Close Bros Handicap Chase

[mayo]

https://files.constantcontact.com/205db977201/91a60a94-4d22-4cbf-8e8b-5c59aa6b9792.pdf

[doctorwu]

https://files.constantcontact.com/20...59aa6b9792.pdf

Much thanks Mayo

[Folski]

2 Key Trials for this race.

2m4f handicap at Kempton on 26th Dec.
2nd - Mr Whitaker - Won at Cheltenham 2018
2nd - Two Taffs - 3rd at Cheltenham 2017
5th - Gold Present - 2nd at Cheltenham 2017
3rd - Generous Random - 3rd at Cheltenham 2015
1st - Rajdhani Express - 1st at Cheltenham 2013


2m5f handicap at Cheltenham on trials day
1st - Mr Whitaker - Won at Cheltenham 2018
1st - Generous Random - 3rd at Cheltenham 2015
3rd - Irish Cavalier - Won at Cheltenham 2015

Present View & Hunt Ball both won the hcap chase on Adonis day at Kempton but that was when this was a 140.

The other 2 horses had placed festival form over 2m4f. Ballyalton 2nd to Faugheen in Neptune & Tully East 4th in Martin Pipe at 50/1.

The only qualifiers this year are:
Highway One O One
Lough Derg Spirit
Dell Oro

[Quevega]

2 Key Trials for this race.

2m4f handicap at Kempton on 26th Dec.
2nd - Mr Whitaker - Won at Cheltenham 2018
2nd - Two Taffs - 3rd at Cheltenham 2017
5th - Gold Present - 2nd at Cheltenham 2017
3rd - Generous Random - 3rd at Cheltenham 2015
1st - Rajdhani Express - 1st at Cheltenham 2013


2m5f handicap at Cheltenham on trials day
1st - Mr Whitaker - Won at Cheltenham 2018
1st - Generous Random - 3rd at Cheltenham 2015
3rd - Irish Cavalier - Won at Cheltenham 2015

Present View & Hunt Ball both won the hcap chase on Adonis day at Kempton but that was when this was a 140.

The other 2 horses had placed festival form over 2m4f. Ballyalton 2nd to Faugheen in Neptune & Tully East 4th in Martin Pipe at 50/1.

The only qualifiers this year are:
Highway One O One
Lough Derg Spirit

Good stuff that.
already on both.
bookies gone mad on all irish runners today which is interesting as they have a reasonably poor record

Lough derg spirit news has been very quiet though.
reminds me of divine spear last year, so wouldn't surprise me if it misses the race. I know nothing, just guessing.

[Eggs]

....lots of noise regarding Riders onthe Storm for this since the weights came out. Good to see plenty of Blue for it on Oddschecker.

[The Don]

Has there been anything said anywhere about Lough Derg Spirit?

[ComplyOrDie]

Has there been anything said anywhere about Lough Derg Spirit?

Nope, very quiet, someone I speak to asked the question on Twitter but no response. Answered plenty about others though. Possibly in the balance (speculating only).

[lloydy]

Has there been anything said anywhere about Lough Derg Spirit?

Good news, in Henderson’s Unibet blog tonight he states LDS for the Close Bros

[ComplyOrDie]

Good news, in Henderson’s Unibet blog tonight he states LDS for the Close Bros

Missed that, cheers lloydy.

[Kevloaf]

What am I missing with Riders Onthe Storm? Has he shown any form whatsoever to say he's better than a 145 horse? (which is what a winner of this race would hopefully be)

He was absolutely thumped in the grade 1, beaten 21L - so the 3rd is a little flattering? (Jamie Lynch uses this as a positive sound byte)

He beat Impact Factor who was rated 134 by 1.25L, and then Impact Factor was beaten 19L by Poker Party (franking Speaker Connolly's chances IMO but that's for another post)...


So does it all hinge on Impact Factor splitting Cilaos Emery and Duc Des Genivres BEFORE they met?
That was CE's first run of the season and I know we all love him, but it wasn't going to be a peak performance... and DDG clearly hasn't run to the same form on 24/1/19 as he did at Gowran on 16th Feb when he bolted up.


I might be missing something obvious, so feel free to point it out...but that form would not be solid enough to justify 10/1 NRNB or 12/1 for me.

[Kevloaf]

Speaker Connolly has a much better chance IMO

Will be bottom weight if he gets in (which doesn't matter if he doesn't as money would come back) He beat Poker Party 5L in receipt of 1lb when Poker Party was rated 116, however Poker Party has won twice since, off 119 and 128 and has gone up another 10lbs to 138.

given that the Irish have been given between 4 and 7 lbs, we could put Poker Party at between 142-145 UK rating.

Beating him 5L getting lb, puts Speaker Connolly bang there with a UK mark of 139 - worst case scenario he's 3 lbs well in, and best case is 7lbs...

