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2014 Supreme Novices Hurdle
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skippymac6
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Not looking good for us Mayo...
Fenton had earlier seen his The Tullow Tank fail to justify 9/10 favouritism when second in the Deloitte Novice Hurdle and the trainer mentioned “he still ran with credit it's obvious he wants to go up in trip; the Neptune Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham now looks the race for him.”
At 11/1 for the Neptune he looks worth a look but Faugheen and Red Sherlock both look like very above grade horses. If TTT was to pull out then again Western Boy who came very close to beating Vautour at 16s must be worth a small investment? Although I would be worried that Fahy might try and "mind" him and might not risk Cheltenham with him. Fahy after his second to Vautour....
"I think there's more improvement in him on better ground, so i'd be very happy with him at this stage. He won't have too many runs as he's a light framed horse. We'll treat him like he's a good horse as there has been nothing to suggest that he isn't. Fingers crossed he stays sound. We'll educate him and keep him happy, as it's not all about this year."
Fenton had earlier seen his The Tullow Tank fail to justify 9/10 favouritism when second in the Deloitte Novice Hurdle and the trainer mentioned “he still ran with credit it's obvious he wants to go up in trip; the Neptune Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham now looks the race for him.”
At 11/1 for the Neptune he looks worth a look but Faugheen and Red Sherlock both look like very above grade horses. If TTT was to pull out then again Western Boy who came very close to beating Vautour at 16s must be worth a small investment? Although I would be worried that Fahy might try and "mind" him and might not risk Cheltenham with him. Fahy after his second to Vautour....
"I think there's more improvement in him on better ground, so i'd be very happy with him at this stage. He won't have too many runs as he's a light framed horse. We'll treat him like he's a good horse as there has been nothing to suggest that he isn't. Fingers crossed he stays sound. We'll educate him and keep him happy, as it's not all about this year."
mayo
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Yep. Probably should have done Blackngolds any race bet. I think the Supreme still looks more winnable than the Neptune tbh. Dodging Vautour and running into Faugheen has all the makings of jumping from the frying pan to the fire.
Fahy's horses are going well and I am sure Davy Russell will be pushing to bring him to Cheltenham. Who will Fahy turn to for Morning Assembly now iyo? Looks like Ruby has a ride
Fahy's horses are going well and I am sure Davy Russell will be pushing to bring him to Cheltenham. Who will Fahy turn to for Morning Assembly now iyo? Looks like Ruby has a ride
mayo
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Another Fenton quote maybe a glimmer in this
“He’s absolutely fine after his run. I have a feeling that maybe I didn’t have him at his best,” said Fenton.
“I have a gut feeling he just wasn’t in tip-top form. Let’s hope we can get him back on track.
“It’s Cheltenham next for him. That’s where we’d like to end up.
“The Neptune would probably look the more obvious one, but we have made no decision yet.”
“He’s absolutely fine after his run. I have a feeling that maybe I didn’t have him at his best,” said Fenton.
“I have a gut feeling he just wasn’t in tip-top form. Let’s hope we can get him back on track.
“It’s Cheltenham next for him. That’s where we’d like to end up.
“The Neptune would probably look the more obvious one, but we have made no decision yet.”
mayo
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added a piece from GG to http://www.fatjockey.com/forum/showthread.php?1954-The-Tullow-Tank-fentons-finest/page2 yer man has aright go at Danny Mullins
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Kevin Blake at it too
Plenty of comment was made about the ride he received and there is no doubt that Ruby Walsh gave a tactical master class on Vautour and unquestionably outrode Danny Mullins on The Tullow Tank in terms of positioning.
However, while the result very much went Ruby’s way, I wouldn’t like to be giving up on The Tullow Tank just yet. A tactically-run race was never going to show him to best effect and he also didn’t make Mullins’ job any easier by seeming to lug right-handed down the backstraight.
