Cheltenham Bumper 2019

[SeanRock]

Backed Midnight Run in the listed bumper tomorrow at Navan and for this at 33’s.

Content enough with that run today, he traveled beautifully, thought he might give the favorite a race of it but maybe just shy of fitness at the business end of things and Jamie Codd is probably value for a length or two over Hamilton in the last few furlongs. If Joseph sends him down the Champion Bumper route id be confident of him squeezing out some improvement. Bet365 cut him to 20’s so can cash out for small profit down the line if he’s being saved for next season.

Envoi Allen looks a proper staying chaser in the making. Beautiful NH sort he’s definitely one to look forward to over fences. Classic case of whatever he does over hurdles being a bonus.

 

[Gilly]

I cashed out.

I don't expect him to run. Elliott doesn't usually change his mind and he's said he is one for next season. I don't think Malone Road changes things and I don't think the owners are in it for "short-term wins" (So they won't just run Envoi Allen if it isn't right for the horse just to make up for MR being injured).

If comments start changing regarding him running then in the New Year, when NRNB is available, I'd consider putting the "profit" I've cashed out, on him win only. I think it's unlikely I'd do that though

Ok kev, I've cashed out, if you like humble pie you watch yourself around 5.25 on that Wednesday

 

[westcountry1]

I cashed out.

I don't expect him to run. Elliott doesn't usually change his mind and he's said he is one for next season. I don't think Malone Road changes things and I don't think the owners are in it for "short-term wins" (So they won't just run Envoi Allen if it isn't right for the horse just to make up for MR being injured).

If comments start changing regarding him running then in the New Year, when NRNB is available, I'd consider putting the "profit" I've cashed out, on him win only. I think it's unlikely I'd do that though

I think you are spot on with your views here. I took a look at Envoi Allen at the sales and whilst he stood out as an outstanding model he seemed something of a shell that will only improve in the coming years...were he mine I would never consider running him in the festival bumper looking to the longer term.

 

[jonthehammer]

Didn't Elliott say after Envoi's first run he would have one more and be locked away and wont be going to Cheltenham?

Now hes saying he will have another 1 run and PROBABLY wont be going to Cheltenham.

Hmmmm, maybe he will change his mind, who knows.

 

[robith]

I've one point on envoi allen, and can currently cash out for 4. However, my points are a fiver, and tbh I'd rather have a fiver at 33s with a slim chance than £20 in my pocket. In my week comes down to £20, it probably hasn't gone too well!

 

[Kevloaf]

I've one point on envoi allen, and can currently cash out for 4. However, my points are a fiver, and tbh I'd rather have a fiver at 33s with a slim chance than £20 in my pocket. In my week comes down to £20, it probably hasn't gone too well!

Understandable.

Sometimes the theory of why something is the right percentage call, doesn't really matter in reality.

 

[JackieMoon33]

Article regarding Cheveley Park. Whilst I think that they will listen to their trainers advice with regards to some horses, the amounts they have spent indicates they are looking towards the big festivals and races. They were after all buying horses at the eleventh hour to run in the Grand National over the last couple of years.

https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/cheveley-park-target-cheltenham/156184

 

[jack1092]

Very much doubt its Envoi Allen, who looks very much a Samcro/DD type bumper horse rather than a Cheltenham bumper horse.

Interesting article- Mullins + Elliot still have some to come out then + undoubtedly will be some worth a go at the festival.

Malone Road as i mentioned on here from Down Royal was much more of a speedy bumper horse than i expected given he's a point winner, and unless he comes back quicker, i doubt they'll stick EA in.

 

[bobbyvalentino]

Seeking advice...
How likely do we think Envoi Allen will turn up?
I've quite a bit on a 33s and he is currently sitting at 5s with my cash out looking fairly juicy..

With all the comments coming from codd and Elliot it does look like he'll skip the festival, but surely with the same owners as Malone Road, if MR misses chelt then surely EA will be considered?

I really dunno what to do.....

Why don't you cash out your stake and you have a tasty free bet running on him in case he turns up

 

[Scooby91]

Very much doubt its Envoi Allen, who looks very much a Samcro/DD type bumper horse rather than a Cheltenham bumper horse.

Interesting article- Mullins + Elliot still have some to come out then + undoubtedly will be some worth a go at the festival.

Malone Road as i mentioned on here from Down Royal was much more of a speedy bumper horse than i expected given he's a point winner, and unless he comes back quicker, i doubt they'll stick EA in.

