Announcement

Collapse

Fat Jockey Patrons

Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated.
Become a Patron!

You can also make a one-off donation here:
https://pay.anna.money/p/fjforumslimited
See more
See less

Supreme/Ballymore/Albert Bartlett - Novice Hurdles 2021

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Supreme/Ballymore/Albert Bartlett - Novice Hurdles 2021

    Rather than create a thread for each race, let's try lumping our discussion regarding novice hurdlers for next seasons festival in one place.


    When we get to the start of the season, we can create the individual race threads. Mares Novice Hurdle too....




    I'm conscious that last year (and every year) we end up with a couple of threads having conversations duplicated and points lost/repeated about which horses go where... etc
    Last edited by Kevloaf; 23 April 2020, 06:25 PM.

  • #2
    I binned a couple of Supreme bets today , as i was getting a few racked up.
    With all the discussion we've been having about the superstar novices.
    Thought i'd go back to basic's , Mullins, Elliott , Henderson horses .
    For the time being , until we have a chance to assess the newbies.

    Comment


    • #3
      I was really taken with the performance of bob olinger in his ptp and also his bumper. Hasn’t really been off the bridle in either of those races and has the mix of speed and stamina. think this could be special. 33/1 for ballymore with 365

      Comment


      • #4
        I find it hard to consider a Supreme horse at this time of year at the best of times but having not seen dozens of highly rated bumper horses who were due to make debuts plus the possibility of there being increased flat recruits to the novice hurdle division I’m of the view this is one race to swerve at the moment.
        Similar the longer divisions though we did see some (3 at least) Very smart staying bumper horses who could be suited to any step up in trip.

        We live in unique times therefore normal betting considerations should be reviewed.
        Just my take...

        Comment


        • #5
          Given the amount of time people have on their hands it is very unlikely that you will be the sole owner of a 'dark one'.

          I suspect it will be much more about differences in interpretation.

          I will definitely be against the Champion Bumper until the race is shown to be working out. Ferny Hollow looked (very) ugly prior to winning the race. Was it just an ordinary race with a top ride?

          I flagged up both Bob Olinger and Bear Ghylls pretty much straight after they won their bumpers. My chief concern would be their stables. To this point Nicky Martin has turned out a few promising horses but it is big step from essentially producing handicappers to competing in graded races. Matt Griffiths has little or no experience in top level races. Similarly, Rachael Blackmore was well fancied to be leading jockey at the Festival but I thought with just the one winner she came up short of expectation. I don't think Bob Olinger is short of a gear and on that basis is no certainty to go the Ballymore route.

          I have kept myself busy coming up with a few lists, roughly 30 each of bumper horses, pointers and 3 yo's. It adds a bit of interest even if I am not betting on them. Tried to steer clear of the very obvious and look for horses with a bit of scope. I deliberately left out the two big money pointers, Gallyhill and Sir Gerhard because on paper they looked to have gone for more than twice the price you might expect given form/pedigree.

          On the betting front I think at this time it is important not to get suckered into too many ante-post bets purely because there is nothing to bet on.

          Comment


          • #6
            Bob Olinger is of massive interest for me, backed him for both Supreme and Ballymore and will cash one out dependant on entries.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post
              Bob Olinger is of massive interest for me, backed him for both Supreme and Ballymore and will cash one out dependant on entries.
              He’s one of those who could be anything for sure. I’ve currently swerved him in favour for some bumper horses who’ve shown they ca n battle to win and have been off the bridle. I doubt I’ll leave him uncovered though in a couple of bets at least.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by kinloch brae View Post
                Given the amount of time people have on their hands it is very unlikely that you will be the sole owner of a 'dark one'.

                I suspect it will be much more about differences in interpretation.

                I will definitely be against the Champion Bumper until the race is shown to be working out. Ferny Hollow looked (very) ugly prior to winning the race. Was it just an ordinary race with a top ride?

                I flagged up both Bob Olinger and Bear Ghylls pretty much straight after they won their bumpers. My chief concern would be their stables. To this point Nicky Martin has turned out a few promising horses but it is big step from essentially producing handicappers to competing in graded races. Matt Griffiths has little or no experience in top level races. Similarly, Rachael Blackmore was well fancied to be leading jockey at the Festival but I thought with just the one winner she came up short of expectation. I don't think Bob Olinger is short of a gear and on that basis is no certainty to go the Ballymore route.

