Supreme/Ballymore/Albert Bartlett - Novice Hurdles 2021

[archie]

Horses at the top of the betting for the Ballymore (best RPR/Timeform)

Ferny Hollow 141/123
Appreciate It 138/119
Ballyadam 125/101p
Forged In Fire 129/109
Eskylane 134/114
Farouk D'Alene 126/105p
Bob Olinger 135/107p

and, for comparison
Captain Kangaroo 127/105p
Kilcruit 123/100p

[ComplyOrDie]

Horses at the top of the betting for the Ballymore (best RPR/Timeform)

Ferny Hollow 141/123
Appreciate It 138/119
Ballyadam 125/101p
Forged In Fire 129/109
Eskylane 134/114
Farouk D'Alene 126/105p
Bob Olinger 135/107p

and, for comparison
Captain Kangaroo 127/105p
Kilcruit 123/100p

Thanks archie.

How much emphasis do you put on number of runs had? I see the top two (both form WPM) and Eskylane have at least double (sometimes more) the amount of runs under rules to perform better RPR's and Timeform figures from. Bob Olinger the only one to hit 130's (RPR) for those less experienced. Forged In Fire (another I like as it were to happen) hitting the Timeform high of 109 of the less experienced.

Improvement is expected from, I imagine, all of them, but they must be in different stages of their development just based on actual race runs.

[archie]

Thanks archie.

How much emphasis do you put on number of runs had? I see the top two (both form WPM) and Eskylane have at least double (sometimes more) the amount of runs under rules to perform better RPR's and Timeform figures from. Bob Olinger the only one to hit 130's (RPR) for those less experienced. Forged In Fire (another I like as it were to happen) hitting the Timeform high of 109 of the less experienced.

Improvement is expected from, I imagine, all of them, but they must be in different stages of their development just based on actual race runs.

As you say, horses tend to mature/improve at different times and different rates. The number of runs is relevant more from the experience of going racing and the mental process involved so, in those terms, I'd tend to lump PtP and NHF runs together.

We all quote ratings that support our own subjective views but with so little direct form to go on it's quite difficult to compare individual performances. As I said earlier, the end of season winner's bumpers were a big loss in getting a feel for how the individual strands of form compare.

[ComplyOrDie]

We all quote ratings that support our own subjective views but with so little direct form to go on it's quite difficult to compare individual performances. As I said earlier, the end of season winner's bumpers were a big loss in getting a feel for how the individual strands of form compare.

Agree with this, it is rather difficult right now to have any sort of gauge about where we really do stand with them, though I'm happy to build a picture with the evidence we have, and of course you may well do the opposite and wait, which is absolutely fair enough.

[hardheld]

Ballyadam looks a stayer, Bartlett horse I think

[ComplyOrDie]

Ballyadam looks a stayer, Bartlett horse I think

Plenty of stamina in his pedigree for sure, I certainly haven't discounted him from ending up in the Bartlett

[hardheld]

Certainly on breeding his dams sire Bob back loves the Bartlett.

Think Sir Gerhard will be CP ballymore horse

[JackieMoon33]

Certainly on breeding his dams sire Bob back loves the Bartlett.

Think Sir Gerhard will be CP ballymore horse

If I was really attempting the impossible and trying to predict CP runners next year I'd probably have Sir Gerhard in the Supreme myself as I'm not confident Malone Road will make it back to the track. It will be interesting how they approach things now that they will have multiple horses in the same division. Will they try and split them or run them in the right race regardless? I'm sure the trainers who have more than one horse will try and split them for sure.

Supreme
SIR GERHARD
GLOIRE D’ATHON

Ballymore
BALLYADAM
FERNY HOLLOW

Albert Bartlett
DEPLOY THE GETAWAY

[Kevloaf]

Certainly on breeding his dams sire Bob back loves the Bartlett.

Think Sir Gerhard will be CP ballymore horse

http://www.fatjockey.com/forum/showthread.php?15532-Avatar-Profile-Picture-requests

[archie]

Ballyadam - Martin Pipe?

[ComplyOrDie]

If I was really attempting the impossible and trying to predict CP runners next year I'd probably have Sir Gerhard in the Supreme myself as I'm not confident Malone Road will make it back to the track. It will be interesting how they approach things now that they will have multiple horses in the same division. Will they try and split them or run them in the right race regardless? I'm sure the trainers who have more than one horse will try and split them for sure.

Supreme
SIR GERHARD
GLOIRE D’ATHON

Ballymore
BALLYADAM
FERNY HOLLOW

Albert Bartlett
DEPLOY THE GETAWAY

I think it will be a splitting job by the trainers. Given the early money for Ferny Hollow in the Supreme (usually happens with the Bumper winner tbf) it may suggest that ones path.

Deploy The Getaway could go for either as could Ballyadam and others. Must be a high chance one of the unraced under rules ends up in the bumper. Not site if CP have other options for this?

[Hardy Eustace]

I think it will be a splitting job by the trainers. Given the early money for Ferny Hollow in the Supreme (usually happens with the Bumper winner tbf) it may suggest that ones path.

Deploy The Getaway could go for either as could Ballyadam and others. Must be a high chance one of the unraced under rules ends up in the bumper. Not site if CP have other options for this?

There has been a little bit of money for Sir Gerhard in the champion bumper so maybe they are thinking of going down that route with him at present. All subject to change 10 months out of course!

[JackieMoon33]

I think it will be a splitting job by the trainers. Given the early money for Ferny Hollow in the Supreme (usually happens with the Bumper winner tbf) it may suggest that ones path.

Deploy The Getaway could go for either as could Ballyadam and others. Must be a high chance one of the unraced under rules ends up in the bumper. Not site if CP have other options for this?

They may hold back Sir Gerhard or Deploy The Getaway but for me that would be a waste given their age and the fact they were bought to jump.

[Faugheen_Machine]

There has been a little bit of money for Sir Gerhard in the champion bumper so maybe they are thinking of going down that route with him at present. All subject to change 10 months out of course!

It would seem crazy to me to go for the Champion bumper but then, on paper, it does appear they'll have a strong hand in the novice hurdle division.

If I owned him he'd be going over hurdles as quick as possible to try and recoup the fee but they are a different beast with a huge budget.

[Craigy14]

It would seem crazy to me to go for the Champion bumper but then, on paper, it does appear they'll have a strong hand in the novice hurdle division.

If I owned him he'd be going over hurdles as quick as possible to try and recoup the fee but they are a different beast with a huge budget.

Totally agree with this FM, he has pretty much missed a season already as imo he was likely to race at Punch in a bumper.

See absolutely no point wasting another season on the flat when they are bought for jumping.

He’d be 7 going over obstacles, can’t see it.