Champion Hurdle 2021

[opatcho]

Sharjah at 30's on the exchange is looking crazy big!!!
Inconsistent yes, but he's capable of a 160+ run
I need to work this horse out, always felt it was ground but then thought it was the pace (likes to come off a steady pace)

Looks a great each way play. Hmmmmm off to re-watch some of his previous races - determined to work out this enigma

[Outlaw]

Sharjah at 30's on the exchange is looking crazy big!!!
Inconsistent yes, but he's capable of a 160+ run
I need to work this horse out, always felt it was ground but then thought it was the pace (likes to come off a steady pace)

Looks a great each way play. Hmmmmm off to re-watch some of his previous races - determined to work out this enigma

17 hurdle starts arguably not getting any better hasn't won this side of Xmas yet(gets pigeon holed as an early season horse) even on better ground will he turn the tables with Epatnate? be plenty ahead of him on the day including possibly stable 3rd string(Saint roi/Salider will be arguably more popular if getting there) to warrant him still being a decent price on the day and you will know the conditions etc. I don't think he's one you need to be rushing to get onside early personally.

[Quevega]

17 hurdle starts arguably not getting any better hasn't won this side of Xmas yet(gets pigeon holed as an early season horse) even on better ground will he turn the tables with Epatnate? be plenty ahead of him on the day including possibly stable 3rd string(Saint roi/Salider will be arguably more popular if getting there) to warrant him still being a decent price on the day and you will know the conditions etc. I don't think he's one you need to be rushing to get onside early personally.

He'll probably win the Matheson over christmas again though, and beat one of the younger ones in the process.
Think I'll do the special on him again, but doubt it'll be 66-1 this year.

[Istabraq]

Sharjah at 30's on the exchange is looking crazy big!!!
Inconsistent yes, but he's capable of a 160+ run

I think Shajah is an unfashionable horse, as you suggest the inconsistency is probably what puts people off and it means he’ll never be a price his abilities should command.
I’d like to have him 3/4 places on the day...

[Outlaw]

He'll probably win the Matheson over christmas again though, and beat one of the younger ones in the process.
Think I'll do the special on him again, but doubt it'll be 66-1 this year.

Would you back him today at 30s thou?

[Quevega]

Would you back him today at 30s thou?

Nope.
Only in a special at 40+

[Outlaw]

Nope.
Only in a special at 40+

I reckon if you are sweet on him for another Matheson you will get a good price on the day again and he won't go shorter than 10s for a CH given he's already had two cracks (albeit first one who knows what would of happened). You'll get that price easily playing him up from that race no problems imo.

[Quevega]

I reckon if you are sweet on him for another Matheson you will get a good price on the day again and he won't go shorter than 10s for a CH given he's already had two cracks (albeit first one who knows what would of happened). You'll get that price easily playing him up from that race no problems imo.

Yep - I think they'll get his price wrong at christmas especially if the two upstarts turn up.

[opatcho]

Nope.
Only in a special at 40+

Problem is, he's so inconsistent so picking up a 'Win today + CH' bet could points wasted
I am more than likely going to add him to the book, but the question is when and by what means

[Kevloaf]

Abawoofwoof unchanged rating of 160.
Saint Roi +1 to 157
Jason The Militant +6 to 153

Grade 1 winner Abawoofwoof?


Who trains him?




What an odd time to knock the horse - I don't think you'd have posted that if he wasn't trained by Elliott. *tin hat on*

[jono]

Just being watching the Morgiana back again. I'll admit I was pretty downbeat having just watched it live.
It still leaves me with more questions than answers. I'll echo most of the thoughts already said.
I wanted the 2 at the head of the market to pull clear, they didn't and it ended up a messy race.

I'd say both improved on their seasonal debuts. Yet neither enhanced their claims. And if I hadn't have backed either. I wouldn't been in a hurry to get them onside. I'd definitely be wanting to see them next time out.

But I wouldn't be giving up hope either.
On better ground, (I wouldn't say both need good ground but I think the whole weekend showed us that was fairly tough going)
At a much faster gallop
With more experience

I very much expect them to improve still.

So far it's hard to see that being enough to topple Epatante but it's foolish to judge their merits at this point and right their chances off.
A quick look back over the last 2 seasons at this stage of the season / first run if they had yet to run shows us:

2020

Epatante

Yet to run but came into the season off the back of a poor run in the mares noice the previous season. Won the Gerry Feilden off 137 well, but talk post race had her seemingly giving the Christmas Hurdle a go more so because of the 2m4 mares trip not suiting.

