Stayers Hurdle 2021

[ComplyOrDie]

Got a little bit on Thomas Darby at 66/1 too. Cheers for the heads up chaps

[robith]

Yeah they were very keen to refer very small stakes TD bets to a trader

[Istabraq]

Thomas Darby is a great spot but does no-one think he’ll have a quiet campaign with an eye on his mark and head to the Pertemps ?
He is clearly a talented horse and this is the most likely target but I read a comment (on someone’s diary page I think) saying the Stayera is the only option, surely that isn’t the case ?

[Hardy Eustace]

Thomas Darby is a great spot but does no-one think he’ll have a quiet campaign with an eye on his mark and head to the Pertemps ?
He is clearly a talented horse and this is the most likely target but I read a comment (on someone’s diary page I think) saying the Stayera is the only option, surely that isn’t the case ?

Possibly, but he is already rated 157 over hurdles so they would really need to get him down 10lbs to a stone. Certainly possible but the most likely option has to be the Stayers, IMO.

[Istabraq]

I think that’s the right assumption to make HE but this race has seen some excellent weight carrying performances in recent years, not sure he’d need to shave too much off that rating to be competitive in a Pertemps.
You’d like to think they’ll target the G1 prize but I couldn’t dismiss the possibility of a handicap coup...

[SamuelP]

I think that’s the right assumption to make HE but this race has seen some excellent weight carrying performances in recent years, not sure he’d need to shave too much off that rating to be competitive in a Pertemps.
You’d like to think they’ll target the G1 prize but I couldn’t dismiss the possibility of a handicap coup...

In the clip Murphy references the Paisley Park/Lisnagar Oscar route so, although I will never rule anything out, I believe the Stayers route will be the plan if all goes well with the horse

[archie]

Murphy had 4 years with Gordon which is the equivalent of an honours degree in OR manipulation. 157 strikes me as a little high anyway and I'm not convinced that he'll need 3 miles and the hill.

[Istabraq]

Murphy had 4 years with Gordon which is the equivalent of an honours degree in OR manipulation.

Very true archie....

[Kevloaf]

Maybe Mullins spent a few years with Gordon in order to get Saint Roi and Aramon handicapped

[archie]

Maybe Mullins spent a few years with Gordon in order to get Saint Roi and Aramon handicapped

Willie would be no shy novice at the black art but JP's campaign will normally be suggested by Frank Berry. Willie and Ruby were quite open about their view that Saint Roi was well handicapped. Aramon ran in 8, yes EIGHT, G1s prior to the County Hurdle. That is not the usual way of protecting a handicap mark and I'm inclined to think that the Supreme Racing fiasco affected him along with several others.

[Kevloaf]

Willie would be no shy novice at the black art but JP's campaign will normally be suggested by Frank Berry. Willie and Ruby were quite open about their view that Saint Roi was well handicapped. Aramon ran in 8, yes EIGHT, G1s prior to the County Hurdle. That is not the usual way of protecting a handicap mark and I'm inclined to think that the Supreme Racing fiasco affected him along with several others.

You're absolutely right. I was just poking the bear. I nearly went with something along the lines of suggestiong you get a horse in training with Gordon so you can experience that winning feeling a little more, but couldn't come up with anything witty enough .

[archie]

You're absolutely right.

You should know by now that I usually am.

[Saxon Warrior]

66-1 Thomas Darby
Decent offer I reckon

Well done on the price request, Q.
Double the price I thought he may be.

[Spectre]

I like the suggestion, but I’m overseas and frustrated that I can’t get a couple of points on. At worst he’ll make a great trade at some point. By the time I get back I suppose he’ll be half that price and I’ll think twice.

[Saxon Warrior]

I have had a good look at the history of the Stayers Hurdle this morning going deep (30 years winners) and then the more recent form.

MULTIPLE WINNERS -
My starting point was to think that the race has a rich history of multiple winners, and with three (Penhill, Paisley Park and Lisnagar Oscar) in the market for 2021 - could there be another dual winner?

Looking back over 30 years (1990-2020 excl 2001 no Festival) there have been Three Multiple winners, and the spread of their reigns was from 2002-2012, with none before and none since in that 30 year period.

Baracouda Won first time in 2002 aged 7 (french form, but OR of approx 170) at 13/8 Fav, then followed up the next year aged 8 at 9/4.