They have

BEYONDTHESTORM NJH


Elliot

NHF
LARQUEBUSE
Malone road
Envoi allen

Mullins

NHF
On the ropes
Pragmatic

Novice hurdler allaho

 

[JackieMoon33]

Although it would only be hypothetical at this stage, my question would be that if, come March, none of the other horses they own have become realistic Cheltenham contenders, would they change their mind?

Although I’ve neither cashed out my bet nor hold it in high confidence, the point I’m trying to make is that there are far too many variables to consider before you try and get inside the owners heads and predict what they may do

 

[jack1092]

Who knows, Larquebuse could follow the mares bumper trend.....

Looking forward to the Mullins ones getting out..

 

[Quevega]

Lot of Focus on here for Elliott and Mullins horses, and rightly so.
But Ishkara Lady looked very good and is nicely bred.
Just won at Plumpton today in very impressive fashion, travelled in behind went very wide on home bend when asked and shot roughly 15-20 lengths clear under N Fehily.
No idea on plans or what it beat, but it was very good.

 

[Folski]

Lot of Focus on here for Elliott and Mullins horses, and rightly so.
But Ishkara Lady looked very good and is nicely bred.
Just won at Plumpton today in very impressive fashion, travelled in behind went very wide on home bend when asked and shot roughly 15-20 lengths clear under N Fehily.
No idea on plans or what it beat, but it was very good.

Saw it very impressive. Wasn't much money for it either.

 

[Kevloaf]

Saw it very impressive. Wasn't much money for it either.

Would much prefer it that way round though.

One of the most over-used and mis-leading bits of punditry I feel is "they must have fancied it last time as it was well backed" (or similar)

1. We will never KNOW who "they" is.
2. "They" might be wrong!

It's not a negative, but it's a self-fulfilling prophecy.



On a slightly similar note, I re-read this article with Barry Hills (https://www.racingpost.com/news/mor...my-golden-rules-for-successful-punting/129993) about his 'golden tips' for punting. The main one was "only back your own horses" - WEll what bloomin' use is that to 99% of the population! I also disagree, I'm sure Henderson thought L'ami Serge was a great horse until the ones popped over from across the water. Imagine him not taking into account any rivals. Nonsense.

 

[Leman14]

Threw my weekly Free £5 with SlyBet at "The Very Man" in this at 66/1

Giggi owned, so may or may not turn up (and priced accordingly) - but is 20's or 25's elsewhere.
Won it's bumper last week relatively comfortably and got a good mention in Mark Howards Book.

For the sake of a Free Fiver... why not!?!?

 

[Kevloaf]

Lot of Focus on here for Elliott and Mullins horses, and rightly so.
But Ishkara Lady looked very good and is nicely bred.
Just won at Plumpton today in very impressive fashion, travelled in behind went very wide on home bend when asked and shot roughly 15-20 lengths clear under N Fehily.
No idea on plans or what it beat, but it was very good.

I've done no research into this whatsoever, but would Harry Fry send a mare into the Cheltenham Bumper?

My pre-conceived opinion is that he loves to take his time with the good'uns he gets...


She's not quoted anywhere for Cheltenham, one for the tracker though, very nice performance. Then again, not one that'll be missed next time out is she...so I might not waste a tracker slot haha

 

[Middle_Of_March]

I've done no research into this whatsoever, but would Harry Fry send a mare into the Cheltenham Bumper?

My pre-conceived opinion is that he loves to take his time with the good'uns he gets...


She's not quoted anywhere for Cheltenham, one for the tracker though, very nice performance. Then again, not one that'll be missed next time out is she...so I might not waste a tracker slot haha

I watched If The Cap Fits win I’m good style two years ago, got him introduced to the bumper markets. Got 50/1. Got well involved.

Only for Fry to send him to Aintree instead

 

[Quevega]

I've done no research into this whatsoever, but would Harry Fry send a mare into the Cheltenham Bumper?

My pre-conceived opinion is that he loves to take his time with the good'uns he gets...


She's not quoted anywhere for Cheltenham, one for the tracker though, very nice performance. Then again, not one that'll be missed next time out is she...so I might not waste a tracker slot haha

Don't think any of the UK trainers send there mares here to be fair, even though the Irish have shown them that they can more than compete. Bit slow on the uptake these rural lads me thinks

 

[The Don]

Any news on energumene anyone?