Supreme/Ballymore/Albert Bartlett - Novice Hurdles 2021

[ComplyOrDie]

I thought it was fair too. The reason I posted is that I have noticed this year that bookies (at least the ones I use) have been on top of freezing particular horses when they are running, albeit I have noticed this in a particular race target rather than any race market. So my thoughts were that access to the 16/1 might not be possible if he wins well.

As it stands I've had no issues getting on (probably because it is early in the season) though I have no doubt the more and more we start seeing running the markets will likely freeze in running.

[Hardy Eustace]

I thought it was fair too. The reason I posted is that I have noticed this year that bookies (at least the ones I use) have been on top of freezing particular horses when they are running, albeit I have noticed this in a particular race target rather than any race market. So my thoughts were that access to the 16/1 might not be possible if he wins well.

Seems fair - am trying to find this bet, whereabouts is it?

[charlie]

Someone asked earlier about when we are likely to see Willies supreme contenders - he typically starts them in December and its fair to say most supreme winners don't start till Nov/Dec. A horse running now wouldn't put me off if I thought it was the right bet, but I would have reservations in the back of my mind as to how many supreme winners we have historically seen at this time of year.

Shishkin - December
Klassical Dream - December
Summerville Boy - October
Labaik - February
Altior - October
Douvan - November
Vautour - December
Champagne Fever - November
Cinders And Ashes - November
Al Ferof - December

[Halffat1]

Seems fair - am trying to find this bet, whereabouts is it?

It's under Specials, RequestABet, Ante Post Special Doubles.

[Hardy Eustace]

It's under Specials, RequestABet, Ante Post Special Doubles.

Top man. Thanks.

[Saxon Warrior]

Eskylane is 6 rising 7, which is an unusual age for a Supreme winner.

In the last decade, 7 year olds have a 4th place and a couple of 5th places, the race is the preserve of 5 and 6yo winners and placed horses.
There have been 2 7yo winners, in the last 30 years.
One in the noughties (Captain Cee Bee) and one in the 90's (Tourist Attraction)

7yo's have finished 2nd (but not won) 4 times in the Ballymore, in the last decade, so more hope for the mature novice hurdler (like Champ, 2nd in 2019) in the Ballymore.

The Albert Bartlett has had 2 winners that were 7yo's in the last decade and several placed horses, including Latest Exhibition last year.

[Hardy Eustace]

Eskylane is 6 rising 7, which is an unusual age for a Supreme winner.

In the last decade, 7 year olds have a 4th place and a couple of 5th places, the race is the preserve of 5 and 6yo winners and placed horses.
There have been 2 7yo winners, in the last 30 years.
One in the noughties (Captain Cee Bee) and one in the 90's (Tourist Attraction)

7yo's have finished 2nd (but not won) 4 times in the Ballymore, in the last decade, so more hope for the mature novice hurdler (like Champ, 2nd in 2019) in the Ballymore.

The Albert Bartlett has had 2 winners that were 7yo's in the last decade and several placed horses, including Latest Exhibition last year.

Yes, i would have thought myself the AB was the race for him but everything coming from Gordo's mouth suggests 2 or 2.5 miles. According to Gordon. he has plenty of pace. Not that you can always trust that! To me, he didnt look like a 'pacey' bumper horse but time will tell.

[ComplyOrDie]

Yes, i would have thought myself the AB was the race for him but everything coming from Gordo's mouth suggests 2 or 2.5 miles. According to Gordon. he has plenty of pace. Not that you can always trust that! To me, he didnt look like a 'pacey' bumper horse but time will tell.

He finished alongside Queens Brook in the bumper, and although she won over 2m (just) at the weekend she would clearly be better suited going up in trip. Ferny Hollow is the only question mark for me with regards to trip, I think the next 4 in behind are all likely intermediate to staying types, which obviously includes Eskylane.

[SeanRock]

Personally Eskylane’s PTP record would put me off backing him for the Albert Bartlett, maybe that’s in the back of Gordon’s mind.