At the start of the season there was a theory that The Tullow Tank needed to go right-handed, as he had hung badly right when beaten in two starts on left-handed tracks last season. That theory had largely gone away after he won at Naas and Leopardstown this season. However, the two occasions on which he hung last season came on testing ground and Sunday was the first time since then that he had encountered testing ground on a left-handed track. He is quite a good moving horse and there is every chance that the surface as much as the direction of the track that causes him to hang.
His connections hinted that they may run in the Neptune Novices’ Hurdle rather than the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle following that defeat, but I feel that would be an overreaction to Sunday’s defeat. The Supreme Novices’ Hurdle will almost certainly be run at an end-to-end gallop on a much sounder surface, which is a world away from what transpired on Sunday and will suit him much better. A strong stayer at the trip is what is ideally required for the Supreme and I would feel that he has serious prospects of reversing form with Vautour if allowed to take his chance in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.
Plenty of comment was made about the ride he received and there is no doubt that Ruby Walsh gave a tactical master class on Vautour and unquestionably outrode Danny Mullins on The Tullow Tank in terms of positioning.
However, while the result very much went Ruby’s way, I wouldn’t like to be giving up on The Tullow Tank just yet. A tactically-run race was never going to show him to best effect and he also didn’t make Mullins’ job any easier by seeming to lug right-handed down the backstraight.
At the start of the season there was a theory that The Tullow Tank needed to go right-handed, as he had hung badly right when beaten in two starts on left-handed tracks last season. That theory had largely gone away after he won at Naas and Leopardstown this season. However, the two occasions on which he hung last season came on testing ground and Sunday was the first time since then that he had encountered testing ground on a left-handed track. He is quite a good moving horse and there is every chance that the surface as much as the direction of the track that causes him to hang.
His connections hinted that they may run in the Neptune Novices’ Hurdle rather than the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle following that defeat, but I feel that would be an overreaction to Sunday’s defeat. The Supreme Novices’ Hurdle will almost certainly be run at an end-to-end gallop on a much sounder surface, which is a world away from what transpired on Sunday and will suit him much better. A strong stayer at the trip is what is ideally required for the Supreme and I would feel that he has serious prospects of reversing form with Vautour if allowed to take his chance in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.
skippymac6
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Yeah I'd certainly like to see TTT stay for the supreme, he might not win it but I'd at least get a run for my money. His jumping would have to improve for sure if he was to win any race at the festival though.
Yeah Mayo I'd have to imagine that Davy would be approached for the ride on both Morning Assembley and Western Boy. All the Top Jocks have rides in both but what does Geraghty have in the RSA -- pretty much nothing off the top of my head. That said he has Josses Hill and West Wizard (possibly) for the Supreme so Fahy might just want to give both to Davy.
Yeah Mayo I'd have to imagine that Davy would be approached for the ride on both Morning Assembley and Western Boy. All the Top Jocks have rides in both but what does Geraghty have in the RSA -- pretty much nothing off the top of my head. That said he has Josses Hill and West Wizard (possibly) for the Supreme so Fahy might just want to give both to Davy.
Josses Hill might be a bit overlooked for this, his form over hurdles is pretty solid and there might be too much being read into the Faugheen bumper loss. Western Boy could be very useful too. Id be shocked if Fahy hasnt made a mistake by not getting a run into Morning Assembly so doesnt matter who rides now.
For all you punters with Tullow Tank slips for the Supreme ( McCoy agrees this is the race for him) 
Willie Mullins has a great team for Cheltenham and Vautour added to it with his win in the Deliotte. He was another I was impressed with given the way he beat The Tullow Tank and he is definitely a player in the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. There has been no outstanding star in the UK this year amongst the two-mile novice hurdlers so Vautour has to be the one to beat. I wouldn’t give up on The Tullow Tank and I am not sure he needs to be stepped up in trip either. He won well over two miles at Christmas and I don’t think he was at his best over the weekend to be fair. I still think he is a good horse and needs respecting whatever trip he runs over at The Festival.
