Champion Hurdle 2020

[Lobos]

I think they were just musing Lobos. Just warble really.

Although if Willie has choice for their first race of season he clearly likes to run most on soft ground .

And it's not a fact, as it didn't happen.
The horse is clearly blessed with very good speed and stamina so looks flexible enough to me.
He beat horses with speed in the Supreme, who couldn't live with the pace in that ground, and had too much stamina for the ones with stamina who chased him home past beaten horses.

Think the speedier types just fell away up the hill because of the soft ground and as you say the staying types fought out the finish. When I say 'fact' I mean it was a fact that Mullins said he was only switched to the Supreme because of the Soft ground. If the ground was Good/Soft that day we wouldn't be having this debate.

[Quevega]

The winning time wouldn't suggest it was slow. KD outstayed Aramon for me.

I see what you're saying, but surely it's evidence of his speed also ?
My memory is that both that race and the juvenile one was pretty steadily run for quick ground although the 4yr old race was slower I know.

[Quevega]

Think the speedier types just fell away up the hill because of the soft ground and as you say the staying types fought out the finish. When I say 'fact' I mean it was a fact that Mullins said he was only switched to the Supreme because of the Soft ground. If the ground was Good/Soft that day we wouldn't be having this debate.

But you appear to be still forming your betting thought process (at least in part) on trainer musings prior to the 2019 festival.
When you now have other more pressing evidence to go on. Like his Punchestown run and the collateral form.
Knowing full well that the ground will be Gd to Sft at worst on day one of the festival

[Lobos]

But you appear to be still forming your betting thought process (at least in part) on trainer musings prior to the 2019 festival.
When you now have other more pressing evidence to go on. Like his Punchestown run and the collateral form.
Knowing full well that the ground will be Gd to Sft at worst on day one of the festival

I'm not a fan of Punchestown. You often get strange results there after a long season. The way this year is going he will probably get the deep ground in the Churdle but I still say, on G/S he'll be vulnerable to quicker types.

[jack1092]

I'm not a fan of Punchestown. You often get strange results there after a long season. The way this year is going he will probably get the deep ground in the Churdle but I still say, on G/S he'll be vulnerable to quicker types.

The issue might be finding these “quicker types”.... not sure there’s millions of them about tbh.

[Kevloaf]

I agree that whilst beating Fakir D'oudariries by 2.75L doesn't prove he's CH class, but his career is no doubt in front of him and he's done all that's been asked of him to date well. He jumps hurdles slickly and I'd like to see more of the same today.

Today will be one of those races where if he bolts up people will say he's beaten relatively little (and rightly so) with a view to the CH and we haven't learnt a whole lot. If he gets beat then he'll be written off for the CH (and rightly so).

Yeah, it's because in my opinion 16/1 ios the price he should be IF he wins easily today.

His price after winning today will be ridiculous - which doesn't mean he can't win or that he can't improve a lot - it just means he's priced as if he's already better than he should be.


I can't prove that's right but that's why I don't want him onside.... 16/1 that you're on might look a fair price later on today, but I don't want to back it now before I see it - and by the time I've seen it he'll be 8/1 when he should be 16/1

[Kevloaf]

For me the CH is there for the taking this year. Literally anything could come out of the woodwork and win it. I might be alone here but I don't like KD at all. If it comes up deep ground on the Tuesday then I'd give him a squeak. On Good/Soft he'll lack the pace for a CH.

Not literally

[Quevega]

It's such a light market though.
It looks like a market where you might need to think right outside of the box (outside of the van that the box is in).
If we get one or two injuries or poor form at the top of the market we could get something pop up.
What price was Buvuer D'air at this stage when he was novice chasing.
Or Annie Power the year she won (i know some backed it )

Off top of my head...
it's hard to think of much, but BDD, Honeysuckle, Laurina and even City Island
might back honeysuckle actually, if she wins on debut.

[Quevega]

I'm not going to bother with Fusil Raffles.
I'm going to go back to 5yr olds have no chance.
pretend the last one never happened

[jack1092]

It's such a light market though.
It looks like a market where you might need to think right outside of the box (outside of the van that the box is in).
If we get one or two injuries or poor form at the top of the market we could get something pop up.
What price was Buvuer D'air at this stage when he was novice chasing.
Or Annie Power the year she won (i know some backed it )

Off top of my head...
it's hard to think of much, but BDD, Honeysuckle, Laurina and even City Island
might back honeysuckle actually, if she wins on debut.

Must be a fair chance she’ll come here and Elfile run in the mares?

[Lobos]

The 4 I've backed so far are Sharjah, Honeysuckle, Saldier and Fusils. No doubt there'll be s couple more !

[taylorch1990]

The 4 I've backed so far are Sharjah, Honeysuckle, Saldier and Fusils. No doubt there'll be s couple more !

In a very similar situation except swap Fusil for Eldorado Allen

[Quevega]

glad i left that, but anyone who did then price ought not to alter really

[Kevloaf]

Well I'd be cashing out if I'd backed Fusil Raffles... hopefully for a small profit?

[Quevega]

After the race comments
Now he's not ready , hasn't filled out and wasn't ready. Nob
Not what daryll said also Nob