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So you think its a certainty he goes for the Supreme then kb?
I think its only natural people will take about both novice races after such a taking performance on debut. Especially one with his breeding.
Of course not, but there is no reason to entertain that option at the moment.
Although Simonsig won the Ballymore there was quite a push for him to go for the Supreme even though he had won over the longer trip at Sandown. For me he was always speed over stamina.
I'm struggling to get as excited as some of you guys with Dusart. As a trial the race was a bit of a non-entity. Sure they came away from the field but essentially Dusart beat Soaring Glory in a sprint. It was no kind of test at all, and no indicator of what trip either is likely to get. It's also possible that a fast run race could have produced a different result.
The novice hurdles look like a deep division, and splitting horses into the Supreme, Ballymore, and Albert Bartlett is tough at the the best of times, all the way to final decs normally. For those that are enthusiastic about him I'd think he's an any race option, but nominating a target for him feels way too early. All yesterday proved is he has a better turn of foot than another horse that may or may not even be good enough to line up at the Festival. For now at best I'd have him on a watchlist to see how he performs next time out.
I disagree entirely with your interpretation the race but what horses do you think have shown better racecourse form than Dusart?
Of course not, but there is no reason to entertain that option at the moment.
Although Simonsig won the Ballymore there was quite a push for him to go for the Supreme even though he had won over the longer trip at Sandown. For me he was always speed over stamina.
Im not sure I understand your point then. He's no certainty to run in the Supreme, but any other options shouldnt be considered or discussed? Considering the horse has never seen any type of racecourse in his life, I think it was a taking debut. Nico isnt prone to hyperbole and said he's the nicest youngster he has sat on for some time.
It has always been the case that targets will be discussed for novices like this, especially one by Flemensfirth who so consistently produces stayers. Just today in the Mares Bumper the Flemensfirth horse looked beaten until her stamina kicked in. Plenty of Ballymore horses have started their hurdles careers over 2m. He may well go to the Supreme but its a valid debate to my eyes. I have absolutely no doubt the horse would stay the Ballymore trip, in which case its a good option for him.
I'd also add, the reason Simonsig went for the longer race was that Barry felt his hurdling wasnt quite slick enough for the Supreme and would be better suited to the 2m5f race. Dusart didn't strike me as a particularly slick hurdler yesterday, although it is of course very early days.
I disagree entirely with your interpretation the race but what horses do you think have shown better racecourse form than Dusart?
You're quite entitled to disagree, but the sectionals say otherwise.
When you say which horses have shown better form. So far this season? Over two miles? Novice Hurdlers per se?
I'm not sure the answer matters too much anyway. Only a fraction of the novice hurdlers we'll see this season have come out so far, and several will certainly better the 123 RPR Dusart achieved. Some have already produced better.
There's no context to rate Dusart other than a slow race against one serious rival who probably won't be deemed good enough to run in a Grade 2 Novice at the Festival. That doesn't mean he can't win at the Festival of course, it just means the way the race panned out at Newbury made how good he is as inconclusive as it gets, just as it did what trip he might end up being best over.
Incidentally I agree with the breeding aspect mentioned by Jackie. On breeding it would be very unusual for him to be at his best at 2 miles, even this early in his career. There are always exceptions though and Nicky would no better than any of us.
Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.
Im not sure I understand your point then. He's no certainty to run in the Supreme, but any other options shouldnt be considered or discussed? Considering the horse has never seen any type of racecourse in his life, I think it was a taking debut. Nico isnt prone to hyperbole and said he's the nicest youngster he has sat on for some time.
It has always been the case that targets will be discussed for novices like this, especially one by Flemensfirth who so consistently produces stayers. Just today in the Mares Bumper the Flemensfirth horse looked beaten until her stamina kicked in. Plenty of Ballymore horses have started their hurdles careers over 2m. He may well go to the Supreme but its a valid debate to my eyes. I have absolutely no doubt the horse would stay the Ballymore trip, in which case its a good option for him.
