. Really hard to see how all the mcmanus novice chasers are gonna be separated.
 
The Big Getaway starts off life over 2m 4f at Navan on Saturday, against the likes of Sempo (Bartlett 6th), Exit Poll (2nd behind Andy Dufresne on chase debut)and Conflated (2nd behind Asterion Forlonge over fences LTO), so it should be a fair enough test for him, although you're still looking at horses that are only around the 130-140 mark over hurdles, so expect him to win well enough.
 
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