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2015 RSA Chase

  • Thread starter Thread starter Morning Glory
  • Start date Start date
Thanks for posting MG. Totally agree with all of the above and am already on VL for the RSA so praying he lines up.

The major counter arguments I have seen from people who want to see VL in the JLT and DP in the RSA is that VL is the smaller horse and apparently prefers cut in the ground. I don't see how his size is relevant in this case as VL has already shown himself to be one of the best novice chasers in Ireland. Neither can I find any quotes from connections saying cut in the ground is vital for him.

I just hope Willie holds his ground and that VL turns up in the RSA rather than the JLT
 
Don Poli

Don Poli

Lessey said:
Thanks for posting MG. Totally agree with all of the above and am already on VL for the RSA so praying he lines up.

The major counter arguments I have seen from people who want to see VL in the JLT and DP in the RSA is that VL is the smaller horse and apparently prefers cut in the ground. I don't see how his size is relevant in this case as VL has already shown himself to be one of the best novice chasers in Ireland. Neither can I find any quotes from connections saying cut in the ground is vital for him.

I just hope Willie holds his ground and that VL turns up in the RSA rather than the JLT
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OV seems to have got caught in the middle of a spat on twitter between the bloke who organised a Chletenham Preview in Balbriggan and others who have backed Don Poli for the RSA. One of the charity bets was Don Cossack and Don Poli (NH Chase) double from Kevin O'Ryan :D.

Remarkable the amount of people who claim to know where horses are going to run when connections havent even decided. Best just to go NRNB and avoid the aggro. IMO the value in NRNB is almost always in backing horses for the race they are NOT expected to run in.
 
mayo said:
OV seems to have got caught in the middle of a spat on twitter between the bloke who organised a Chletenham Preview in Balbriggan and others who have backed Don Poli for the RSA. One of the charity bets was Don Cossack and Don Poli (NH Chase) double from Kevin O'Ryan :D.

Remarkable the amount of people who claim to know where horses are going to run when connections havent even decided. Best just to go NRNB and avoid the aggro. IMO the value in NRNB is almost always in backing horses for the race they are NOT expected to run in.
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Ha Ha Mayo. Not so much as spat as getting in the middle of opinion getting interpreted as fact. It is A big danger with preview nights and particularly stuff reported second hand via twitter.

You are right about NRNB so go to Boyles
 
mayo said:
OV seems to have got caught in the middle of a spat on twitter between the bloke who organised a Chletenham Preview in Balbriggan and others who have backed Don Poli for the RSA. One of the charity bets was Don Cossack and Don Poli (NH Chase) double from Kevin O'Ryan :D.

Remarkable the amount of people who claim to know where horses are going to run when connections havent even decided. Best just to go NRNB and avoid the aggro. IMO the value in NRNB is almost always in backing horses for the race they are NOT expected to run in.
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vc

There are quite a few Irish experts tipping DP for the 4-miler but I agree Mayo most are guessing.

People also saying Paddy Power have an 'insight' into the Mullins-G'town placing of horse and they are shortest about DP for the RSA and longest for the 4-miler but I often think they use this to engineer themselves a very good ante-post position and take it very much with a pinch of salt.

Whichever way they choose I will endeavour to make money from it as if DP runs in the RSA he may rival Don Cossack as the lay of the festival in my book, especially if he ends up taking on Coneygree!
 
Lessey said:
vc

There are quite a few Irish experts tipping DP for the 4-miler but I agree Mayo most are guessing.

People also saying Paddy Power have an 'insight' into the Mullins-G'town placing of horse and they are shortest about DP for the RSA and longest for the 4-miler but I often think they use this to engineer themselves a very good ante-post position and take it very much with a pinch of salt.

Whichever way they choose I will endeavour to make money from it as if DP runs in the RSA he may rival Don Cossack as the lay of the festival in my book, especially if he ends up taking on Coneygree!
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I think the whole Don Poli for the 4 miler came from Patrick Mullins a few months back. I think it was on the Final Furlong podcast that he suggested that was the plan.

Anyone who took that as gospel needs their head examined. PM would obviously say that as he would get the ride in the 4 miler.
 
Our Conor said:
I think the whole Don Poli for the 4 miler came from Patrick Mullins a few months back. I think it was on the Final Furlong podcast that he suggested that was the plan.

Anyone who took that as gospel needs their head examined. PM would obviously say that as he would get the ride in the 4 miler.
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I think its been further fuelled by Willie suggesting Valseur Lido is ideal for the RSA and he would prefer to run VL in the RSA as he has Vautour in the JLT and would like to keep his top novices apart.

I'm with the Mullins' on this!
 
Lessey said:
I think its been further fuelled by Willie suggesting Valseur Lido is ideal for the RSA and he would prefer to run VL in the RSA as he has Vautour in the JLT and would like to keep his top novices apart.

