dannycraigpirates
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Probably their way of catching out the shrewdies on the antepost markets, and closing their accounts down
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Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)
- Thread starter Kevloaf
- Start date
Not sure i follow what you mean here Kev?
Are you saying Envoi has potentially achieved more at this point of his career as he's won every race whilst being fav doing so? Does that make him better than say Altior at the same point simply because he wasn't fav for his novice hurdle? Until a horse clashes especially when opposites sides of the Irish sea you wouldn't find out until then and a market can clearly rate one over the other especially if a Mullins horse. If Altior had been fav that day i wouldn't rate him any higher because of it.
jono
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021)
Can't really add anymore to descirbe how good Envoi Allen is.
The best horse in training.
The fact Elliott is happy to (and has been for a while now) call him
"the horse of a lifetime"
Already, at just 6 years old speaks volumes.
He used the same words to describe Don Cossack when he retired.
A horse who had won the Gold Cup , the Melling Chase by 26L, the Punchestown Gold Cup by 7L.
Ever since then he's been reluctant to state in public just how good he thinks a horse is, including Samcro when he looked to be the star of NH racing.
For him to be saying this now, in his novice chase season and after 2 incredibly weak novice chases says everything you need to know.
Just hope he gets a clear run over the next 3 or 4 years to show just how far he can go
The best horse in training.
The fact Elliott is happy to (and has been for a while now) call him
"the horse of a lifetime"
Already, at just 6 years old speaks volumes.
He used the same words to describe Don Cossack when he retired.
A horse who had won the Gold Cup , the Melling Chase by 26L, the Punchestown Gold Cup by 7L.
Ever since then he's been reluctant to state in public just how good he thinks a horse is, including Samcro when he looked to be the star of NH racing.
For him to be saying this now, in his novice chase season and after 2 incredibly weak novice chases says everything you need to know.
Just hope he gets a clear run over the next 3 or 4 years to show just how far he can go
charlie
Fat Jockey Patron (est. March 2021)
Winning margin been less than a length in one of the last 10 renewals in the Arkle & 2 of the last 10 in the JLT. This is a good value bet & a nice way in for people who didn’t get on at bigger prices IMO at double the odds of the standard double
Middle_Of_March
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So the two RSA market movers today are obviously Monkfish (now as short as 3/1) and Next Destination (now as short at 10/1, but still 20/1 with Hills).
Anyone already on Monkfish must have been absolutely delighted with today. He did everything easily and looked a complete natural over fences. He won so easily the calibre of what he beat doesn't come into it for me, and as someone who is not on I wish I was, but never will be because he's priced up as the real deal, but not proved it yet. He is very, very exciting.
For those not on either, the horse to take out of today from an ante post and value perspective is IMO without question, Next Destination.
Next Destination was 10/1 fav having not jumped a fence in public before being ruled out in January 2019, which tells us he was very well fancied.
He's clearly had his issues, moved to Paul Nicholls and ran what Paul called an 'awesome' seasonal appearance run behind Roksana at Wetherby. To me it was a superb reappearance run after 920 days off, but what he did today was much closer to awesome, IMO of course. If ever there was a horse that should 'bounce' then it was Next Destination today. 27 days ago he ran over 3m after 920 days off, then puts in a near flawless round of jumping on his chase debut on ground less that ideal, and wins a Grade 2 with enough in hand to think there is upwards trajectory.
I thought it was serious performance disguised on a busy day of racing as just a good performance, which is so important in terms of finding value, and the price discrepancy between bookmakers kind of suggest they are not sure either! It was clear for all to see that turning in he was getting tired and his Wetherby exploits were catching up with him, but HC knew exactly how to handle him, and class prevailed.
I think he is a proper RSA contender, and cannot see PN having a better horse to aim at this race than Next Destination.
When his name first came up everyone was naturally very reserved pre-Wetherby and even post Wetherby we still didn't know if he was fit, well and would take to chasing. For me, he's answered those questions today.
He was incredibly well fancied for the RSA on here the year he got injured, and he's 9 next year. We've seen 50+ Grade 1 chase winners nine years or older over 3m or more at Cheltenham over the years, and if Paul can keep ND fit and well, and steadily improve him, I think 22/1 EW is excellent ante post value bet.
Cue the news on Monday that ND has been ruled out of the season
I’m sure I find myself agreeing with you more than I do anyone else on here but I totally agree once again.
As someone who’s backed ND for the RSA for the last two years, I’m shocked that ive not actually got him in there already. But the 20/1 is just too big imo. 14/1 I’d have him. I like the horse.
