2022 Arkle

[Carnage at Taunton]

I couldn't agree more, tbh.

He's one I've made my bed with and now I've got to lay in it. He won't have a penny of my money on him.

I just can't see how one of the Irish contingent isn't better than him. If one of Mullins, Ellliott or de Bromhead haven't got something better than him I'll be absolutely amazed.

Depending on who turns up I may even place lay him nearer the time, that's what I'm thinking about his chances in the race.

To be fair he ain’t done a lot wrong, and visually imo has looked better than Blue Lord who is my best bet in the race and the best of the opposition to him

[ComplyOrDie]

To be fair he ain’t done a lot wrong, and visually imo has looked better than Blue Lord who is my best bet in the race and the best of the opposition to him

You are right, I've just never taken to the horse, which isn't his fault, but I'm happy to take him on.

We don't have a line to the Irish form but I am sure enough that it will be better than the UK form.

[Carnage at Taunton]

You are right, I've just never taken to the horse, which isn't his fault, but I'm happy to take him on.

We don't have a line to the Irish form but I am sure enough that it will be better than the UK form.

I really hope you are right as Blue Lord is one of my biggest winners of the week. But I have been really impressed with Edwardstone
I still ain’t got him on my side, and any advice how to would be greatly appreciated!! Maybe wait to see what’s on offer on the day?
I would like RD on my side as well but I can’t now have both, I do have him in a couple of Multiple bets, but that’s all I can do now.
Got For Pleasure as I like the Plumpton double horses but I can’t see him figuring now.
Also took the nrnb 20 for Coeur Sublime after reading comments on here that made sense.
Realistically though it’s BL and Edwardstone for me.
1st and 2nd fav’s ….. ha ha

[Exar Essay]

You are right, I've just never taken to the horse, which isn't his fault, but I'm happy to take him on.

We don't have a line to the Irish form but I am sure enough that it will be better than the UK form.

My fav tipster can’t “can’t see Edwardstone being beaten” in today’s RP

[Quevega]

The issue I have with Edwardstone is that he was nothing but an above average handicapper as a hurdler. He was a few pounds short of graded level, or even winning a top handicap.
He has also beat nothing but handicappers since going novice chasing.
He's picked up cheap and nasty graded races against handicappers.
The Uk division of novice hurdlers was a good stone below the Irish crop, so this will likely transpose to the novice chase division for this season.
His rating is false and a good 6lbs too high.
His price is too short right now.

On the Plus side.
The Irish challenge has lost it's cream.
So they are left with lower grade animals themselves. Except for one or two 5 year olds that may or may not be potentially graded performers.
He jumps really nicely and is very likeable as he looks genuine and trustworthy, and looks like he'll run his race 99% of the time.

At 7/2 or higher I'd back him in the current market.
But 2/1 and shorter is fucking shite.

[Saxon Warrior]

The issue I have with Edwardstone is that he was nothing but an above average handicapper as a hurdler. He was a few pounds short of graded level, or even winning a top handicap.
He has also beat nothing but handicappers since going novice chasing.
He's picked up cheap and nasty graded races against handicappers.
The Uk division of novice hurdlers was a good stone below the Irish crop, so this will likely transpose to the novice chase division for this season.
His rating is false and a good 6lbs too high.
His price is too short right now.

On the Plus side.
The Irish challenge has lost it's cream.
So they are left with lower grade animals themselves. Except for one or two 5 year olds that may or may not be potentially graded performers.
He jumps really nicely and is very likeable as he looks genuine and trustworthy, and looks like he'll run his race 99% of the time.

At 7/2 or higher I'd back him in the current market.
But 2/1 and shorter is fucking shite.

You've nailed it Quevega

I wouldn't back him at all

[Splinterboy82]

Agree with a lot of the posts about Edwardstone. He’s a horse I’ve always considered decent but never an Arkle fav. This always happens when a potential star is sidelined. For me it comes down to a few simple but well known facts linking into past Arkle winners - when you look at these in the cold light of day I just couldn’t back him myself.

1) Not trained in Ire or by Hendo. The trainer hasn’t trained a Cheltenham festival winner for yonks.
2) Ran 3 times at course over hurdles, 2 in handicaps with form of 655.
3) Failed to complete in his first 2 runs over fences.
4) Jockey would be level lower (nothing personal) than anyone on main opponents

If I told you all that in isolation would you say he’s a bet at anything under 4/1?

I’ve moved in post Ferny & had decent ew bets on 2 with 365 NRNB with BOG on basis of above & that I expect this to be circa 8 runners max on the day:

Haut En Couleurs - 8/1
Coeur Sublime - 20/1

Both have scope to be a lot better than what we’ve seen so far. Both were last seen running in Grade 1 hurdle races. Both have placed G1 form at the festival. Both are trained in Ire & will have top class jocks.

[Benjy23]

I agree that he's a poor favourite and also won't be looking to get him onside here now. Main reason for me would be his age and amount of time spent hurdling to be honest.

Very simple trend but last ten winners were all aged 6 or 7. Can use that to rule out quite a lot of these. Only leaves you Blue Lord below 16/1

Not sure on the above reasoning of being BD earlier this season at no fault of his own and then selecting HeC, who has a 50% fall record over fences. I've gone off HeC a bit now. He'd have to destroy loads of trends in this.

Actually think Blue Lord is still a very good price whenever I look at this race.

[The Giant Bolster]

Agree with a lot of the posts about Edwardstone. He’s a horse I’ve always considered decent but never an Arkle fav. This always happens when a potential star is sidelined. For me it comes down to a few simple but well known facts linking into past Arkle winners - when you look at these in the cold light of day I just couldn’t back him myself.