I’m not too keen on him full stop to be honest.

[nortonscoin200]

It sounds like you might care a bit Q

Good post, and lots of fair counter points. This thread really is excellent for conversations like this, as opposed to clogging up the main thread like last year

The first thing I should acknowledge is I wouldn’t be remotely surprised if Ferny ended up in the Supreme because the figures he’s achieved on the clock and ratings clearly suggest he isn’t short of speed – so I am not saying it won’t happen. We didn’t get to see Ferny's natural speed at the end of his races pre-Cheltenham because he raced way too keenly and cut his own throat. He showed a big engine in lots of those races to finish as close as he did.

Saying ‘stamina won the day’ and not acknowledging the above was an oversight on my part, because it was clearly both that won him the bumper. I take the view that coming from last to first in the manner that he did, at Cheltenham (vs somewhere flat like Wincanton), on soft ground, having been a little keen early, all collectively scream big engine/stamina. Theres the temptation (and I'm guilty of this in my OP) to talk about stamina v speed, as opposed to stamina and speed - he has both but I think his future will lie over further.

You make an excellent point of him needing things to go his own way, and when I look at this point combined with the tactics they employed to win the Bumper, I think more Ballymore than Supreme. The Supreme is typically more tactical and tends to produce more hard-luck stories (for want of a better phrase).

I always think horses need to get the trip really well to win at Cheltenham.

With all the ups and downs and the steep uphill finish it's definitely a track where stamina is a necessity - specially when it comes to the Festival.

But if a horse has the necessary stamina and a turn of foot then you are looking at the real deal.

My reading of the bumper was that FH greatly benefitted from being ridden with more restraint, saw the trip out well and showed a very impressive sprint to the line.

In my book, all of these attributes will make him a formidable force in the Supreme - providing he takes to jumping hurdles.

And it would be folly to say: "Because he stayed on so well in the bumper, let's up the trip to two-and-a-half miles because that could make him even more effective."

The risk in taking this course would be twofold: you could be stretching his stamina to the limit and blunting his finishing speed.

[ComplyOrDie]

Personally Eskylane’s PTP record would put me off backing him for the Albert Bartlett, maybe that’s in the back of Gordon’s mind.

I’m not too keen on him full stop to be honest.

Much too different point in his career to judge him on that, IMHO.

He certainly improved for each run, from two PU's, to 18 1/2 length 5th, to 12 length 3rd to then winning his PTP. It is very hard sometimes to judge a PTP performance (especially those beat) as we have no idea on that horses physical or mental stage of development. No different to a bumper runner first time up (with no previous information about), that can then go on and improve with time.

That all said, I think he'll be seen to best effect over the intermediate trip if I had to call it now. Whether that'll be good enough to win anything at the festival, I honestly don't know.

[SeanRock]

Much too different point in his career to judge him on that, IMHO.

He certainly improved for each run, from two PU's, to 18 1/2 length 5th, to 12 length 3rd to then winning his PTP. It is very hard sometimes to judge a PTP performance (especially those beat) as we have no idea on that horses physical or mental stage of development. No different to a bumper runner first time up (with no previous information about), that can then go on and improve with time.

That all said, I think he'll be seen to best effect over the intermediate trip if I had to call it now. Whether that'll be good enough to win anything at the festival, I honestly don't know.

The ATR app doesn’t have a record of his PTP win at Broughshane, I thought his best PTP form was a distant 10 lengths 3rd, that doesn’t read as badly as I initially thought so, I really should start using the Racing Post app, still wouldn’t be sweet on him going forward over a distance, could be wrong!

[Big Bucks]

Third Time Lucki declared over 2m on Friday

[ComplyOrDie]

That is no Supreme winner

On another note that's a nice run by Gabynako, whom finished behind Keskonrisk in his last NHF run (Jackie will be pleased).

[Quevega]

Eskylane certainly doesn't do anything too quickly.