Ryanair 2019

[Quevega]

Just hit Disko @ 20/1 anyrace with skybet

assume you've not heard or using up a freebet. Or no B365 account avaialable

He's 40-1 NRNB Gold Cup with B365.
If you ask for price for ryanair I'd be surprised they wouldn't offer above 20's.

If he comes back and runs well then I'd be surprised he goes handicapping, if he runs badly then you'll get 20's ish NRNB for the handicaps when they're priced up.

 

[Quevega]

Didn't bother checking his rating, but at 165 I think handicaps are probably out of the question. But I suppose you never know.

 

[somer1]

Free bet and some cash.20s any race im happy.

 

[jack1092]

Right so if Footpad flopped again at Christmas you would be rushing to back 8/1 Ryanair? Good luck to you.

Not what i was pointing out really- as for the flopping again, i would argue jumping a fence bad and picking up an injury doesn't equate to flopping but that's just my view.
He's 6-5 for Xmas, so the chances are he'll win + then take on Altior.

The NRNB Kev is talking about isn't bad..

 

[jack1092]

Here.

Yes of course, as a previous winner and 2nd last time.

Haven't backed him though, expect him to be the Mullins' second string this season.

After the handicapper puts Frodon up after winning off 164 they'll have to think twice....

Frodon is likely to be rated higher than UDS....what a world we live in.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

After the handicapper puts Frodon up after winning off 164 they'll have to think twice....

Frodon is likely to be rated higher than UDS....what a world we live in.

Frodon is a progressive 6, going on 7 year old, UDS, you would say is now regressing given he will be 11 in a couple of weeks.

UDS still had a peak rating of 172 in his prime, though for me I take all ratings with a pinch of salt anyway.

The BHA website has Frodon as 169 now, 1lb higher than stablemate Politologue.

 

[jack1092]

Frodon is a progressive 6, going on 7 year old, UDS, you would say is now regressing given he will be 11 in a couple of weeks.

UDS still had a peak rating of 172 in his prime, though for me I take all ratings with a pinch of salt anyway.

The BHA website has Frodon as 169 now, 1lb higher than stablemate Politologue.

UDS ran a very good race behind Altior and before that won at Punchestown in a G1.

Age suggests he is regressing but his figures don't.

Frodon's age doesn't come into it really, hes a amazing horse, but has come up short plenty at the top. The handicapping system is all wrong- to be a 169 horse he should really be a G1 horse in open company.

Form in G1 open company?

5/6 37Ls beaten
3/7 18L beaten

open G2
Beaten 10.5 Ls

Even his graded novice form can be considered sketchy....

I know you are fully aware of this form etc. but he's a tip top handicapper that is now rated higher than a 9 time G1 winner who hasn't shown signs off his form dropping off- yet anyway.

As far Politologue being lower is also hilarious.

Handicap system clearly inflated....

 

[ComplyOrDie]

UDS ran a very good race behind Altior and before that won at Punchestown in a G1.

Age suggests he is regressing but his figures don't.

Frodon's age doesn't come into it really, hes a amazing horse, but has come up short plenty at the top. The handicapping system is all wrong- to be a 169 horse he should really be a G1 horse in open company.

Form in G1 open company?

5/6 37Ls beaten
3/7 18L beaten

open G2
Beaten 10.5 Ls

Even his graded novice form can be considered sketchy....

I know you are fully aware of this form etc. but he's a tip top handicapper that is now rated higher than a 9 time G1 winner who hasn't shown signs off his form dropping off- yet anyway.

As far Politologue being lower is also hilarious.

Handicap system clearly inflated....

Oh I agree, as I have said in plenty of posts and the above, I take ratings with a pinch of salt, I was more making (or at least trying to) the point of using UDS as a marker really, given where they are at the stages in their respective careers.

 

[Hurricane fly]

I do wonder if inflated ratings for handicappers might mean we will see some graded horses in handicaps now.

There’s some really good prize money about and they will be giving less and less weight away

 

[Quevega]

Ratings are there as a guide to the level of ability the horse has shown. But it pays to delve deeper when looking to place a bet as in some cases, like Frodon, the handicapper has little option but to increase his rating after that performance as he won so well.
Personally I'd have rated the race as him running to his mark and then rated the others accordingly, as he was top rated anyway.

If he keeps giving him 5lbs every time he wins a handicap for beating horses rated in the 140's by 1 and a half lengths he'll be the first 200 rated horse.

Horse can only realistically be given higher ratings if given the chance to earn them, so many graded horses who never go for handicaps off top weight will struggle to get higher ratings, novices sticking to their class and not running in handicaps will struggle to achieve high ratings unless smashing opposition by multiple lengths.

Novices who run in handicaps during the season will often be top rated come the festival but not necessarily the best horses.

 

[boopa]

Frodon is still only 6. It's possible he has improved. Bryony said he is running more efficiently.

 

[jack1092]

Frodon is still only 6. It's possible he has improved. Bryony said he is running more efficiently.

A 6YO with 29 runs to him name wouldn't strike me as the typical improving type but alls possible!

Still doesn't explain why he's now higher than UDS + Politiologue....

 

[Quevega]

Frodon is still only 6. It's possible he has improved. Bryony said he is running more efficiently.

Definitely possible, but is 169 a reflection of all his known form on the racecourse?.
Altior would be giving him 6lb in a handicap, what odds would you want for that match up ?

 

[Hurricane fly]

I think there’s a reluctance to admit how far ahead the top horses are.

It doesn’t even have to be via giving the top horse 190+ ratings, rather being frank about what level the handicapped horses actually are

 

[boopa]

A 6YO with 29 runs to him name wouldn't strike me as the typical improving type but alls possible!

Still doesn't explain why he's now higher than UDS + Politiologue....

That's a problem for the handicapper.

His rating is inflated because he's beating handicappers with inflated ratings. He could have improved and still be out of his depth in G1 company.

 

[Folski]

Definitely possible, but is 169 a reflection of all his known form on the racecourse?.
Altior would be giving him 6lb in a handicap, what odds would you want for that match up ?

That is plain stupid. Altior would beat Frodon by a parish.

Where would you actually get interested 16lb? 20? 25?

 

[jack1092]

I think there’s a reluctance to admit how far ahead the top horses are.

It doesn’t even have to be via giving the top horse 190+ ratings, rather being frank about what level the handicapped horses actually are

Yep. Part of the whole handicapping issue is over handicapping the lower horses in GB....when Ire horses come over, they have to give them lumps to balance the whole thing out, and "lumps" still doesn't stop them, showing how inflated the whole system is!

 

[jack1092]

That is plain stupid. Altior would beat Frodon by a parish.

Where would you actually get interested 16lb? 20? 25?

something like that anyway! UDS getting weight as well would be amusing 11yo or not!

 

[Quevega]

That is plain stupid. Altior would beat Frodon by a parish.

Where would you actually get interested 16lb? 20? 25?

I'd say it's a coin toss at about 20lb.

 

[Kevloaf]

I'd say it's a coin toss at about 20lb.

I'd be all in on Altior at evens giving away 20 lbs.


They touch on this issue on the Final Furlong Pod this week (not Altior giving him 20 lbs - but handicapping in general) and it's really difficult not to agree with every single word of it.

The just of it, is that Frodon was effectively well-in, because the horses beneath him have inflated ratings. Obviously Frodon does too, but not as big a gap between him and what he should be, as what he is and grade 1 company. (That was my interpretation of the points anyway!)