Arkle 2019

[ComplyOrDie]

I know you have a different opinion, and thats fair enough. I also understand that's what betting is all about. But that's not the point Im making.

I just dont think it makes sense to crab Lalor simply because you don't rate Dingo Dollars. That was still the best form we've seen yet, so should be worthy of respect, even if others have a higher ceiling.

In bumpers and over hurdles, he's already comfortably beaten Vision des Flos, Bedrock, Minds Eye, Coolanly, Slate House, Style de Garde, Western Ryder, If The Cap Fits, Claimantakinforgan Black Op etc so his form does have some substance to it.

Especially for one who definitely fits into the 'whatever he did in bumpers and over hurdles was a bonus' camp.

Whilst I am not quite as against Lalor as Scooby is, if we talk form then Lalor got absolutely hammered by Kalashnikov in the Betfair Hurdle, some 39 lengths getting 4lb from him also, which would put their comparative prices for this race some way off, would it not?

Lalor was certainly the most impressive chase debut IMO, however, what he beat is questionable. Claimantakinforgan is not a 2 miler, Pingshou was off the back of 570 days off a race course, Defi Du Seuil looks as though he has lost it, for whatever reason, and Dynamite Dollars will probably be a fair yard stick but nothing more.

The above taken into account, I don't think any of the other front market runners have beaten an awful lot yet either, and quite frankly unless you got on at fanciable prices (in which case congrats) they certainly make no appeal now.

The market will take a turn again once we see the Mullins lot come out, you can guarantee that much.

[Can't Catch Me]

Im not saying he's a good bet now either scooby. But I dont think he's a bad bet or the wrong price.

If you think he is the wrong price, then there must be some decent value elsewhere. Do you think Kalashnikov or Mengli Khan are good bets? If you take those three horses in isolation in this market, as the current principals, they look about right to me.

[Can't Catch Me]

Whilst I am not quite as against Lalor as Scooby is, if we talk form then Lalor got absolutely hammered by Kalashnikov in the Betfair Hurdle, some 39 lengths getting 4lb from him also, which would put their comparative prices for this race some way off, would it not?

Lalor was certainly the most impressive chase debut IMO, however, what he beat is questionable. Claimantakinforgan is not a 2 miler, Pingshou was off the back of 570 days off a race course, Defi Du Seuil looks as though he has lost it, for whatever reason, and Dynamite Dollars will probably be a fair yard stick but nothing more.

The above taken into account, I don't think any of the other front market runners have beaten an awful lot yet either, and quite frankly unless you got on at fanciable prices (in which case congrats) they certainly make no appeal now.

The market will take a turn again once we see the Mullins lot come out, you can guarantee that much.

But only if you think that run in the Betfair Hurdle was as good as Lalor is COD? I would personally forgive any horse one bad run and wouldn't have it on mind in comparing the two over fences tbh.

[ComplyOrDie]

But only if you think that run in the Betfair Hurdle was as good as Lalor is COD? I would personally forgive any horse one bad run and wouldn't have it on mind in comparing the two over fences tbh.

I agree, but then if we go down them lines we can question the horses he beat in them races, did they just have off days? Were they running at inadequate trips? Especially ones like Western Ryder, Claimantakinforgan, Black Op, who all look to need further anyway, I mean Western Ryder finished ahead of Lalor and Summerville Boy in a novice hurdle but WR couldn't get near SB in the Supreme.

The form is all a little bit confused, which is one reason why I think it will show up as being a weak year IMHO. I think it is very easy to pick out the bits of form that add to an argument, trust me I do it and miss the bits that also need to be questioned as well.

If you factor in that connections have not gone to the festival for the past 2 seasons with him yet have gone to Aintree instead, you have to question his price right now.

[Can't Catch Me]

Agree entirely about the form COD. I guess its always like that, apart from the occasions where you have the really top class horses. You could probably run the exact same race four or five times over a season and get a different result as horses will peak at different times.

Personally Im not worried about them skipping Cheltenham at all. How could you after the last run?!

[delsie777]

A lot of reference to old hurdle form. I think the point is that some horses just plainly improve for a fence. At the risk of falling into the 'always had the look of a chaser' bracket, Lalor just looked a bit special at Cheltenham, didn't he? Rather like Footpad did on his debut last year. The question of value is something different but people have clearly been backing him at 10's, 8's, 7's & 6's and that's why he keeps shortening. To be honest, I would be far more worried about what Mengli beat in Ireland than what Lalor beat at Cheltenham. MK did do it well - but it just didn't make you sit up and take notice in quite the way Lalor's performance did. Good luck to those with huge eachway prices. You're in a great place as the race nearly always cuts up. Hope he stays fit and well.

