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Supreme Novice Hurdle 2019

different days
different races
horse improves
horse has off days
different jockeys
different tactics
horse stumbles
horse makes mistake
etc etc etc.
 
Scooby91 said:
I answered with fact.

Grand sancy ran in a similar handicap of 136 with a 5 pounds claimer.

Why diddnt he win like that? He ran his race there is no excuses.
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what price would sceau royal have been running off 139 ?
 
quevega said:
what price would sceau royal have been running off 139 ?
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That is a completely pointless argument.

You can see the handicap with grand sancy right there.

Watch the race. He ran his race.


Sceau royal was running a hurdles prep for his qmcc run.


These are all facts.
I'll leave it at that. As it's getting silly.
 
Scooby91 said:
That is a completely pointless argument.

You can see the handicap with grand sancy right there.

Watch the race. He ran his race.


Sceau royal was running a hurdles prep for his qmcc run.


These are all facts.
I'll leave it at that. As it's getting silly.
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Yep, we should shut up now. I agree. cos you'll keep swerving.
But the fact is Grand sancy is going to be rated around 150 now.
after his factual run yesterday,
beating horses factually rated 154 and 150 horses
the handicap run is in the past.
most horse have runs that don't show them to their best.
 
quevega said:
we could go on forever like this though.
Blu cavalier lost in a seller in his previous race to a horse rated 116.
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we could, but i dont intend to :highly_amused: BC is a 2 miler.
Grand Sancy got a good ride from the front in a more tactical race yesterday. Where as Al Dancer did a lot wrong yesterday and turned one of the best handicaps of the season into a procession. AD winning the betfair is far more relatable to what will happen in the supreme imo
 
Arkle said:
Is al dancer winning this then scoob?
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I'll have to see the line up on the day.
And if angels breath goes here or the ballymore.

I think AB is very good. Needs to confirm that in a few days. I know hendo will say supreme after that. But I believe it will go right down to the wire.

If angels breath dosent run here. Then I'll side with al dancer. It may just be that al dancer dancer is better anyway. But I'll reserve judgement. Until I see what angels breath can do and where he goes.

High class problem for the owner to have. Nicky will be begging him to go supreme. We'll see if he gives in or not.
 
Scooby91 said:
I'll have to see the line up on the day.
And if angels breath goes here or the ballymore.

I think AB is very good. Needs to confirm that in a few days. I know hendo will say supreme after that. But I believe it will go right down to the wire.

If angels breath dosent run here. Then I'll side with al dancer. It may just be that al dancer dancer is better anyway. But I'll reserve judgement. Until I see what angels breath can do and where he goes.

High class problem for the owner to have. Nicky will be begging him to go supreme. We'll see if he gives in or not.
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Think I mentioned this previously
I’m told that Dai will go along with NH, do you know Scooby if that is no longer the case?
 
Humble Pie said:
Think I mentioned this previously
I’m told that Dai will go along with NH, do you know Scooby if that is no longer the case?
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Well he deffinately told NTD to try and go 2 1/2 with al dancer. But they've sorted that yesterday as hes an out and out 2 miler. And He's said in no uncertain terms that he deffinately goes supreme now.

He's also said he wants them split. So he'll now be telling hendo he wants angels breath in the ballymore. And that's a much harder task for hendo. As he's a ptp winner. You know for a fact the trip would be no bother. You could easily argue, facts based, that he could be better over the longer trip.
 
TC2 said:
we could, but i dont intend to :highly_amused: BC is a 2 miler.
Grand Sancy got a good ride from the front in a more tactical race yesterday. Where as Al Dancer did a lot wrong yesterday and turned one of the best handicaps of the season into a procession. AD winning the betfair is far more relatable to what will happen in the supreme imo
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Let's be honest, it was a crap betfair. Half the normal field and a two horse race according to the betting. I find it unlikely Al Dancer is going to be the first ever horse to do the double. I'm no Norvill but that's a powerful trend - the best 2m novices keep novice company.

Not that I mind, the bookies got the short-priced fav they've been drooling for. Makes the market for the rest.
 
Scooby91 said:
Well he deffinately told NTD to try and go 2 1/2 with al dancer. But they've sorted that yesterday as hes an out and out 2 miler. And He's said in no uncertain terms that he deffinately goes supreme now.

He's also said he wants them split. So he'll now be telling hendo he wants angels breath in the ballymore. And that's a much harder task for hendo. As he's a ptp winner. You know for a fact the trip would be no bother. You could easily argue, facts based, that he could be better over the longer trip.
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Thanks
Mindful of what I type here but there are v strong personalities in this equation
:-)
 
bobbyvalentino said:
Let's be honest, it was a crap betfair. Half the normal field and a two horse race according to the betting. I find it unlikely Al Dancer is going to be the first ever horse to do the double. I'm no Norvill but that's a powerful trend - the best 2m novices keep novice company.

Not that I mind, the bookies got the short-priced fav they've been drooling for. Makes the market for the rest.
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Good luck with your bets.
Grand sancy ran in a very simular handicap. And ran his race.

Slightly different result.
 
Arkle said:
Al dancer was good but what did he beat dirt wait and see AB when he comes out again

Watched it back again never seen a bigger overaction in my life this horse won’t win the surpreme
Look at the horses in behind come on
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Looked at past runnings of this race and it was by far the worst renewal ever.
There were only 5 horses rated above 140 in the race, including Al Dancer. highest rated was 145.
Grand Sancy won the Kingwell against four experienced horses all rated above 145.
Kalashnikov won the betfair and had 11 rated over 140 to beat.
MTOY race had 11 also.

But he won it well enough and I couldn't rule it out.
 
bobbyvalentino said:
Let's be honest, it was a crap betfair. Half the normal field and a two horse race according to the betting. I find it unlikely Al Dancer is going to be the first ever horse to do the double. I'm no Norvill but that's a powerful trend - the best 2m novices keep novice company.

Not that I mind, the bookies got the short-priced fav they've been drooling for. Makes the market for the rest.
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just been typing something similar.
amen to that
 
Scooby91 said:
Good luck with your bets.
Grand sancy ran in a very simular handicap. And ran his race.

Slightly different result.
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booby hasn't mentioned grand sancy scooby.
and how the f**k do you know it ran it's race for certain ?
winning the race yesterday suggests not.
And I'm not saying for a minute either horse will win the supreme I simply used it in the first instance as an example of form in comparison to prices etc. overreactions etc.
 
quevega said:
booby hasn't mentioned grand sancy scooby.
and how the f**k do you know it ran it's race for certain ?
winning the race yesterday suggests not.
And I'm not saying for a minute either horse will win the supreme I simply used it in the first instance as an example of form in comparison to prices etc. overreactions etc.
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I never said he did. I said good luck with his bets.

And then said the race he was putting down. There's alot of people on related form to grand sancy. So he's putting rhat further down.

Grand sancy ran his race plain and simple. Watch it. Or ask Paul on Twitter. I don't see the excuse.

Why you have to swear to put your point across
Is quite embarrassing. We're on a racing forum. To discuss horse racing. There really is no need.
 
Just been looking at the preview - weatherbys cheltenham guide - Sporting life website.
Their very strong on the 4-5 hurdles runs , winner last time out and winner of a grade 1
if your'e wanting the Supreme winner .
 
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