Supreme Novice Hurdle 2019

[JackieMoon33]

Yes he did, and didnt debut till mid January either. JP no runner in triumph either that season, although henderson won it with zaynar.
Wonder how they make their minds up sometimes.

Didn’t McManus have the favourite for the Triumph (Franchoek) which was the reason Binocular went to the Supreme. If memory serves me correctly they both came second.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Didn’t McManus have the favourite for the Triumph (Franchoek) which was the reason Binocular went to the Supreme. If memory serves me correctly they both came second.

That's what I thought Jackie. They surely wouldn't have done it if not - I'll check.

[Faugheen_Machine]

That's what I thought Jackie. They surely wouldn't have done it if not - I'll check.

You're right, they were both in 2008.

Did JP purchase Franchoek just before the festival so that he had a runner? That rings a bell with me but not 100% sure.

[doctorwu]

A remember plenty on here waxing lyrical about Charlie (pig) Parcs. Dodging Horses, blaming ground, a when he did take a decent horse on stumbled when he was completely out of petrol Hendo saying he'd have won for the bad error
Hendo had a few too many red wines that day. He's actually got a terrible novice hurdle record at the festival if you consider the amount of short priced horses he presents at the festival. Over bet, under perform. All imho.

[cpfcpatriot]

Unless Annamix comes back with something special, I think this Supreme is as wide open as last year.

[Quevega]

That's what I thought Jackie. They surely wouldn't have done it if not - I'll check.

Apologies, was looking at 2009 by mistake

[mayo]

angels breath the one imo. Fair comments about Henderson record though - not necessarily a bad thing if it means horses have longer career.

[FaugheenTheMachine]

Everyone else seriously underwhelmed by the novice hurdlers so far this season?

[bobbyvalentino]

Everyone else seriously underwhelmed by the novice hurdlers so far this season?

So far, yes.

[Quevega]

That Meade horse = Valdieu looked good just then. Looked a really nice horse

[jono]

Can't understand the knocking of Henderson's novice hurdlers. Taking the past 5 seasons and say comparing him to Willie Mullins who arguably sets the benchmark in this division during that time:

Henderson:
23 runners - 1 win, 6 places, 16 unplaced = 4.3% / 26% / 69.7%

Mullins:
52 runners - 5 wins, 7 places, 40 unplaced = 9.6% / 13.5% / 76.9%

No exact reason for the cut off point but using 8/1 as a price that is I feel 'relatively fancied' in the market (as not sure taking big priced runners is overly relevant), he's had 7 runners under 8/1.

Henderson:
7 runners 8/1 or under - 1 win, 2 places, 4 unplaced = 14.3% / 28.6% / 57.1%

Mullins:
20 runners 8/1 or under - 4 wins, 5 places, 11 unplaced = 20% / 25% / 55%



Mullins beats him easily with winners but then bar Penhill at 16/1, his 4 other winners were 2/1F, 7/2F, 3/1, 6/4F.
He also had runners priced at 7/4F, 5/2F and 2/1F who all unplaced in this time.

Henderson has only had 1 fav in the last 5 years in all 3 races - Santini 11/4F finished 3rd.
His only other 2 runners below 4/1 were Altior who won and L'Ami Serge who came 4th.

I'll happily back a Henderson horse I fancy without any hesitation



Supreme

Henderson = 5-36-13-4-23 (1 wins, 4 placed, 3 unplaced)
Henderson Favs = none
Henderson under 8/1 = 314 (1 win, 1 placed, 1 unplaced)

Mullins = 80-2500-280-1267-160 (2 wins, 3 placed, 11 unplaced)
Mullins Favs = 02211 (2 wins, 2 placed, 1 unplaced)
Mullins under 8/1 = 0202116 (2 wins, 2 placed, 3 unplaced)

2018
Henderson
Claimintakinforgan 16/1 - 5th

Mullins
Getabird 7/4F - 11th
Sharjah 20/1 - 8th

2017
Henderson
River Wylde 8/1 - 3rd
Beyond Conceit 16/1 - 6th

Mullins
Melon 3/1F - 2nd
Cilaos Emery 12/1 - 5th
Bunk Off Early 6/1 - 12th
Crack Mome 11/1 - 13th

2016
Henderson
Altior 4/1 - 1st
Buveur D'Air 10/1 - 3rd

Mullins
Min 15/8F - 2nd
Petit Mouchoir 20/1 - 8th
Bellshill 11/1 - 13th

2015
Henderson
L'ami Serge 7/2 - 4th

Mullins
Douvan 2/1F - 1st
Shaneshill 9/1 - 2nd
Tell us More 12/1 - 6th
Alvisio Ville 20/1 - 7th

2014
Henderson
Josses Hill 14/1 - 2nd
Vaniteux 11/1 - 3rd

Mullins
Vautour 7/2F - 1st
Wicklow Brave 8/1 - 6th
Valseur Lido 16/1 - 10th

Ballymore

Henderson = /-4F-8-4-00 (0 wins, 6 unplaced)
Henderson Favs = none
Henderson under 8/1 = 4 (1 unplaced)

