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Handicap Shortlist - Cheltenham 2020

I Couldn't back sire du berlais off 152 ?
I prefer a horse to be well handicapped ideally.
Miracle he won last year really, and there was nothing in the race that was unexposed.
Could be this year.
Gordon will do well to get that down a couple.
 
quevega said:
I Couldn't back sire du berlais off 152 ?
I prefer a horse to be well handicapped ideally.
Miracle he won last year really, and there was nothing in the race that was unexposed.
Could be this year.
Gordon will do well to get that down a couple.
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I’d be in the same camp myself.
 
Native River said:
Sire Du Berlais & It's All Guesswork both declared in the Pertemps Qualifier at Warwick tomorrow. I am very interested in the later of the 2 seems only 365 have him priced up at 20s
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And Tedham
 
quevega said:
I Couldn't back sire du berlais off 152 ?
I prefer a horse to be well handicapped ideally.
Miracle he won last year really, and there was nothing in the race that was unexposed.
Could be this year.
Gordon will do well to get that down a couple.
Click to expand...

Agree.
Presenting Percy and Fingal Bay won off topweight but it's fair to say connections used handicap hurdling as a stepping stone to bigger things, generally you are looking for horses who have had the handbrake on for most of the year.

Remember how well Pipe did to avoid the non triers tag on Buena Vista, the second of his Pertemps wins was ridiculous, not sure I've ever seen a horse swinging to that extend approaching the last in a 24 runner handicap...
 
Istabraq said:
Agree.
Presenting Percy and Fingal Bay won off topweight but it's fair to say connections used handicap hurdling as a stepping stone to bigger things, generally you are looking for horses who have had the handbrake on for most of the year.

Remember how well Pipe did to avoid the non triers tag on Buena Vista, the second of his Pertemps wins was ridiculous, not sure I've ever seen a horse swinging to that extend approaching the last in a 24 runner handicap...
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I'd want 25's for SDB, but he's going to be a general 14-1 shot, just because.
 
quevega said:
I Couldn't back sire du berlais off 152 ?
I prefer a horse to be well handicapped ideally.
Miracle he won last year really, and there was nothing in the race that was unexposed.
Could be this year.
Gordon will do well to get that down a couple.
Click to expand...

Hes 149 in ireland already. And he wont be winning any time soon, so should easily be coming in off lower than 152.

I'll be taking the 16s later today myself.
 
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Scooby91 said:
Hes 149 in ireland already. And he wont be winning any time soon, so should easily be coming in off lower than 152.

I'll be taking the 16s later today myself.
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he's entered tomorrow at Warwick in a qualifier off 152.
 
Not sure the Brit handicapper will drop him much myself, even if tailed off
 
quevega said:
he's entered tomorrow at Warwick in a qualifier off 152.
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That's why I'll have to back today. Hes not going to win it, so he should drop atleast 1 pound.

If they wanted him unplaced to drop. Then qualify him later. They could do that too. But 5th or 6th will do me. He wont be 16s on the day. I can assure you of that
 
Scooby91 said:
That's why I'll have to back today. Hes not going to win it, so he should drop atleast 1 pound.

If they wanted him unplaced to drop. Then qualify him later. They could do that too. But 5th or 6th will do me. He wont be 16s on the day. I can assure you of that
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Not convinced it's your smartest bet.
But we'll see.
He would be shorter though, at SP at least.
 
There's no way they'll take any chances with him. Even if they can squeeze in 2 more bad runs before the weights are out I'd be surprised if he gets below 150, maybe 149 if they get lucky. That's still 4lb higher than last year and he didn't have much in hand. He'll definitely go off shorter than he should be and I'd be surprised/disappointed if there isn't something better handicapped on the day.
 
He'd need to be a high 150's horse in disguise for all these years, even the win (his maiden win) by the scruff of his neck last year.
The Brit handicapper will definitely want him to have a penalty for last year.
 
quevega said:
Not convinced it's your smartest bet.
But we'll see.
He would be shorter though, at SP at least.
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It's not always the low weights, that win.
Hes a Course and distance winner. Had all the trouble in the world in running and still won well. I like him. And think he's a very good bet @ 16s. He's only a few pounds up from winning the race. 6/1 max on the day imo.

I'm sure nobody takes his run last time literally as if were trying to qualify. Very dangerous if are.
 
quevega said:
He'd need to be a high 150's horse in disguise for all these years, even the win (his maiden win) by the scruff of his neck last year.
The Brit handicapper will definitely want him to have a penalty for last year.
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Not at all. He needs to cope with the hustle and bustle of a big field handicap, keep finding off the bridle. And stay on the best.

His experience and trainers record counteracts a few pounds imo. They're 500kg horses I'm deffinately not worrying about a pound here or there myself.
 
Scooby91 said:
It's not always the low weights, that win.
Hes a Course and distance winner. Had all the trouble in the world in running and still won well. I like him. And think he's a very good bet @ 16s. He's only a few pounds up from winning the race. 6/1 max on the day imo.

I'm sure nobody takes his run last time literally as if were trying to qualify. Very dangerous if are.
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No, but I take his run in the martin pipe, and last year pertemps seriously.
I just think 16's antepost for a 24 runner handicap like this, for a horse on it's highest rating, that's only ever won one race (just), with a trainer that already has a better handicapped horse qualified is a bit skinny.
But, I agree that as a previous winner, should he get there on the day then he'd be backed.
Although I'm not sure that would be a fair reflection of his chances. It wasn't last year either.
 
I think in short. I'd kind of want at least double figures for him on the day.
I know that's unlikely but it's what I'd want - to part with anything.
 
What claimer might GE or JP be able to call upon for Sire Du Berlais in the Final :p
 
paz247 said:
What claimer might GE or JP be able to call upon for Sire Du Berlais in the Final :p
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Barry Geraghty :highly_amused:

On a serious note, they ought to get a couple of pounds once they reach a certain age.
 
Baby Jonjo most likely - or has he ridden it out now

yes he has
 
quevega said:
Barry Geraghty :highly_amused:

On a serious note, they ought to get a couple of pounds once they reach a certain age.
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Can't foresee any issues with a 55 year old 10lb claimer :)
 
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