[boopa]

MK showed it can wing one and pop over when in close. It was a safe antepost as it was likely to be Elliot's Arkle horse. The question mark I had was its breeding. That was put to bed yesterday.

[Can't Catch Me]

A lot of reference to old hurdle form. I think the point is that some horses just plainly improve for a fence. At the risk of falling into the 'always had the look of a chaser' bracket, Lalor just looked a bit special at Cheltenham, didn't he? Rather like Footpad did on his debut last year. The question of value is something different but people have clearly been backing him at 10's, 8's, 7's & 6's and that's why he keeps shortening. To be honest, I would be far more worried about what Mengli beat in Ireland than what Lalor beat at Cheltenham. MK did do it well - but it just didn't make you sit up and take notice in quite the way Lalor's performance did. Good luck to those with huge eachway prices. You're in a great place as the race nearly always cuts up. Hope he stays fit and well.

Good to see you on here delsie!

[bobbyvalentino]

Jumping fences at 2 mile festival gallop is such a specialist act that the recent years in which we've had elite horses in the novice ranks has had the knock on impact of scaring a lot of the competition away.

You can normally pick out a select few high achieving novice hurdlers from the previous season that have the pace and are likely to improve for a fence, and hence build a reasonably confident "book" on the Arkle pre-debut. It's quite rare to see a horse improve for a fence as much as Footpad supposedly did, but then again he was competing in a Champion Hurdle the year before and wouldn't have been impossible to find.

Now it's probably too early to prove, and we will know more after the weekend, but my hunch is that the two mile novice hurdle crop from last year were a sub-par bunch. The form lines are particularly muddling and it's very unlikely there was a superstar. My response has been to take a bit of a spread bet approach at summer prices, based loosely on form achieved, vibes and trainers, and I've been quite fortunate in that those have made nice debuts that are now the top three in the market.

I could not make a strong case for any of them however, and they are now all awful prices based on what we've seen so far. It's a very open year and no result would surprise me. For what it's worth I would have Kalashnikov favourite, then Lalor, then MK, but I couldn't entertain any at the odds. Unless you've got a nice angle on a fancy price (I think 104 times bumped CE just about qualifies) there's much better ante-post betting opportunities around.

[charlie]

I think it's a multitude of factors that have propelled Lalor to the top of the market. Jumped very well, won first time out, did it at Cheltenham, it's an emotional win for Kayley Woollacott which has gabbed lots of headlines, the market is lacking depth/standout star and ultimately, he was visually impressive. Nothing wrong with questioning the form, we have to, but IMO it's all of these things that have collectively resulted in him being fav.

[taylorch1990]

Looking at the arkle betting I think it's just about right at the moment if maybe swap Kalashnikov and Mengli Khan but it's close enough. I agree with the previous point that the fact they kept beating each other over hurdles probably means it was an average bunch so might be best looking at a horse outside of last years 2 mile novices, so can see the reason behind Cilaos Emery. But going back to the front 3 in the market if they are fairly closely matched on hurdle form (if you can excuse Lalor in the betfair hurdle) then all you can do is go by their chase debuts and Lalors was so much better. He was the most impressive jumper of the 3 in the strongest race and over course and distance of the Arkle. Can't fault anyone whose on them at bigger odds, but I believe Kalashnikov has always been too short in this market.

[delsie777]

I was always quite a fan of Cilaos Emery but where has all this love for him for The Arkle come from? Has he been schooling really well or something? I take it he's an intended runner in that big trial race in Ireland over Christmas?

[charlie]

I was always quite a fan of Cilaos Emery but where has all this love for him for The Arkle come from? Has he been schooling really well or something? I take it he's an intended runner in that big trial race in Ireland over Christmas?

Scooby schooled him last week and he’s flying apparently

[Scooby91]

I was always quite a fan of Cilaos Emery but where has all this love for him for The Arkle come from? Has he been schooling really well or something? I take it he's an intended runner in that big trial race in Ireland over Christmas?

Highest rated hurdler going novice chasing. His rating of 159 is rock solid and been achieved in open company. If he can jump a fence, which Imo he's hes always had chaser written all over him. Then He'll be the one to beat imo.

[Kevloaf]

I was always quite a fan of Cilaos Emery but where has all this love for him for The Arkle come from? Has he been schooling really well or something? I take it he's an intended runner in that big trial race in Ireland over Christmas?

Combination of lack of actual horses to talk about, scooby putting up Footpad last season way before he ran and the 28/1 any race available being appealing.

Nothing concrete other that highest rated hurdler..... and welcome (back) to the forum