Willie Mullins has a great team for Cheltenham and Vautour added to it with his win in the Deliotte. He was another I was impressed with given the way he beat The Tullow Tank and he is definitely a player in the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. There has been no outstanding star in the UK this year amongst the two-mile novice hurdlers so Vautour has to be the one to beat. I wouldn’t give up on The Tullow Tank and I am not sure he needs to be stepped up in trip either. He won well over two miles at Christmas and I don’t think he was at his best over the weekend to be fair. I still think he is a good horse and needs respecting whatever trip he runs over at The Festival.
Welcome back Cheltenham. Thanks for splitting out my McCoy blog tweet...been tied up in work for last few days
No worries Vic - though the TTT fans would like to know they are in good company.
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Ruby
I’ve heard it said, and also read, that Vautour got an easy lead on his way to beating The Tullow Tank, but I don’t see it like that at all.
I would have liked it if he had settled a bit better, but Vautour bucked out, made all and jumped brilliantly.
Danny Mullins, on The Tullow Tank, and I took an eternity to pull up our horses and I wouldn’t fall off my chair if they both won at Cheltenham. The fast pace of the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle will clearly suit Vautour.
I’ve heard it said, and also read, that Vautour got an easy lead on his way to beating The Tullow Tank, but I don’t see it like that at all.
I would have liked it if he had settled a bit better, but Vautour bucked out, made all and jumped brilliantly.
Danny Mullins, on The Tullow Tank, and I took an eternity to pull up our horses and I wouldn’t fall off my chair if they both won at Cheltenham. The fast pace of the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle will clearly suit Vautour.
The Cheltenham Festival kicks off on Tuesday 11th March with the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, a grade 1 over 2M 110 yards. This race has been very good to the Irish in recent years with 9 of the last 15 winners being trained in Ireland.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 0-1-6
5yo: 4-13-88
6yo: 5-5-70
7yo: 1-1-20
8yo+: 0-1-4
No strong trends on ages, 9 of the last 10 winners were aged 5 or 6, but those age groups represented 84.5% of the total runners. The last 2 winners aged older than 6 were trained in Ireland and owned by J P McManus.
Gender
Mares (0-1-6) have gained 1 place from 6 runners in last 10 years. Like A Butterfly in 2002 was last female winner, and both female hurdlers to make the frame since 2000 had won a grade 1 or 2 hurdle.
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners ran in the past 55 days
8 of 10 winners won last time out (2 exceptions placed)
8 of 10 winners (last 6) posted an RPR of 137+ last time out
10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times over hurdles since August
10 of 10 winners won at least half their hurdle starts that season
9 of 10 winners had not finished worst that 3rd in completed hurdles races that season (exception was 4th in the grade 1 Christmas Hurdle)
6 of 10 winners had finished in the first 4 in a grade 1 hurdle
8 of 10 winners had won a bumper (other 2 were flat bred rated 86+ on the level)
2 of 10 winners had won at Cheltenham (6 others were having first course start & other two finished 5th & 2nd in previous Champion Bumper)
Other Races
Deloitte Novices Hurdle winner (Vautour): 131 (2-1-3)
Rossington Main Novice Hurdle winner (Zamdy Man): 31 (1-1-2)