Other little positives are:

With connections that have won the race before
Handled 'the big occasion' well at Dublin Racing Festival (Won)
DRF winners showed no ill effects backing up at Cheltenham


I am looking at the 20/1 and I cannot resist.5 places 22/1 with WH will do actually - no other entry, if he gets balloted out it'll be a non runner and I'll ride my luck with injury

[ComplyOrDie]

What am I missing with Riders Onthe Storm? Has he shown any form whatsoever to say he's better than a 145 horse? (which is what a winner of this race would hopefully be)

He was absolutely thumped in the grade 1, beaten 21L - so the 3rd is a little flattering? (Jamie Lynch uses this as a positive sound byte)

He beat Impact Factor who was rated 134 by 1.25L, and then Impact Factor was beaten 19L by Poker Party (franking Speaker Connolly's chances IMO but that's for another post)...


So does it all hinge on Impact Factor splitting Cilaos Emery and Duc Des Genivres BEFORE they met?



I might be missing something obvious, so feel free to point it out... but 10/1 NRNB or 12/1, no thank-you?

You need to watch the Grade 1 where he was beat by 21l and then decide. A lot of the confidence is by the zero effort JJ showed on the horse when Getabird & Hardline went past him, basically did not move a muscle. It didn't go unnoticed by anyone.

Would not judge him on his 2m runs myself, he's not running over that trip in this race, and was too short.

Think Andy Holding him had him quite on a list, but can't remember what they list was for, only that it was a positive one.

[Kevloaf]

You need to watch the Grade 1 where he was beat by 21l and then decide. A lot of the confidence is by the zero effort JJ showed on the horse when Getabird & Hardline went past him, basically did not move a muscle. It didn't go unnoticed by anyone.

Would not judge him on his 2m runs myself, he's not running over that trip in this race, and was too short.

Think Andy Holding him had him quite on a list, but can't remember what they list was for, only that it was a positive one.

A little disrespectful to assume I haven't watched the race back more than once

Is it not a little bit too much of a conspiracy theory that he purposfully didn't try and go with them? He hadn't moved but he knew his horse was beat, so he's just coasted home? It's not BAD but if that is why people are getting jiggy I will be dead against him. You've basically got absolutely no clue what he finds off the bridle - which wouldn't be a positive.


I'm not knocking the horse, or anyone that's backed him, as I'm sure Andy Holding and Jamie Lynch do perfectly well.... what I am saying though is I don't see what the obvious case is to get him at 10/1 for this race, based on what we've seen.

I can also see he has a really high cruising speed... which is a positive, but he's just shooooooort in terms of handicapping. More to it than that though as I like to point out!

[ComplyOrDie]

A little disrespectful to assume I haven't watched the race back more than once

Is it not a little bit too much of a conspiracy theory that he purposfully didn't try and go with them? He hadn't moved but he knew his horse was beat, so he's just coasted home? It's not BAD but if that is why people are getting jiggy I will be dead against him. You've basically got absolutely no clue what he finds off the bridle - which wouldn't be a positive.


I'm not knocking the horse, or anyone that's backed him, as I'm sure Andy Holding and Jamie Lynch do perfectly well.... what I am saying though is I don't see what the obvious case is to get him at 10/1 for this race, based on what we've seen.

I can also see he has a really high cruising speed... which is a positive, but he's just shooooooort in terms of handicapping. More to it than that though as I like to point out!

I assumed you would have tbf, but as you were so perplexed and said he got hammered in the Grade 1, which he did, but without actually trying when push come to shove, that you maybe needed to re-visit the race

I think on his last try, when winning over 2m, we can see he finds enough off the bridle. I find it strange he's only been tried twice beyond 2m, one has been a grade 2 novice hurdle and the other a grade 1 beginners chase, setting up for a handicap plot? Possibly this one?

He was 2 lengths behind Hardline in a listed novice hurdle, so he has a level of ability. On breeding he should appreciate the step up in trip. Not just Jamie Lynch & Andy Holding, I have heard his name banded about by others too on previews/podcasts, so the 'plot' certainly hasn't gone under the radar, if of course there even is one.

[Faugheen_Machine]

You need to watch the Grade 1 where he was beat by 21l and then decide. A lot of the confidence is by the zero effort JJ showed on the horse when Getabird & Hardline went past him, basically did not move a muscle. It didn't go unnoticed by anyone.

Would not judge him on his 2m runs myself, he's not running over that trip in this race, and was too short.

Think Andy Holding him had him quite on a list, but can't remember what they list was for, only that it was a positive one.

Well summed up CoD. That grade 1 was when he caught my eye. He has such a high cruising speed that I'd be surprised if he wasn't last off the bridle and he won his last race like an extremely well handicapped horse.

He needs to be running over further than two miles to show his best and it's no coincidence that he's stepping up in trip at Cheltenham.

My worry about the close brothers is how he'll go in a big field handicap, it can be a very rough race and I'm not sure he'd appreciate being knocked about. With the JLT looking like cutting up, I still think he'd go very well in that race, for all he has a heap to find on the ratings.