Inglis Drever began his winning in 2005 aged 6 (OR 157 at 5/1 3rd favourite), and won three out of four, he missed his second attempt in 2006 as he was injured in the Long Walk Hurdle at Christmas and missed the rest of the season. he also won aged 8 and 9.

Big Bucks took over in the aftermath of Inglis Drever's reign when winning for 4 years running from 2009-2012, his initial win aged 6 (OR 170 at 6/1 third fav), with his last win aged 9.

So the three multiple winners in the last 30 years, all came to their first win, aged 6, 6 and 7, all were in the first 3 in the betting, and all were rated 157-170 going into the race.
Also all won successive races, save for Inglis Drever who only missed one race in his run through mid-season injury (not failure at the Festival).

Looking at Penhill he has run at the Festival and been beaten since his win, so doesn't fit the profile, of the 3 multi-winners.

Paisley Park has run at the Festival and been beaten since his win, so doesn't fit the profile, of the 3 multi-winners.

Lisnagar Oscar hasn't had the chance to run at a Festival since his win, but did start this years race at 50/1 and OR 146, and came out of the race rated lower than the 3 multi-winners, so on that basis his 16/1 reflects his chances, as his profile isn't as strong at the debut winning form of the three previous multi-winners.

LONG LIST OF PREVIOUS WINNERS
Looking at the age of the last 30 winners the bare figures are:-
6yo - NINE
7yo - THIRTEEN
8yo - FIVE
9yo - THREE
10+ - NONE

So first look is that nothing aged over 9, in 30 running has won.

Next I took out the multi-winners age profiles, and only counted their initial winning age.
(This meant stripping out their follow up wins aged 7,8,8,8,9,9).

This left the debut winning ages of all horses in the last 30 years, over 24 runnings.
6yo - NINE
7yo - TWELVE
8yo - TWO
9yo - ONE

Looking at this further, the two 8 year-old debut wins of the Stayers Hurdle were both in photo-finishes (with a 5yo and a 6yo) in 1994 (with Balasani actually finishing second and won in a stewards enquiry) and 1999 (Anzum).

So in conclusion on age, historically being aged 6 and 7 has produced the new race winners 21 times out of 24.

Bringing this closer to 2020, since Big Bucks won his last Stayers in 2012 there have been 8 runnings.

2013 SOLWHIT (IRE) 9yo (running prior season in irish 2M-2M4F Grade 1 races)
- Celestial Halo 9yo (prior year, 9th in Champion Hurdle)
- Smad Place 6yo (prior year aged only 5, 3rd in Stayers)

2014 MORE OF THAT 6yo (Incredibly prior season he had only 1 hurdle race in his life with official rating 130)
- Annie Power 6yo (prior season won Grade 1 Mares Hurdle at Fairyhouse) W Mullins
- At Fishers Cross 7yo (prior season won the Bartlett)

2015 COLE HARDEN 6yo (prior season 7th in Ballymore, 2nd in Aintree 3M Grade 1 Novice)
- Saphir Du Rheu 6yo (prior season Handicap hurdler, season finished before Cheltenham)
- Zarkandar 8yo (prior season 2nd in Rendlesham, but season ended before Festival)

2016 THISTLECRACK 7yo (prior season missed Festival won 3M Novice Grade 1 Aintree, and 2nd in Punchestown 3M Grade 1)
- Alpha Des Obeaux (IRE) 6yo (prior season 2nd in Punchestown Grade 1 2M4F Novice)
- Bobs Worth 11yo (prior years chasing full-time (PU in Gold Cup), started at 146 hurdle rating in this years Stayers)

2017 NICHOLS CANYON (IRE) 7yo (prior season 3rd in Champion Hurdle) W Mullins
- Lil Rockerfeller 6yo (prior year 7th in Champion Hurdle)
- Unowhatimeanharry 9yo (prior year 1st in Bartlett)

2018 PENHILL (IRE) 7yo (prior year won Bartlett) W Mullins
- Supasundae (IRE) 8yo - (prior year won Coral Cup)
- Wholestone 7yo (prior year 3rd in Bartlett)


2019 PAISLEY PARK 7yo (prior year 13th in Bartlett, staying novice hurdler)
- Sam Spinner 7yo (prior year 5th in Stayers)
- Faugheen (IRE) 11yo (prior year 6th in Champion Hurdle) W Mullins


2020 LISNAGAR OSCAR 7yo (prior year 5th Bartlett)
- Ronald Pump (IRE) 7yo (prior year 3M Irish handicap hurdles)
- Bacardys (IRE) 9yo (prior year 6th Stayers, 2nd Punchestown 3M Grade 1) W Mullins

In these 8 seasons since the 3 Superstar Multi- Winners won 9 out of 11 runnings, we have the following stats.