Sharjah

Second favourite in the Morgiana behind Klassical Dream on his seasonal debut. Well betean 8.5L

Darver Star

Had been on the go in the summer with 4 runs under his belt with a rating of 145. The latest beating Fast Buck 1.5L receiving 3lbs.

2019

Espoir D'Allen

Won a 4yo hurdle impressively receiving a rating of 147. Arguable whether he would have won if Saldier (who in hindsight is a good horse) had of stayed up

Melon

Yet to run but would finish 4/6 in the Christmas Ryanair hurdle. Beaten by Tombstone.

Silver Streak

Won the Welsh Champion Hurdle off a featherweight (139) and then came 2nd in the Greatwood. A new rating of 150 showed he was improving but his trainer summed up the feeling at the time with "“I suppose the handicapper will dictate. The reality is we could be stuck between the devil and the deep blue sea,”

Not exactly a showcase of horses coming out and looking a Champion hurdler in waiting by November no?

Last season Saint Roi lost a maiden hurdle by 23L and looked anything but a festival horse for any race. Abacadabras beat a 128 hurdler by 5.5L making plenty of mistakes.
To see him get beaten by a head in a Supreme was also a stretch at that moment of time.

Both will go into Christmas with 2 runs under their belt. A win and a second. I don't think it's the worst springboard into the next few months.
Their best races of their career to date have been at the festival in the Spring at a true pace. The champion hurdle trials are probably the most unlike trial compared to the main event as any. The fact the likes of Melon and My Tent Or Yours coming back repeatedly putting aside their seasonal form shows this.

Arctic Fire would be another horse who got beaten by Little King Robin (who?!) at Down Royal and then lost to Irving in the Fighting Fifth.
But then stepped it up at Leopardstown over Christmas markedly and finished a couple lengths 2nd to Faugheen in March.
When backing Saint Roi for this in the summer I used the example of Arctic Fire in Mullins taking a County hurdle runner and making them CH the following season. (147 > 169). Has Saint Roi had a better start to the season in comparison? An easy win in a grade 3 then a neck 2nd in his first grade 1 when excuses could be made?

I also have little interest in backing Honeysuckle for the CH. I'm still confident they'll end up in the Mares race. I don't see any way of utilising cashout with her.
Paddy Power will be NRNB by the time of the Irish CH and will have removed cashout. Bet365 will no way let you have big prices and returns on offer in either the Mares or CH for her, as shown with Apples Jade and Honeysuckle last year (40/1 CH bets). I've backed Honeysuckle fairly heavily this far out for the Mares, I have cashout currently but I fully expect by the turn of the year that to be 'currently unavailable'.

Despite the weekends initial reaction, I think the pair can give a strong race to Honeysuckle and could beat her over 2 miles still. On better ground, at hopefully a stronger pace (not expecting CH pace but with Petit Mouchoir hopefully in there for Aba, an improvement on the Morgiana). Add in Saldier (hopefully), an on form Sharjah.

[Kevloaf]

I know that's what the 'like' button is for, but golly that's a good post Jono.

I think I'll cash out Honeysuckle for the CH, for 100%, after the Hattons Grace, and end up full circle

[Pendil]

JTM improved 2lbs vs Aba on their running @ Down Royal

[Nathaniel99999]

I'm surprised no one has mentioned this horse yet, and that horse is "Burning Victory". The horse beat Aspire Tower, and it was only the 2nd race it was running and the horse still won with little experience. And what was impressive was that it was still strongly running on after the finish. I know the horse won because Goshen fell at the last, but still I thought it was impressive how Burning Victory still came from the back too to win at the festival last year. I've even had a little punt on it E/W at 50/1 on skybet. The only 2 horses I seem to be looking at for the champion hurdle is Saldier and Burning Victory. If Saldier does run and is fit this year it has a chance but so does Burning Victory and it seems to be the forgotten horse and I know Mullins said the horse may run in the Mares hurdle, but that may change I think and its worth a punt at 50/1 at this stage as the form is looking solid from Aspire Tower.

[Lobos]

Lots have been made of horses in recent years coming out of the woodwork to win or run well in the Champion Hurdle. An up and coming Novice or a fast improving handicapper. I'll throw a couple out there for starters...........

Beacon Edge
Main Fact

Been tempted to back both, especially the latter, but haven't......

Discuss..........