                I have kept myself busy coming up with a few lists, roughly 30 each of bumper horses, pointers and 3 yo's. It adds a bit of interest even if I am not betting on them. Tried to steer clear of the very obvious and look for horses with a bit of scope. I deliberately left out the two big money pointers, Gallyhill and Sir Gerhard because on paper they looked to have gone for more than twice the price you might expect given form/pedigree.

                On the betting front I think at this time it is important not to get suckered into too many ante-post bets purely because there is nothing to bet on.
                Interesting take on the champion bumper - for me, I think it will throw up plenty of winners and have relevance to next years novice festival races. Apart from the 1-2-3 who all look to have leading chances Feny Hollow (supreme) Appreciate It (ballymore) and Queen's brook (mares novices) Eskylane ran a nice race as did Ocean Wind (who looked very good at Newbury and would have wanted better ground in the Champion Bumper) and the glancing queen who was having its only run of the season after picking up an injury earlier in the season are definitely horses I want to be on the right side of.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Two bets for me.

                  Supreme- FERNY HOLLOW 14/1. This is a serious horse when it all clicks. Bumper rating is top notch. Good high cruising speed, deadly acceleration and stays-well- perfect for a supreme. He’s Ground versatile and trained by the right man. Only concerns are he can be a bit of fruit loop and race keenly, but I’m sure Mullins will have a pace maker for him. Also could meet some trouble with hold up tactics.


                  Ballymore- BOB OLINGER 33/1. Visually looked great in his bumper and P2P. Well breed and with one of the best and most underrated trainer. Problem if this horse is guessing his target.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post
                    Bob Olinger is of massive interest for me, backed him for both Supreme and Ballymore and will cash one out dependant on entries.
                    I'm in on the Bob Olinger Ballymore bet, looks a bit special doesn't he.

                    Can someone please help me: which is the best firm for cash out on the Bob O 33-1 Supreme bet? Lads, Hills, BV, PP, Betfair and Unibet all the same price but I'm struggling to find if they offer cash out.

                    I have only used B365 for cash out in the past but they have Bob at 25-1 for the Supreme.

                    Also, is there a website which allows you to watch Irish p2p race replays for free? Sorry to be a pest.
                    Last edited by nortonscoin200; 24 April 2020, 04:03 PM.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Sporting life good for re-watch. If you have a sky bet account you can use that log in , if not you can create one for free.

                      Betfair is also up there with 365 for cash outs

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by George196 View Post
                        Sporting life good for re-watch. If you have a sky bet account you can use that log in , if not you can create one for free.

                        Betfair is also up there with 365 for cash outs
                        Cheers George196, much appreciated.
                        Last edited by nortonscoin200; 24 April 2020, 04:32 PM.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by nortonscoin200 View Post
                          I'm in on the Bob Olinger Ballymore bet, looks a bit special doesn't he.

                          Can someone please help me: which is the best firm for cash out on the Bob O 33-1 Supreme bet? Lads, Hills, BV, PP, Betfair and Unibet all the same price but I'm struggling to find if they offer cash out.

                          I have only used B365 for cash out in the past but they have Bob at 25-1 for the Supreme.

                          Also, is there a website which allows you to watch Irish p2p race replays for free? Sorry to be a pest.
                          Betfair and PP offer cash out, Ladbrokes does but not for ante post bets looking at some of mine last season.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by George196 View Post
                            Sporting life good for re-watch. If you have a sky bet account you can use that log in , if not you can create one for free.

                            Betfair is also up there with 365 for cash outs
                            Can you watch ptp's on Sporting Life?

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              I think there’s more to come from Israel Champ and Linelee King next season. They both performed poorly in the Champion Bumper but they will both improve with obstacles to encounter. Whilst they may not be top class they will definitely win races. Israel Champ is the best horse Pipe has had for a few years and even though he appears to be regressing as a trainer sometimes a special horse can reignite a stables form and Israel Champ looks a powerhouse of a horse. Maybe not next season but he will win a big race at Cheltenham at some point. Linelee King is capable of better and could be a dark horse for the ever improving Olly Murphy. I’ll be looking to get them both covered TWAR when they are priced up.

                              Comment

                              Working...
                              X