Supreme/Ballymore/Albert Bartlett - Novice Hurdles 2021

[kinloch brae]

Pedigree bluffers is a new one on me; are you referring to posters in here or the more public domain?

If you don't have a certain knowledge, and many don't, then it is very easy to be impressed by not very much. If you don't have that knowledge it is hard to contradict what is being said and people know that.

As for Flemensfirth, yes, he has sired plenty of stayers but that doesn't mean he can't get a quicker one. Many of his offspring go well with a bit of juice which bodes very well for Dusart. Relatively speaking I don't think Henderson has had that many by the sire and it is in general a stable more associated with quicker, good ground horses than stayers. Perhaps if Dusart was elsewhere he might gone down a different path. Darlan has been mentioned. He was by Milan who is also a sire you wouldn't particularly associate with speed, but clearly it can happen.

[kinloch brae]

You're quite entitled to disagree, but the sectionals say otherwise.

When you say which horses have shown better form. So far this season? Over two miles? Novice Hurdlers per se?

I'm not sure the answer matters too much anyway. Only a fraction of the novice hurdlers we'll see this season have come out so far, and several will certainly better the 123 RPR Dusart achieved. Some have already produced better.

There's no context to rate Dusart other than a slow race against one serious rival who probably won't be deemed good enough to run in a Grade 2 Novice at the Festival. That doesn't mean he can't win at the Festival of course, it just means the way the race panned out at Newbury made how good he is as inconclusive as it gets, just as it did what trip he might end up being best over.

Incidentally I agree with the breeding aspect mentioned by Jackie. On breeding it would be very unusual for him to be at his best at 2 miles, even this early in his career. There are always exceptions though and Nicky would no better than any of us.

Having read this I looked at your own ante-post thread.

You have already backed four horses for the Supreme, three of which you have no idea how they will jump hurdles and one which has one hurdle run and hasn't been seen for over 13 months. The horse who beat him has been well beaten in five subsequent runs. They seem somewhere between speculative and dart throws.

Yet you have tried to logically pull apart the idea of backing a horse who we know has comfortably beaten a useful rival (perhaps very useful), can jump pretty well, has a decent pedigree and is open to plenty of improvement?

[Spectre]

I don’t even know where to start with some of those comments KB.

1. I can only see myself and Jackie Moon having referred to Dusart’s breeding, so I presume you’re regarding one or both of us as pedigree bluffers?

2. As a pedigree expert rather than a bluffer, I’m sure you’ll easily name how many Flemensfirths have won over two miles at the Festival? Perhaps you’d like to also tell us how many have started at single figure odds over two miles.

3. The way the race was run is irrefutable. It’s a fact, and whether you like sectionals or not, Dusart won a slow race in a sprint finish. In other words he was a good winner of an inconclusive race with regards his Cheltenham prospects, or even the distance that’ll prove to be his optimum. Backing him at 50/1 for the Supreme with cashout is fair enough though if it’s purely speculative. I hope it comes off for everyone who backed him at the price. It’s those kind of bets I like myself.

4. However you have presumably considered that Soaring Glory was giving Dusart 6lbs so logically comes out better at the weights? Where do you have Soaring Glory in your Supreme League Table of horses that have run so far?

5. Why do you need me to find the RPR’s of the novices that have been out so far either side of the Irish Sea for you? You seem a bit hung up on it. In answer to your question I have indeed looked, and without trying I fairly quickly found 20 novice hurdlers with a better RPR this season. I stopped at that point and made the assumption there will be several more. I don’t feel particularly inclined to type them all out when you can easily look for yourself. If you do you can check whether I’m a ratings bluffer as well as a pedigree bluffer. If you don’t know how to find them though, let me know and I’ll list the first 20 for you.

6. In addition to all the horses that have already put up better performances, why do you ignore the possibility that of the 80% of Supreme contenders that have yet to see a racecourse so far this season, statistically many of them will also produce a better first time performance than Dusart did at Newbury? You’re pretty firm on him, but you’d understand why I prefer to be less certain in my opinion, whilst respecting the right to have than a ‘punt’ on a 50/1 shot?

