2023 Handicaps

[Mighty]

tbh I don’t know why they don’t just finish the job and ban novices from festival handicaps. I for one would be ecstatic if they did.

100% agree.

PS - thanks Q for explaining. I can see the argument, but not sure I agree personally. Trying to avoid pocket talk as I have got some money on Gaelic for the Ballymore - just think it would make a mockery of the handicaps if he were allowed entry.

[Dandrew99]

That RPR is plain daft, see above.

Not sure daft is the right word, I wouldn't want to be the guy having to put a number on that performance. When you win by that far, it's massively open to interpretation, which means the UK handicapper could slam him. We had horses being given nearly a stone last season, I don't see why Gaelic Warrior wouldn't be in the same bracket.

But he's probably going to run again anyway, and I seriously doubt it will be with the handbrake on, so it probably won't matter.

[Outlaw]

Just reading the article on JP buying So Scottish and another horse out the yard of Emmet. It states his chase rating is 140(up 5 thou technically 8 as out the hcap lto, Boothill was risen 7) I haven't seen him entered anywhere so bar connections asking the capper directly can they give you a mark without entering for anything?

[Quevega]

They changed the number of runs for a reason. No matter how rational your logic may be the uk handicapper imo will annihilate any novice that appears to be slipping through the cracks, and if they don’t they are twats...with GW they have previous...fool me once shame on you ....fool me twice.....

State man is bordering on 170 and tritonic had to give him 4 pounds its making the sport look ridiculous.

tbh I don’t know why they don’t just finish the job and ban novices from festival handicaps. I for one would be ecstatic if they did.

He won't though, he'll be rationale most of the time. Annihilation is not rationale
That's his job.

I agree on the no novices in most cheltenham handicaps though.

Not so sure Gaelic Warrior getting chinned means the handicapper was totally fooled. Had he won the boodles by 86 lengths then I'd not only be richer, I'd agree as well.

And finally, Not all County winners or handicap winners go on to the same sort of level as State Man either, so not so sure it's an epidemic just yet. Most of them fail at graded level beyond Cheltenham. You get the odd one that progresses though.

[Quevega]

Not sure daft is the right word, I wouldn't want to be the guy having to put a number on that performance. When you win by that far, it's massively open to interpretation, which means the UK handicapper could slam him. We had horses being given nearly a stone last season, I don't see why Gaelic Warrior wouldn't be in the same bracket.

But he's probably going to run again anyway, and I seriously doubt it will be with the handbrake on, so it probably won't matter.

No - I said at the time that it was a difficult race to rate And was sceptical.
But - given the example I've given, It now looks daft.

[Lobos]

Looking at Q's analysis of the race G Warrior won and especially taking into account the next time runs of the horses in behind him, he doesn't appear to be up to Graded standard and the handicap route looks his only opportunity of winning anything at the festival. The bookies have played a blinder I reckon sucking every man and his dog into thinking he was the next Faugheen. We all forget he got beat last year off a light weight in what has turned out to be an average Boodles and yet we've gone back for more.

[Rooster Booster]

He won't though, he'll be rationale most of the time. Annihilation is not rationale
That's his job.

I agree on the no novices in most cheltenham handicaps though.

Not so sure Gaelic Warrior getting chinned means the handicapper was totally fooled. Had he won the boodles by 86 lengths then I'd not only be richer, I'd agree as well.

And finally, Not all County winners or handicap winners go on to the same sort of level as State Man either, so not so sure it's an epidemic just yet. Most of them fail at graded level beyond Cheltenham. You get the odd one that progresses though.

Again all very rational but this has now got emotional...they are trying to stop it and the change in number is just the thin end of the wedge ...their job is to be fair unless there is a different and overriding agenda and there are clear signs that there now is.

They are not stupid ....they know that there are a few trainers that have such enormous strength in depth with novices that they cannot stop this anymore with ‘rational’ methods.....and if they don’t know that then they are brain dead.

[Quevega]

Looking at Q's analysis of the race G Warrior won and especially taking into account the next time runs of the horses in behind him, he doesn't appear to be up to Graded standard and the handicap route looks his only opportunity of winning anything at the festival. The bookies have played a blinder I reckon sucking every man and his dog into thinking he was the next Faugheen. We all forget he got beat last year off a light weight in what has turned out to be an average Boodles and yet we've gone back for more.