British Stallion Studs EBF NH Novices' Hurdle winner (Ballyalton): 610U2 (1-1-5)
Champion Bumper winner (Briar Hill): 75341 (1-1-5)
Tolworth Hurdle winner (Royal Boy): 01 (1-0-2)
I.N.H. Stallion Owners EBF Novice Hurdle winner (Wicklow Brave): 81 (1-0-2)
Punchestown Champion Bumper winner (The Liquidator): 501 (1-0-3)
Royal Bond Novice Hurdle winner (The Tullow Tank): 200373 (0-3-6)
Betfair Hurdle winner (Splash Of Ginge): 252 (0-2-3)
Jack Dee Here On 31st October Maiden Hurdle winner (Lac Fontana): 3 (0-1-1)
Future Champions Novice Hurdle winner (The Tullow Tank): U03 (0-1-3)
GL Events Owen Brown Novices' Hurdle winner (Zamdy Man): 0P2 (0-1-3)
Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle winner (Vautour): 803 (0-1-3)
Kennel Gate Novices' Hurdle winner (Irving): P925 (0-1-4)
Tony Jones 60th Birthday Bash Maiden Hurdle winner (Josses Hill): 40 (0-0-2)
Bookmakers Bar At Bewleys Hotel Leopardstown Maiden Hurdle winner (Clondaw Court): 85 (0-0-2)
William Hill - On Your Mobile Novices' Hurdle winner (Sea Lord): 090 (0-0-3)
bet365 Novices' Hurdle winner (Volnay De Thaix): 0065 (0-0-4)
Thorntons Recycling Maiden Hurdle winner (Western Boy): 5000 (0-0-4)
Paddy Power Maiden Hurdle winner (Double Irish): 6940 (0-0-4)
Sharp Novices' Hurdle winner (The Liquidator): 00409 (0-0-5)
3 of 10 winners (last 3) ran in previous year's Cheltenham Champion Bumper, finishing 251
2 of 5 British-trained winners ran in Cash Out Your Saturday Multiples With Betfair last time, finishing 31
2 of 5 British-trained winners ran in British Stallion Studs EBF NH Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham, finishing 1F
2 of 5 British-trained winners ran in previous season's John Smith's Bumper, finishing 90
2 of 5 Irish-trained winners ran in Deloitte Novice Hurdle last time, finishing 11
Trainers
Irish-trained horses (5-5-61) have taken 5 of the last 10 renewals.
Paul Nicholls (2-1-12) has trained the winner twice in past 10 years, if you only count his runners which were sent off at 10/1 or shorter, he’s had 2 winners and 1 second from 5 runners.
Willie Mullins (2-0-15) trained the winner in 2007 & 2013.
Philip Hobbs (1-1-8), Noel Meade (1-1-8) and Donald McCain (1-0-2) have all saddled the winner in past 5 years.
Nicky Henderson (0-7-16) has seen 7 of his 16 runners make the frame.
Price
Recent trend has been towards longer prices with 6 of the last 9 winners going off 10/1 or bigger, including a 40/1 winner.
Favourites (2-3-12) have won just 1 of the last 10 giving a level stakes loss of 5.50. You have to go back to 2004 for last winning favourite.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Won last time out in the past 55 days
- Posted an RPR of 137+ last time
- Run in 2 to 4 hurdles this season and won at least half those starts
- Never finished outside first 3 over hurdles
- Finished in the first 4 in a grade 1 hurdle
- Won a bumper or rated 86+ on the flat
- Finished in first 5 in 2013 Champion Bumper
- Deloitte Novice Hurdle winners do well
- Trained by Paul Nicholls, Philip Hobbs, Nicky Henderson or in Ireland
- See more at: http://racecaller.com/horse-racing-...e-trends-2014-1391997784#sthash.rFwSHgqO.dpuf
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 0-1-6
5yo: 4-13-88
6yo: 5-5-70
7yo: 1-1-20
8yo+: 0-1-4
No strong trends on ages, 9 of the last 10 winners were aged 5 or 6, but those age groups represented 84.5% of the total runners. The last 2 winners aged older than 6 were trained in Ireland and owned by J P McManus.
Gender
Mares (0-1-6) have gained 1 place from 6 runners in last 10 years. Like A Butterfly in 2002 was last female winner, and both female hurdlers to make the frame since 2000 had won a grade 1 or 2 hurdle.