I didn't think I could make it much clearer. No horse is a certainty to run in any race, but on the basis of that run yesterday there is absolutely no reason to entertain the idea of him stepping up in trip. Pedigree stuff is fine when there is nothing else to go on but the racecourse is by far the best guide.
Last edited by kinloch brae; 6 November 2020, 04:45 PM.
I'd also add, the reason Simonsig went for the longer race was that Barry felt his hurdling wasnt quite slick enough for the Supreme and would be better suited to the 2m5f race. Dusart didn't strike me as a particularly slick hurdler yesterday, although it is of course very early days.
and Nicky thought he has Supreme covered with Darlan.
You're quite entitled to disagree, but the sectionals say otherwise.
When you say which horses have shown better form. So far this season? Over two miles? Novice Hurdlers per se?
I'm not sure the answer matters too much anyway. Only a fraction of the novice hurdlers we'll see this season have come out so far, and several will certainly better the 123 RPR Dusart achieved. Some have already produced better.
There's no context to rate Dusart other than a slow race against one serious rival who probably won't be deemed good enough to run in a Grade 2 Novice at the Festival. That doesn't mean he can't win at the Festival of course, it just means the way the race panned out at Newbury made how good he is as inconclusive as it gets, just as it did what trip he might end up being best over.
Incidentally I agree with the breeding aspect mentioned by Jackie. On breeding it would be very unusual for him to be at his best at 2 miles, even this early in his career. There are always exceptions though and Nicky would no better than any of us.
All bases covered.
I won't press you on names because you had the opportunity to mention them if you wanted to and declined. I assume you haven't had a bet in the race.
As for taking sectionals as gospel thankfully there are still a few old dinosaurs who might disagree with that method of analysis.
I didn't think I could make it much clearer. No horse is a certainty to run in any race, but on the basis of that run yesterday there is absolutely no reason to entertain the idea of him stepping up in trip. Pedigree stuff is fine when there is nothing else to go on but the racecourse is by far the best guide.
On the basis of his sole ever run, there is no reason to even talk about him running over another trip ever?!
Were you saying the same after Envoi Allen won on his 2m hurdles debut?
'Pedigree stuff' makes it sound unimportant. I think its hugely informative personally.
Last edited by Can't Catch Me; 6 November 2020, 05:06 PM.
On the basis of his sole ever run, there is no reason to even talk about him running over another trip ever?!
Were you saying the same after Envoi Allen won on his 2m hurdles debut?
'Pedigree stuff' makes it sound unimportant. I think its hugely informative personally.
Clearly I am talking at this moment. He will run again and I might have to reassess my original opinion. That is what anyone should do.
Pedigree analysis is very important. Plenty of my best results are in bumpers so I use it a lot. That said racecourse evidence is more important. That was the point I was trying to make. Unfortunately, there are pedigree bluffers out there who will throw it in to try and give the impression they know a little more than they actually do.
As for Envoi Allen I said all along he should have gone for the Supreme but the final route had already been decided.
Dusart RPR 123
The same as Soaring Glory, who was conceding him 6lb.
Putting that into perspective
Ballyadam RPR 144
I hadn't seen those ratings.
I would have that performance of Dusart ahead of anything that Ballyadam has achieved. Ballyadam hasn't beaten a horse as good as Soaring Glory, It seems the Racing Post have swallowed the hype as well. Ballyadam's rating is much too high and Dusart's is too low.
Flinteur Sacre got beat by a horse who has been well beaten since and then easily won a 'nothing' Bumper at Kempton. At the moment he remains all pedigree and no substance.
Clearly I am talking at this moment. He will run again and I might have to reassess my original opinion. That is what anyone should do.
Pedigree analysis is very important. Plenty of my best results are in bumpers so I use it a lot. That said racecourse evidence is more important. That was the point I was trying to make. Unfortunately, there are pedigree bluffers out there who will throw it in to try and give the impression they know a little more than they actually do.
As for Envoi Allen I said all along he should have gone for the Supreme but the final route had already been decided.
Pedigree bluffers is a new one on me; are you referring to posters in here or the more public domain?
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