Your best post ever
apart from the funny ones.

The RPR he got looks rogue and pure guesswork in hindsight and it's lulled the vast majority.
I don't think it will lull the handicapper like some people think. I'd be pretty sure he would not factor RPR's as part of his daily routine. He'll have his own methods.

However, like Dan mentioned, he'll run again soon and he could easily improve into graded level. I doubt Willie has consigned him to handicapper level just yet.
There's still hope for those Ballymore bets yet.

[Dandrew99]

No - I said at the time that it was a difficult race to rate And was sceptical.
But - given the example I've given, It now looks daft.

I agree, he beat Littel Flour by 86 lengths, who ran to 109 and 105 either side of that. Should really have been given 190ish

My point really is that nobody was talking about him as a handicapper a week ago, him not being declared for the Lawlors really doesn't mean that much, Willie is probably just splitting him and Grangeclare West, and he's got considerably more options than Grangeclare West (God it's annoying they're both called GW...).

He will almost definitely run again, which means the 134 he is currently on will probably be changed anyway, and then that will tell Willie whether he's a Supreme/Ballymore horse or a handicapper. I don't get why people are reading more into it than that to be honest. If it was an important race for Willie's Ballymore horses then I'd understand, but it isn't.

[Quevega]

Again all very rational but this has now got emotional...they are trying to stop it and the change in number is just the thin end of the wedge ...their job is to be fair unless there is a different and overriding agenda and there are clear signs that there now is.

They are not stupid ....they know that there are a few trainers that have such enormous strength in depth with novices that they cannot stop this anymore with ‘rational’ methods.....and if they don’t know that then they are brain dead.

But ever since racing's existed, and handicapping in particular, that's been the game.
To try and get one over the handicapper.
Obviously every now and then one gets through his net.
But like I said before, it's few and far between.
The UK handicappers had a really good year last year so his new methods of dropping them quicker seemed to have helped the competitiveness.

I think Dan Skelton may be the biggest piss taker in training at the minute when you look at a lot of his horses that have ran this year

[DenmanSacre]

I think Dan Skelton may be the biggest piss taker in training at the minute when you look at a lot of his horses that have ran this year

And he has an extra helping hand with Harry in the saddle.

[Lobos]

Will he run again though ?
If G West bolts up Sunday maybe Willie will think he can't beat G West , he can't beat Vega, he's not a Bartlett horse so............we'll go for a Handicap again and protect his rating.

[Dandrew99]

Will he run again though ?
If G West bolts up Sunday maybe Willie will think he can't beat G West , he can't beat Vega, he's not a Bartlett horse so............we'll go for a Handicap again and protect his rating.

Grangeclare might not bolt up Sunday Grangeclare might go Bartlett regardless
He might be able to beat Vega
He didn't win off 129 in the Boodles because he didn't have a prep run, I don't think Willie will put him away and make that mistake again

So many ifs buts and maybes before you can seriously start thinking he's a handicapper

[Lobos]

All this and I haven't backed him....

[Rooster Booster]

But ever since racing's existed, and handicapping in particular, that's been the game.
To try and get one over the handicapper.
Obviously every now and then one gets through his net.
But like I said before, it's few and far between.
The UK handicappers had a really good year last year so his new methods of dropping them quicker seemed to have helped the competitiveness.

I think Dan Skelton may be the biggest piss taker in training at the minute when you look at a lot of his horses that have ran this year

The difference now is one trainer has close to double figures in top novices and he is understandably using them to target festival handicaps ....this has got nothing to do with getting one over the handicapper this is about the ease with which novices can go under the radar...it’s not clever plotting its simply an advantage gained from simple strength in numbers.....

The history of things is irrelevant and if they are sitting there with their record books assessing how often this has happened in the last 10 years when the last three county winners have been novices ...again they are twats ...if they can’t see what the current and likely future reality is after SR, SM, GDC and GW (and they will know they dodged a bullet with him) then they are brain dead like I say. They know the current handicap system is impotent in preventing this...they have clearly recognised this hence the change to the number of runs ....if horses still get through they will take stronger measures or if necessary cheat.