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners ran in the past 55 days
8 of 10 winners won last time out (2 exceptions placed)
8 of 10 winners (last 6) posted an RPR of 137+ last time out
10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times over hurdles since August
10 of 10 winners won at least half their hurdle starts that season
9 of 10 winners had not finished worst that 3rd in completed hurdles races that season (exception was 4th in the grade 1 Christmas Hurdle)
6 of 10 winners had finished in the first 4 in a grade 1 hurdle
8 of 10 winners had won a bumper (other 2 were flat bred rated 86+ on the level)
2 of 10 winners had won at Cheltenham (6 others were having first course start & other two finished 5th & 2nd in previous Champion Bumper)
Other Races
Deloitte Novices Hurdle winner (Vautour): 131 (2-1-3)
Rossington Main Novice Hurdle winner (Zamdy Man): 31 (1-1-2)
British Stallion Studs EBF NH Novices' Hurdle winner (Ballyalton): 610U2 (1-1-5)
Champion Bumper winner (Briar Hill): 75341 (1-1-5)
Tolworth Hurdle winner (Royal Boy): 01 (1-0-2)
I.N.H. Stallion Owners EBF Novice Hurdle winner (Wicklow Brave): 81 (1-0-2)
Punchestown Champion Bumper winner (The Liquidator): 501 (1-0-3)
Royal Bond Novice Hurdle winner (The Tullow Tank): 200373 (0-3-6)
Betfair Hurdle winner (Splash Of Ginge): 252 (0-2-3)
Jack Dee Here On 31st October Maiden Hurdle winner (Lac Fontana): 3 (0-1-1)
Future Champions Novice Hurdle winner (The Tullow Tank): U03 (0-1-3)
GL Events Owen Brown Novices' Hurdle winner (Zamdy Man): 0P2 (0-1-3)
Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle winner (Vautour): 803 (0-1-3)
Kennel Gate Novices' Hurdle winner (Irving): P925 (0-1-4)
Tony Jones 60th Birthday Bash Maiden Hurdle winner (Josses Hill): 40 (0-0-2)
Bookmakers Bar At Bewleys Hotel Leopardstown Maiden Hurdle winner (Clondaw Court): 85 (0-0-2)
William Hill - On Your Mobile Novices' Hurdle winner (Sea Lord): 090 (0-0-3)
bet365 Novices' Hurdle winner (Volnay De Thaix): 0065 (0-0-4)
Thorntons Recycling Maiden Hurdle winner (Western Boy): 5000 (0-0-4)
Paddy Power Maiden Hurdle winner (Double Irish): 6940 (0-0-4)
Sharp Novices' Hurdle winner (The Liquidator): 00409 (0-0-5)
3 of 10 winners (last 3) ran in previous year's Cheltenham Champion Bumper, finishing 251
2 of 5 British-trained winners ran in Cash Out Your Saturday Multiples With Betfair last time, finishing 31
2 of 5 British-trained winners ran in British Stallion Studs EBF NH Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham, finishing 1F
2 of 5 British-trained winners ran in previous season's John Smith's Bumper, finishing 90
2 of 5 Irish-trained winners ran in Deloitte Novice Hurdle last time, finishing 11
Trainers
Irish-trained horses (5-5-61) have taken 5 of the last 10 renewals.
Paul Nicholls (2-1-12) has trained the winner twice in past 10 years, if you only count his runners which were sent off at 10/1 or shorter, he’s had 2 winners and 1 second from 5 runners.
Willie Mullins (2-0-15) trained the winner in 2007 & 2013.
Philip Hobbs (1-1-8), Noel Meade (1-1-8) and Donald McCain (1-0-2) have all saddled the winner in past 5 years.
Nicky Henderson (0-7-16) has seen 7 of his 16 runners make the frame.
Price
Recent trend has been towards longer prices with 6 of the last 9 winners going off 10/1 or bigger, including a 40/1 winner.
Favourites (2-3-12) have won just 1 of the last 10 giving a level stakes loss of 5.50. You have to go back to 2004 for last winning favourite.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Won last time out in the past 55 days
- Posted an RPR of 137+ last time
- Run in 2 to 4 hurdles this season and won at least half those starts
- Never finished outside first 3 over hurdles
- Finished in the first 4 in a grade 1 hurdle
- Won a bumper or rated 86+ on the flat
- Finished in first 5 in 2013 Champion Bumper
- Deloitte Novice Hurdle winners do well
- Trained by Paul Nicholls, Philip Hobbs, Nicky Henderson or in Ireland
- See more at: http://racecaller.com/horse-racing-...e-trends-2014-1391997784#sthash.rFwSHgqO.dpuf