1) Not trained in Ire or by Hendo. The trainer hasn’t trained a Cheltenham festival winner for yonks.
2) Ran 3 times at course over hurdles, 2 in handicaps with form of 655.
3) Failed to complete in his first 2 runs over fences.
4) Jockey would be level lower (nothing personal) than anyone on main opponents

If I told you all that in isolation would you say he’s a bet at anything under 4/1?

I’ve moved in post Ferny & had decent ew bets on 2 with 365 NRNB with BOG on basis of above & that I expect this to be circa 8 runners max on the day:

Haut En Couleurs - 8/1
Coeur Sublime - 20/1

Both have scope to be a lot better than what we’ve seen so far. Both were last seen running in Grade 1 hurdle races. Both have placed G1 form at the festival. Both are trained in Ire & will have top class jocks.

I am not sure about Edwardstone either. However, with your reasons I'd just maybe be aware of:

1. There's no Henderson horse this year and he's taking on the Mullins 2nd or 3rd string from their start of season plans.

2. That Cheltenham form comes in big field races (5/25, 5/14, 6/15) so is not terrible. I wouldn't discount him on the basis of this.

I keep checking my bias here; I think I don't like him because he's a British non-Henderson horse. It's a poor quality Arkle but as a result I keep looking for lower rated horses who could improve. I definitely need to be more aware that it might just be that Edwardstone is a below average favourite but is in a below average field.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Agree with a lot of the posts about Edwardstone. He’s a horse I’ve always considered decent but never an Arkle fav. This always happens when a potential star is sidelined. For me it comes down to a few simple but well known facts linking into past Arkle winners - when you look at these in the cold light of day I just couldn’t back him myself.

1) Not trained in Ire or by Hendo. The trainer hasn’t trained a Cheltenham festival winner for yonks.
2) Ran 3 times at course over hurdles, 2 in handicaps with form of 655.
3) Failed to complete in his first 2 runs over fences.
4) Jockey would be level lower (nothing personal) than anyone on main opponents

If I told you all that in isolation would you say he’s a bet at anything under 4/1?

I’ve moved in post Ferny & had decent ew bets on 2 with 365 NRNB with BOG on basis of above & that I expect this to be circa 8 runners max on the day:

Haut En Couleurs - 8/1
Coeur Sublime - 20/1

Both have scope to be a lot better than what we’ve seen so far. Both were last seen running in Grade 1 hurdle races. Both have placed G1 form at the festival. Both are trained in Ire & will have top class jocks.

Each to their own.
Those 4 points mean nothing to me when looking at the winner of this race or indeed any race to be honest.
Trainer has proved in the past perfectly capable when having a good enough one .
His chase performances is whats important to me.
Hes proved he can jump well enough.
Backing the horse, not the jockey. Hes won on the horse enough for me to be perfectly happy with him anyway.

[Carnage at Taunton]

The issue I have with Edwardstone is that he was nothing but an above average handicapper as a hurdler. He was a few pounds short of graded level, or even winning a top handicap.
He has also beat nothing but handicappers since going novice chasing.
He's picked up cheap and nasty graded races against handicappers.
The Uk division of novice hurdlers was a good stone below the Irish crop, so this will likely transpose to the novice chase division for this season.
His rating is false and a good 6lbs too high.
His price is too short right now.

On the Plus side.
The Irish challenge has lost it's cream.
So they are left with lower grade animals themselves. Except for one or two 5 year olds that may or may not be potentially graded performers.
He jumps really nicely and is very likeable as he looks genuine and trustworthy, and looks like he'll run his race 99% of the time.

At 7/2 or higher I'd back him in the current market.
But 2/1 and shorter is fucking shite.

So basically Q, every horse has its price.
7/2 you are happy enough to ignore your negatives and go for the positives.
2/1 its the other way round.

I think i will look at a few multiples, and then wait till the day to make a decision whether to back him, or not.

[Quevega]

So basically Q, every horse has its price.
7/2 you are happy enough to ignore your negatives and go for the positives.
2/1 its the other way round.

I think i will look at a few multiples, and then wait till the day to make a decision whether to back him, or not.

IMO, that's what gambling is all about.

[Carnage at Taunton]

IMO, that's what gambling is all about.

Fair enough.

Every horse does indeed have its price , although some i would'nt touch whatever the price.
I was just confirming that was your thinking.

[charlie]

The issue I have with Edwardstone is that he was nothing but an above average handicapper as a hurdler. He was a few pounds short of graded level, or even winning a top handicap.
He has also beat nothing but handicappers since going novice chasing.
He's picked up cheap and nasty graded races against handicappers.
The Uk division of novice hurdlers was a good stone below the Irish crop, so this will likely transpose to the novice chase division for this season.
His rating is false and a good 6lbs too high.
His price is too short right now.

On the Plus side.
The Irish challenge has lost it's cream.
So they are left with lower grade animals themselves. Except for one or two 5 year olds that may or may not be potentially graded performers.
He jumps really nicely and is very likeable as he looks genuine and trustworthy, and looks like he'll run his race 99% of the time.

At 7/2 or higher I'd back him in the current market.
But 2/1 and shorter is fucking shite.

This is on the money. I was trying to be diplomatic. This version is better

[Quevega]

The 2 Mile novice chase division in the UK is very poor.
It looked like being at the start of the season and it's turned out that way, aside from Edwardstone who could have improved sufficiently to be competitive, or even win the race.
It's why I was so annoyed that Monmiral stayed hurdling.
If the three 5 year olds from Ireland run really well in the arkle, then Paul Nichols should write a letter of apology to me and admit he was wrong.
I fully expect this, so someone tell him please.