Winners
6yo - FIVE
7yo - TWO
8yo - NONE
9yo - ONE


Placed 2nd or 3rd
6yo - FIVE
7yo - FOUR
8yo - TWO
9yo - THREE
10yrs+ - TWO


Total Winners and Placed
6yo - SEVEN
7yo - NINE
8yo - TWO
9yo - FOUR
10yrs+ - TWO

* 16 of the top 3 places (out of 24) were 6yo and 7yo and seven out of eight races were won by 6yo and 7yo.

* No horse since Smad Place in 2013 has been placed again since.
* The last 7 runnings 21 different horses finished 1,2,3.

Bartlett
In the last four years 11 of the 12 placed horses ran in the prior years Festival ,with 10 finishing 7th or better.
The Bartlett has the best race record, with the last three winners, and a 3rd in 2017.

Willie Mullins
Willie Mullins has four different horses placed, in the last four years - plus Annie Power in 2014 makes five different horses placed in 7 years, including two winners.
Mourad was 3rd for Willie aged 6 in the last of Big Bucks 4 wins in 2011, so thats 6 places for WPM in the last decade (plus 2 fourths Bapaume, and Thousand Stars for those betting later each-way for 4 places).
He has stepped up on his number of runners he has in the race in recent years, with the runners he has had in each of the last 12 years starting in 2009 is 1, 1, 2, 4, 2, 1, 2, 0 (13 in 8 years), 3, 4, 4, 2 (13 in the last 4 years).

His placed horses in the last 10 years were Mourad 6yo, Annie Power 6yo, Nichols Canyon 7yo, Penhill 7yo, Faugheen 11yo, and Bacardys 9yo.
So his horses can place, at any age, in recent years, but mostly 6yo and 7yo.


SUMMARY
So I will be mostly looking at:-

* 6yo & 7yo horses in the Stayers Hurdle this season, as potential winners (Any older I would look at bigger prices for place potential, but still with a hope of winning)
* Nothing that has been placed in prior years to return next year to place again.
* Nothing to come back and become a multi-winner.
* Looking at Willie Mullins horses with the potential to come to the Stayers Hurdle (6yo and 7yo have won, 6yo, 7yo, 9yo, 11yo have placed)
* Horses that have prior Festival records, with some emphasis on the Bartlett horses staying over hurdles, or who revert back to hurdles.


The betting market at the moment contains too many horses to guess on whether they go over fences or not.

But a current long-list for me would include (Ages are at time of 2021 Festival):-

CATEGORY A
THYME HILL 7yo 16/1 - Rock solid chance on stats if he stayed over hurdles

CATEGORY A
MULLINS
A bit wider scope adopted here, as there arent many at anything other than big prices.
JANIDIL 7yo 66/1 - Rock solid chance on stats if he stayed over hurdles
LORD ROYAL 6yo 66/1 - Only had two or three hurdle races, assume he wasnt hardened enough at 5, for the Bartlett this year.
FRANCIN 8yo 50/1 - Missed the Festival and built up an improving profile for this lightly raced novice.

I have left out any novices where I have read that they intend to go over fences this coming season.

Added a day later
But if they did comeback to hurdles then for the MULLINS section should include
MONKFISH 7yo 33/1
FIVE O'CLOCK 6yo no price


CATEGORY B - LONG SHOTS Gordon/Giggy who dont target the race
FURY ROAD 7yo 33/1 - Rock solid chance on stats if he stayed over hurdles
COLUMN OF FIRE 7yo 33/1 - Interesting profile if he stayed over hurdles, I am assuming he would have been placed (at least) at prior year Festival.

I have put these two in both trained by Gordon for Giggy. They fit the profile for age, prior good Festival runs etc, but Gordon has only had 2 runners in the race in a decade, both unplaced (Apples Jade and Tiger Roll).
So these two are more likely to not run here on past trainer planning, unless he has so many novice chasing that he lets a live one come here.