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Cracking display from Honeysuckle yesterday and she deserves to be favourite for this. The way this will be run just plays into her hands. Rachael will slowly wind it up coming down the hill and really pour it on after jumping 3 out. Epatante can’t afford to sit more than 5 lengths off her at any stage and will need to be on her tail coming to 2 out. You give Honey too much rope and she’s gone. Sharjah needs to be ridden cold to be seen at his best and he’s going to be too far off them to make a serious challenge. This will come down to a straight out shoot out between the two mares imo and it’s just whether Epatante has the boot to get past up the hill. I hope Epatante can pass her but I’m not confident.
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Yep.Originally posted by Priceiskey View Post
They've got Aspire Tower too to try and set the early pace.
She can settle in behind him and maybe another (silver streak) and wait to make her move.
I can see Epatante tracking her.
She had to sit three wide yesterday before deciding they weren't going quick enough up front then wound the pace up to perfection, she learned from last year where I think she went a little soon, made a mistake at the last and nearly got done. Patrick was very slow to react yesterday, as he should have known that she was going to run the finish out of him if she went to the front early enough.
Big test for the 2 jockeys on the mares in the Champion hurdle I reckon.
Might be a case of who can keep the coolest head and time the run right.Comment
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Aspire Tower is definitely the Ew play in this race now or, in my case, in the Ew without market. I can't see him being outside the first 4.Comment
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If the stable fancy Honeysuckle, he may get swallowed up having gone too fast.Originally posted by Lobos View PostComment
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The really fast pace could suit Sharjah, he will love coming from the back with the rest coming back to him. Wouldnt write him off afyer yesterday, was given plenty to do tooOriginally posted by Quevega View PostComment
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You can’t come from too far back in a champion. It’s ok in these small fields but Honey won’t be stopping and you just can’t make the ground up on a class mare like her sitting way off.Originally posted by Dessie the great View Post
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Honeysuckle was very, very good yesterday, but things could literally not have been more perfect. She had her ground and my god did the jocks in behind make it easy for her. As impressed as I was, I cannot envisage things falling so perfectly again for her in the Champion Hurdle and for that reason alone, I think the current prices are very skinny. On better ground, with more horses in the race and presumably, some better rides on those in behind, she still has it all to do in my opinion.Comment
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Think the ones in behind have a bit more to do.Originally posted by Appreciate It View Post
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Sharjah came from plenty far back last tear to grab 2nd off a moderate pace and on ground that wouldnt have shown him at his best. A stronger pace on better ground would see him close the gap considerably on Honey in my viewOriginally posted by Priceiskey View PostComment
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Just noticed that the ICH this year was ran on the outside track versus last year when it was ran inner. Happy to be corrected, maybe the fences were shifted out this weekend, if they did they shifted them out by quite a bit!!
Need to dig into this further...Comment
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Did Concertista's chances of coming here improve over the weekend? I think they have.
The 'easiest' race for BDD with no Honey is now the mares hurdle right? Unfinished business from last year etc. Would Willie make BDD's job in that race harder than it needs to be by adding Concertista? I think that would be unlikely.
What does Willie have for this now? None of his look like coming close to beating Honeysuckle - especially if Sharjah is his closest contender. Let's not forget, Concertista was fav for the Mares ahead of Honey before the weekend and put in a breathtaking performance over 2m last year.
We know Simon and Isaac favour CH runners, we know on ratings with the mares allowance concertista is at least a 160 mare, we know WPM runners are thin on the ground. Why not take her chance?
0.5pts Concertista @ 55's.
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It goes back to Elliott and the whole Triumph to Supreme switch scenario for me. Why switch up the favourite for the race to a more difficult option, especially when the alternative is going to be a LOT harder.Originally posted by charlie View Post
She has 6lbs to make up on BDD, who won't be seen until the festival, so god knows what shape she is in, but she has 8lbs to make up with both Honeysuckle & Epatante, and that's not even taking into account any of the geldings.
WPM is not adverse to running more than one mare in the mares hurdle, he's done it for years now.
He also has a lot of ammunition for the Champion Hurdle already, so makes absolutely no sense to me.Comment
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Don't mind 'unlikely, but how can it make no sense? I've spelt out why it makes senseOriginally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post
Ammunition? Haha. Willie's ammunition for the Champion Hurdle currently looks like its being loaded into a spud gun
Assuming BDD is fit and well I am convinced WPM and his wife will go for whatever option is easiest (I hate the term 'easiest', but you know what I mean). I firmly believe as a 10yo with not many big days left, that they will move pieces around BDD (that's just my opinion, appreciate others with an opposing view
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Willie ultimately holds the keys as to how hard a time BDD is going to have. The Mares Chase will almost certainly include Elimay, with PTKO also looking likely. They will both be very hard to beat, but not as hard as Concertista in the mares IMO. 6lbs is not a lot to an improving race fit mare, especially one doing her winning on the snaff, and with arguably the most impressive cheltenham performance last year. Take Concertista out the mares and it looks like a penalty kick, and she has to go somewhere....
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