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Arkle 2020

charlie said:
I reckon they will campaign Melon over 2m4f up till Cheltenham and then drop him into the Arkle at the very last minute.
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Every chance still, yeah.

Though if he travels well over that trip and wins well (which potentially he could be entitled to do) they would have to be thinking JLT all the way.
 
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Max Dynamite?

Hadn't realised he was going chasing!

He's been well fancied for some races hasn't he... County Hurdle, Melbourne Cup, Royal Ascot...Ran in a group 1 in Sha Tin too.


Also entered over hurdles. Love it.
 
Looks like Tornado Flyer may be running at Navan in the grade 3 Novices on Saturday.
I reckon Willie has seen the form (looking a bit dubious) and opted to see him again at this level before considering stepping up.
I think he'd want him to put up a good performance Saturday to keep him in the A team.
Need to decide whether to cover him if he's declared later this week.
Thinking not at this stage, as I have plenty.
But we'll see.
 
quevega said:
I'd put a good dozen horses ahead of him right now.
Think Mr Nichols decision shows you what he thinks of the form, it's hardly stacking up is it ?

A lot has to go in his favour as regards to opposition falling away, and he needs to improve a fair bit.
Wouldn't say at 33-1 he's an absolute no-hoper though.
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Hilarious. Name the dozen.
 
Laurina
Fakir
Melon
Angel's Breath
Put the kettle on
Fanions destruval
Brewinupastorm
Notebook
Torpillo
Mister Fisher
Lisp
Cash back

It's like that gameshow on saturday night with that bearded fella.

If any of those were in a race against Al Dancer I'd prefer to back them.
And it's hard for you to state a strong case on actual form on the racecourse (hurdle or novice chasing) against it.
It'd have to be guesswork on weight allowances and race fitness etc etc.
 
quevega said:
Laurina
Fakir
Melon
Angel's Breath
Put the kettle on
Fanions destruval
Brewinupastorm
Notebook
Torpillo
Mister Fisher
Lisp
Cash back

It's like that gameshow on saturday night with that bearded fella.

If any of those were in a race against Al Dancer I'd prefer to back them.
And it's hard for you to state a strong case on actual form on the racecourse (hurdle or novice chasing) against it.
It'd have to be guesswork on weight allowances and race fitness etc etc.
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Laurina and fanion destruval I'd agree.
But we've no idea if they will make it to the arkle.

notebook I'd have on around a par with al dancer at this stage

Brewin
Torpillo
Cashback
Lisp
Mister Fisher
Have all done absolutely zero to date. Al dancer jumps fine and imo would have all these covered over hurdles or fences.

Melon is going over further, as is Angel's breath. Will they drop back, who knows but its not currently the plan

Fakir is running around with 10 pounds in hand and would have got a pasting by samcro imo. Nothing behind would be anywhere near an arkle. He faced a melon on seasonal debut who'd been in shitty form previously receiving 10.

I wouldnt be thinking fakirs all that just yet
 
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Scooby91 said:
Laurina and fanion destruval I'd agree.
But we've no idea if they will make it to the arkle.

notebook I'd have on around a par with al dancer at this stage

Brewin
Torpillo
Cashback
Lisp
Mister Fisher
Have all done absolutely zero to date. Al dancer jumps fine and imo would have all these covered over hurdles or fences.

Melon is going over further, as is al dancer. Will they drop back, who knows but its not currently the plan
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Freudian slip there Scooby.
But likely to happen IMO.
 
Scooby,
Think Fakir would make 2 lengths on Al Dancer at every fence (at least one for arguments sake).
That's 13 lengths over the arkle trip.
And he finished 21 lengths behind him in the supreme.

That 8lbs he gives up on January 1st is going to have to go a long way.
I'd have one of my biggest bet's ever that Fakir beats Al Dancer, but would be scared he'd fall :highly_amused:
 
Anyone still keeping any hope Grand Sancy may be any good for this? I backed him for this on the back of the stable tour a while back and although Nicholls was probably trying to pick up some early season pots over hurdles it doesn’t fill me with too much confidence re fences.

He thought so much of Getaway Trump.....who is now rumoured to be going back over hurdles. Do we read from that that GS in his eyes did not have the potential or shown him too much schooling or possibly GT looked a machine? Of which GT has pretty much disappointed over fences to date.

GS is entered into Saturday in the novices chase at Sandown in what looks a fairly decent field at this stage.
 
quevega said:
Scooby,
Think Fakir would make 2 lengths on Al Dancer at every fence (at least one for arguments sake).
That's 13 lengths over the arkle trip.
And he finished 21 lengths behind him in the supreme.

That 8lbs he gives up on January 1st is going to have to go a long way.
I'd have one of my biggest bet's ever that Fakir beats Al Dancer, but would be scared he'd fall :highly_amused:
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I don't think anybody doubts that he looks good to date, but hes not one that iv backed, or will. Im very happy to take him on. Hopefully I'll have 3 big priced ones in the race, that for me , have every chance of being involved.
Fakir may not make it to, or even run, in that race and we all know what can happen during the race itself, If he does go and win so be it.

I won't win every race that's for sure, but I'll back what I personally perceive to be value. And stick at that.
 
PP/Betfair adjustments in prices, Fakir cilpped half a point to 11/2, Angels Breath out from 10's to 14's, Felix Desjy out to 16's from 12's, City Island 20's from 16's, Melon 14's from 10's, Getaway Trump 25's from 20's
 
ComplyOrDie said:
PP/Betfair adjustments in prices, Fakir cilpped half a point to 11/2, Angels Breath out from 10's to 14's, Felix Desjy out to 16's from 12's, City Island 20's from 16's, Melon 14's from 10's, Getaway Trump 25's from 20's
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Presumably they expect them all not to run!?
 
City Island starting life off over 2m 1f @ Leopardstown
 
We've seen some lively looking 4 year olds for this race so far, and/or the JLT.

Torpillo, Fakir D, Fanion D. - in particular.

As we should be aware the generous allowance they get is removed on January 1st 2020.

So I've looked at the ones that have ended up running in March in the last 10 years.
Probably been done before but worth a refresher.

In the arkle,
Only three have had a go.

St calvados 4th
Clarcam 8th
His excellency 3rd

In the JLT a few more have had a go, particularly recently with the Munir's spotting a gap in the market I reckon.

Terrefort 2nd
bristol de mai 2nd
Vukovar 7th
Djakadam Fell
Argocat 10th

All in all, a relatively small amount have tried, and nearly all have been French breds, and have usually raced previously in France before coming over.

Food for thought, but basically I don't think sufficient animals have tried it, but the most recent JLT runners show positive signs maybe.
 
I never thought Dynamite Dollars was much use but interesting Nicholls says Grand Sancy is definitely on his level..sounded bullish as per for Saturday.
 
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