I'm with the Mullins' on this!
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Haha, I'd rather VL in the JLT and DP in the RSA but I can absolutely see the point of view of Mullins wanting to keep his best chasers apart. Wouldn't dream of backing them antepost because plans can change like that although Paddy Power now go 6/1 DP and 5/1 Very Wood in the 4 miler!
 
Old Vic said:
Kings Palace attracted a bit of criticism after winning at Newbury last time out and drifted in the RSA market; what did you make of the run and how do you see him doing in the RSA?

He is our best chance of a winner at the Cheltenham Festival. He has been faultless in two races around Cheltenham this term and any criticism of his Newbury run are unjustified. Two runner races are always difficult for horse and jockey and he will have learned from his mistakes at the open ditches. It will take a very good horse to beat him.
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KP could be a bet to nothing. Pipe saying "It will take a very good horse to beat him" is a huge statement in an RSA and I really think he means it.
 
loveracing said:
KP could be a bet to nothing. Pipe saying "It will take a very good horse to beat him" is a huge statement in an RSA and I really think he means it.
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I hope you're right LR, he's another I have in a couple of multis
 
MrMcGoldrick said:
I hope you're right LR, he's another I have in a couple of multis
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I am hoping he can find more coming down and up the hill. He will be taken on up in front this time and not sure what he will find towards the end.

How many secs would you say it takes to run an extra furlong over the RSA distance?

KP clocked 6m 42.50s over 3m 1f 110yrds back in December where last years RSA was around 42 secs faster on good ground. 42 secs seems a lot, though KP has been targeted for the RSA.
 
loveracing said:
I am hoping he can find more coming down and up the hill. He will be taken on up in front this time and not sure what he will find towards the end.

How many secs would you say it takes to run an extra furlong over the RSA distance?

KP clocked 6m 42.50s over 3m 1f 110yrds back in December where last years RSA was around 42 secs faster on good ground. 42 secs seems a lot, though KP has been targeted for the RSA.
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I think a lot depends on what front runners turn up, sometimes they set the race up for finishers by going too quick, but if you have a horse that can lay up just off the pace it can produce a race that's run in a fast time, plus there are ground differences that affect the overall time. The only race I've taken note of the times with is the QM just to check on the relative performances of certain horses and I found out that SDG's winning time was 12 secs faster than Sprinters time the year before, so I think the pace angle is a key ingredient.
 
MrMcGoldrick said:
I think a lot depends on what front runners turn up, sometimes they set the race up for finishers by going too quick, but if you have a horse that can lay up just off the pace it can produce a race that's run in a fast time, plus there are ground differences that affect the overall time. The only race I've taken note of the times with is the QM just to check on the relative performances of certain horses and I found out that SDG's winning time was 12 secs faster than Sprinters time the year before, so I think the pace angle is a key ingredient.
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We also have to take "wind" in consideration. So maybe times could be irrelevant.
 
loveracing said:
We also have to take "wind" in consideration. So maybe times could be irrelevant.
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Yes true, wind factor is a biggie, and in the comparison in your earlier post the final furlong up the hill isn't likely to be quick so probably accounts for 12 to 14 seconds of the difference, making the actual race for race comparison over a flat 3 miles around 28 to 30 secs, so doesn't look quite as big a gap
 
MrMcGoldrick said:
Yes true, wind factor is a biggie, and in the comparison in your earlier post the final furlong up the hill isn't likely to be quick so probably accounts for 12 to 14 seconds of the difference, making the actual race for race comparison over a flat 3 miles around 28 to 30 secs, so doesn't look quite as big a gap
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I am sure Pipe didnt ask TS to go and win well in the winter races. He knew KP was ahead of the others, so we can bet he will be much better come March.

Getting more positives vibes now. :)
 
Day 2 yankee selection
Kings Palace
Excellent jumper, travels like a dream and I can't get past the confidence the Pipe camp have in this horse, I think he'll take all the beating, I know he isn't over 8/1, but for me he's a strong fancy
 
MrMcGoldrick said:
Day 2 yankee selection
Kings Palace
Excellent jumper, travels like a dream and I can't get past the confidence the Pipe camp have in this horse, I think he'll take all the beating, I know he isn't over 8/1, but for me he's a strong fancy
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I will be happy to go with KP at 5/1 if we can get all the suggestions in on time, only 3 points away from 8's and a solid selection.
 
Does anyone know if this is If In Doubt's target? He has no handicap entries and can't see any obvious other JP runner in this.

I'm going to have a decent bet at 33/1 if this is the target.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
Does anyone know if this is If In Doubt's target? He has no handicap entries and can't see any obvious other JP runner in this.

I'm going to have a decent bet at 33/1 if this is the target.
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Blue on Betfair so could be. 25s NRNB with Bet365 a safer option ?
 
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