Other than 2 points in free bets at 17/2, I haven’t got anything on Monfish. Not sure why but I didn’t see him as one that would be shorter than 5/1 by Christmas. Now I think he’s too short for me to touch but perhaps he can be in my third rollup attempt of the season at some point if I change my mind.
As good as it was as a debut from Monfish, I actually think I preferred the horse who I’ve always thought was a hype train... The Big Breakaway of the 3m novice chasers so far.
Looks a good division as always though. The Christmas racing both sides of the Irish Sea always tells a lot about the RSA in my opinion. The Kauto Star on Boxing Day being one of a few decent contests to work out the pecking order of things.
That’s a good point, most decent novice chasers are given soft introductions and it’s usually only at the Christmas festivals they meet horses with similar abilities....
Just a loose and fairly pointless point :highly_amused:, that Envoi Allen is more high profile at this stage than Altior was, as Envoi Allen is still unbeaten, including the Champion Bumper. Whereas Altior had been beaten and Min had a bigger reputation.
As Altior wasn't favourite, whilst you personally may not rate him any differently, I'm just saying it adds to the aura that Envoi Allen was a favourite and won.
BigChaang
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The Trainer say's that the Irish Grand National is the Target T.O.T.G , so the N.h.chs might be a bit too close . i.m.o.
Topofthegame2021
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Thanks for the update - shame really, I’d give her a good chance in the NH chase based on that performance
Has there been anything in the media etc about Klassical Dream lately? Now a general 16/1 for this, from plenty of 25s being available ~3 weeks or so ago. Perhaps just a case of other potential contenders underwhelming?
Not seen anything specific. Drips from the stable tours were he could be the Arkle horse, but that was said about more than one.
SeanRock
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If we want to see Klassical Dream & more importantly for my pocket Elixir D'ainay compete in graded company at Christmas they would want to be taking up engagements this weekend given Willie's preference for 3/4 weeks between racing. There's a 2m beginners on the John Durkan card at Punchestown this Sunday that would suit both. There's also a 2m1f grade 3 at Navan the day before if he's feeling unusually bullish but you'll probably see one that's won their beginners taking up that entry.
JackieMoon33
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He does have the entry in the Racing Post Novice Chase (Grade 1) on Boxing Day at Leopardstown to give a glimmer of hope. You'd probably want a run before then though and he's running out of time on that front.
charlie
Fat Jockey Patron (est. March 2021)
The double on its own pays out just over 5/1 at current prices.
I try and avoid doubles/trebles because they rarely materialise and I accept this comes with risk, but EA & Shishkin both to win any race by 1L or more @ 11/1 sounds pretty good, especially for someone like me as I don't have either in the book as singles.
Yes they have to get there, yes they have to win, but let's look at winning margins historically.
As you and others have pointed out, the winning margin has been less than a length once in the last 10 Arkle's. As Kev pointed out 7 of the last 10 favs have won. Those two stats, plus Shishkin's chase debut, plus his win @ Cheltenham, plus his overall profile, collectively leave me comfortable with that side of that bet.
Re the Marsh, 8/10 runnings have been won by a length or more, and often by a lot more than that, eg, Shattered Love (7) & Vautour (15).
If I am splitting hairs we know EA doesn't do loads out in front, and he did win the bumper by less than a length, but he won the Ballymore by nearly 5 lengths and if he is the horse we all think he is (ie. Vautour esque) then if he wins the Marsh, he's doing it by more than a length isn't he?
I've added 2 more points @ 11/1 because I think the 1 length aspect of the bet is a bit of a gift. I did the 3L5L double @ 28/1 and gave that equal amount of thought, so if that made sense at 28/1 then 11/1 for 1L1L equally, makes sense.
Eggs
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.....for ease of reference I have added an Index at the front of the ‘Handicap Watch’ thread that Kev moved into the diary section. Following Monkfish’s impressive victory, I was keen to add the horse that finished 2nd, OntheRopes, to the Index with perhaps the Kim Muir in mind but Pendil points out it’s now qualified for the NHC.
Ridden by DJ Mullins, OntheRopes seems to have gone under the radar but finished way ahead of Sams Profile, Diol Ker and Escaria Ten so 33-1 with cash-out seems reasonable. Hills have introduced it to a/r market @ 16-1.
Ridden by DJ Mullins, OntheRopes seems to have gone under the radar but finished way ahead of Sams Profile, Diol Ker and Escaria Ten so 33-1 with cash-out seems reasonable. Hills have introduced it to a/r market @ 16-1.
:mad-new: :sorrow: :highly_amused:
11/1 for for a +1L win for each does not seem unreasonable, compared to backing just the double at the current price.
If I was starting fresh, I'd probably take that double now, then play them as a double NRNB (at shorter odds than now) - if they still looked the bollocks by then