Mullins = 3459-50PP-147P-36-13 (2 wins, 3 placed, 11 unplaced)
Mullins Favs = 31 (1 win, 1 placed)
Mullins under 8/1 = 3P173613 (2 wins, 3 placed, 3 unplaced)

2018
Henderson
No runners

Mullins
Next Destination 4/1 - 3rd
Scarpeta 33/1 - 4th
Duc de Geniveries 10/1 - 5th
Brahma Bull 25/1 - 9th

2017
Henderson
Burbank 50/1 - 4th
Consul de Thaix 16/1 - F

Mullins
Kemboy 16/1 - 5th
Livelovelaugh 16/1 - 10th
Bacardys 4/1 - PU
Bon Papa 18/1 - PU

2016
Henderson
O O Seven 20/1 - 8th

Mullins
Yorkhill 3/1 - 1st
Bello Conti 20/1 - 4th
A To Phil 8/1 - 7th
Thomas Hobson 14/1 - PU

2015
Henderson
Vyta du Roc 15/2 - 4th

Mullins
Milsean 33/1 - 2nd
Nichols Canyon 7/2F - 3rd
Outlander 4/1 - 6th

2014
Henderson
Cup Final 16/1 - 10th
Cocktails at Dawn 33/1 - 11th

Mullins
Faugheen 6/4F - 1st
Rathvinden 11/2 - 3rd

Albert Bartlett

Henderson = 23PP-40-/-PF-P (0 wins, 2 placed, 7 unplaced)
Henderson Favs = 3 (1 placed)
Henderson under 8/1 = 3PP (1 placed, 2 unplaced)

Mullins = 470-160P-568UFUP-2478P-F (1 win, 1 placed, 18 unplaced)
Mullins Favs = 7F (2 unplaced)
Mullins under 8/1 = 66U7F (5 unplaced)

2018
Henderson
Ok Corral 16/1 - 2nd
Santini 11/4F - 3rd
Chef des Obeaux 6/1 - PU
Mr Whipped 16/1 - PU

Mullins
Ballyward 20/1 - 4th
Fabulous Saga 20/1 - 7th
Real Steel 33/1 - 11th

2017
Henderson
Constantine Bay 12/1 - 4th
Baden 100/1 11th

Mullins
Penhill 16/1 - 1st
Augusta Kate 11/2 - 6th
C'est Jersey 100/1 - 10th
Turcagua 66/1 - PU

2016
Henderson
No runners

Mullins
Balko des Flos 40/1 - 5th
Gangster 15/2 - 6th
Open Eagle 20/1 - 8th
Bachasson 28/1 - U
Bleu et Rouge 10/1 - F
Lond Dog 5/1 - U
Up for Review 12/1 - PU

2015
Henderson
Carachi Apache 20/1 - PU
Out Sam 14/1 - F

Mullins
Milsean 33/1 - 2nd
Arbre de Vie 16/1 - 4th
Black Hercules 5/2F - 7th
Measureofmydreams 100/1 - 8th
Avant Tout 100/1 - PU

2014
Henderson
Captain Cutter 7/1 - PU

Mullins
Briar Hill 2/1F - F

[Kevloaf]

Interesting reading.

Just to rattle your cage, is the point that stands out there, than despite the absolute wealth of talent Henderson has, and some superb horses, only 3 have them have been under 4/1?

Is there not a line of thought that says he has super talented horses, that go on to be better after their novice hurdle campaign, and he doesn't get the best out of them?

His record as you've highlighted isn't bad, and I wouldn't avoid backing his horses anyway, but with all that talent, none of them seem to turn up in March as fancied beasts, which is the most surprising thing?

[ComplyOrDie]

I'm not sure it's the knocking of Henderson himself though, more the so called 'hype' that surrounds individual horses. I think it pays to follow NH & WPM for the Supreme, but the average, maybe even lazy punter, who doesn't do the early groundwork would want to get either of them trainers runners beat as they are usually shorter in price than they actually should be.

It's certainly not just Henderson's horses that get knocked, WPM is in the same boat though I'm not sure either trainer really cares what is written on this forum or other forums tbh.

[Kevloaf]

Does anyone have the exact comments from Gordon regarding Battleoverdoyen NOT running at 2 miles?

I can cash out for profit, but am still tempted to wait for the NRNB price (hopefully within the next 48 hours!)

[jono]

Does anyone have the exact comments from Gordon regarding Battleoverdoyen NOT running at 2 miles?

I can cash out for profit, but am still tempted to wait for the NRNB price (hopefully within the next 48 hours!)

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">This season will be all about two and a half to three miles,&quot; says Gordon Elliott of future chaser Battleoverdoyen, who was cut for the Ballymore after winning today<br><br>Results**➡ *<a href="https://t.co/7iJOPsdIyZ">https://t.co/7iJOPsdIyZ</a> <a href="https://t.co/dUzUFeMOjb">pic.twitter.com/dUzUFeMOjb</a></p>&mdash; Racing TV (@RacingTV) <a href="https://twitter.com/RacingTV/status/1081917451523313666?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 6, 2019</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

This season will be all about two and a half to three miles ...he wouldn't come back to 2 anyway