I’ll reiterate my view on him, and give just a few reasons why I wouldn’t consider backing him right now:

1. Because of the way the race was run it allowed him to do nothing more than show he has a sharper turn of foot than Soaring Glory.
2. His rating from the race is okay but nothing more than that.
3. His breeding suggests the Supreme will not be his optimum trip. His trainer also knows this so a step up in trip is hardly unlikely.
4. Given his breeding and if Nicky happened to share your opinion it’s entirely possible you won’t know until the decs are out which race goes for (if entered), which means if you’re wrong you won’t get out of the bet.
4. His trainer has spoken in glowing terms about several of his novices, and at least at this point Dusart would not appear to be in the top 4 or 5 in the pecking order. That may change in time as he develops or others don't, but that’s my understanding from all the guff so far from Seven Barrows.
5. That being the case you could make a case for an any race bet as he could likely to end up in a handicap like the Coral Cup, although Nicky prefers 2nd season hurdlers for that.
6. There is also the possibility that he’s not good enough to make the Cheltenham Team, and they’ll have plans elsewhere. Or even they see him as an embryonic chaser and they’ll mind him.

It doesn’t make me right. It’s just my opinion, and I may change my mind if he comes out and wins good trial over two miles in a true run race. And if he does and it’s convincing enough, I’ll perhaps have a decent bet on at a shorter price. I’ll also applaud those who are already on, because of all my analysis, what I saw, the way the race was run, his breeding, what else Nicky is likely to have for the race, etc, I was wrong. And that’s the thing about racing. We’re usually wrong more often than we’re right and 50/1 winners go a long way towards redressing the balance.

Anyhow, I’ll say this one final time. I have no idea why you seem to take the tone you do when someone disagrees with you. All people are doing is expressing their own opinion and trying to add to the debate. For some reason you come across as trying to push your own opinion as superior, or that your interpretation is better. But it’s no different than mine or anyone else’s. It’s just an opinion. It’s as though you’re deliberately being antagonistic to provoke a reaction or argument. Either that or you just believe you’re better than everyone else. I genuinely have no idea which it is. Or maybe it’s just your writing style and it’s not intended at all, and it’s just how everyone interprets what you’re writing. Whichever it is though it comes across as personal. To emphasise that point, on what basis do you assume that Jackie and I know nothing about pedigrees, that we’re bluffers and that your knowledge is much superior? Why the comment at all? It can’t relate to anyone or anything else because were the only ones who have referenced it. And why the sarcasm when you say ‘I won’t press you on the names because you had the opportunity to mention them if you wanted to but declined.’ You surely have looked yourself and realise you’re wide if the mark with this?

I don’t want to fall out with you. You know you’re stuff and add some really worthwhile comment and opinion on here. Much of which I read and take note of. But because of your approach to people’s opinions and your reaction to anyone having an opposing view, I’m finding myself increasingly skipping past your posts and not bothering to read what you write, because if I want to comment I know where it’ll likely to end up. I’m not alone with this as has been evidenced previously. And that’s a shame because you’d add so much more to the debate if the walls came down, you had a more open mind, and you just loosened up.

[Quevega]

Simply magnificent.
Reminds me of when George Galloway spoke to the Senate.

We definitely need a Mic Drop emoji.

[Kevloaf]

APPRECIATE IT
I thought he'd won the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham turning for home last year.
He's a horse that I think might be in the staying novice hurdle division. I don't minding starting off over two miles but looking at him gallop I don't mind going out to two and a half and he's possibly a Ballymore type. We'll let him tell us as the season progresses.


-----------------------------------

As a Ballymore backer, that's a nice read.

[Kevloaf]

FERNY HOLLOW
It's nice to have Ferny Hollow in the yard and he should be a lot easier to ride over hurdles as he likes to get on with the job. The type of speed that he shows, I think maybe Paul (Townend) will enjoy riding him over the minimum trip.

[Star Of A Gunner]

Where are these quotes coming from please Kev?

[JackieMoon33]

If you don't have a certain knowledge, and many don't, then it is very easy to be impressed by not very much. If you don't have that knowledge it is hard to contradict what is being said and people know that.

As for Flemensfirth, yes, he has sired plenty of stayers but that doesn't mean he can't get a quicker one. Many of his offspring go well with a bit of juice which bodes very well for Dusart. Relatively speaking I don't think Henderson has had that many by the sire and it is in general a stable more associated with quicker, good ground horses than stayers. Perhaps if Dusart was elsewhere he might gone down a different path. Darlan has been mentioned. He was by Milan who is also a sire you wouldn't particularly associate with speed, but clearly it can happen.

Seeing as you’re the pedigree expert, care to find me a Flemensfirth progeny that has won the Supreme? I won’t have time to go back years but I can’t remember any off the top of my head. I’m prepared to be corrected though as I’m only a bluffer.

I’m not entirely sure about your point that Henderson has never trained many by Flemensfirth, nor am I even convinced that’s even correct. Again though, I’ll bow to your superior knowledge in the absence of any stats from yourself. Your rather irrelevant point about the Henderson stable being associated with a certain type of horse also baffles me some what and I’m not even sure where to start on that one.

Dusart could well turn out to be a Supreme runner and yes, he could even win it; no one has disputed that. All I’ve said is that I’d only back him for the Ballymore based on my opinion. I in no way called you stupid for thinking he could win the Supreme but I will call you an arrogant hand pump.

[Kevloaf]

Where are these quotes coming from please Kev?

https://www.fatjockey.com/forum/fat-jockey-horse-racing-forum/cheltenham-festival-2021/3419-stable-tours

[Star Of A Gunner]

Thanks Kev.

[Kevloaf]

Simply magnificent.
Reminds me of when George Galloway spoke to the Senate.

We definitely need a Mic Drop emoji.

works?



I only just caught up with that Dusart race too. Commentator gets a bit over board at the end doesn't he? Says it's a perfect start and goes on to say it's where Hendo likes to introduce his really good uns?

Just fact checking it, he's had Mister Fisher and Claimintakiforgan run in it. I saw Lostintranslation was also beaten in the race for Tizzy.

Credible, but hasn't got me rushing to back the horse.

The start was absolutely pathetic and as a rule I just put a line through and race where they walk over the first - it's too hard to get a handle on or use? Even the 'sprint finish' is distorted as it's not proven they'd have that in a properly run race (not even a strong pace).... it just showed they were best, on that day... which I won't hang my hat on.

[Craigy14]

Nico was getting to work on Dusart between 3 and 2 out, not right into him but was niggling along. Surely in a slowly run race a horse with speed shouldn’t need that? He picks up well for him after the last and goes clear. But imo if he’s quick enough how is he struggling in a slow race?!

If that makes sense. Maybe because it is his first ever run in any sphere? Maybe Nico just needed to keep his mind on the job? A lot of ifs and maybes imo to get too excited.

I’m more asking as it seems a bit confusing.

A horse with speed struggling to keep up in a race with no pace? Am I missing something.

You would be happy enough with a 50/1 ticket with cashout but can see why folk would say he maybe needs further after that, as to my eye he looked like it.

[Lobos]

Gordon on Eskylane

He was a high class bumper horse last season and I’m hoping he will make up into a quality novice hurdler this winter. He will probably come into his own over two and a half miles but two miles at a galloping track like Navan should be right up his street. I know he only just got home in his maiden hurdle at Punchestown last month but he would have needed that run and should be better and fitter here. He is coming along nicely at home and hopefully he will take beating.

[charlie]

Gordon on Eskylane

He was a high class bumper horse last season and I’m hoping he will make up into a quality novice hurdler this winter. He will probably come into his own over two and a half miles but two miles at a galloping track like Navan should be right up his street. I know he only just got home in his maiden hurdle at Punchestown last month but he would have needed that run and should be better and fitter here. He is coming along nicely at home and hopefully he will take beating.

Will end up Ballymore/Bartlett bound IMO. Ran well LTO don't get me wrong, but was close to being collared and having watched that race back he looks to me like a horse that will want further.

[FinalFurlong91]

Will end up Ballymore/Bartlett bound IMO. Ran well LTO don't get me wrong, but was close to being collared and having watched that race back he looks to me like a horse that will want further.

Dont like him for any race after seeing that head carriage