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I know how much you guys love trends ! So what we do about this fact. As a guide 18 of the last 20 winners of the GC came from the first 3 in the betting. It's pretty clear that PP will stay there unless he make a hash of his next race, so the other ones in the trio are probably dependant on the outcome of the Leopardstown GC and the Denman Chase. Currently Native River and Kemboy are 2nd and 3rd on the NRNB prices supplied earlier but there has been plenty of criticism of their chances on this forum.
I still don't like backing short price FAVs for the GC so I'm continuing to search for some potential value elsewhere. As already mentioned Sizing John 16s win and Anivsle Fly 25s ew appeal based on what they could achieve if reaching previous firm levels. If the trainers can't get them ready in time to a good standard then they won't run. If they get them to the race then I think they would give a good account of themselves.
Should the second season novices run well on Sunday, like Kemboy, Monalee, Al Boum Photo - you'd be far better served looking at one of those types ( EE, Terrefort, Invitation Only, shattered Love etc) at a price than Sizing John & Anibale Fly.
Can't remember any horse with profiles like SJ & AF coming back and doing anything other than scraping a place in a poor renewal.
No one is saying Presenting Certainty is bomb proof based on his form ... not even me
Would I take the 3/1 - no. That's only because they'll be out to get him on race day and I think they'll push him to 4/1. I do think he is by far the most likely winner and I really don't rate those at the head of the market.
CDO - under performed at Cheltenham previously
Native River - looks even slower this season, needs soft going
Kemboy - won't stay imo, also an average run at Cheltenham last season
RTR - could be the danger
Thistlecrack - too old and won't stay well enough
ABP - can't see him turning round last season's RSA form. Place potential.
Might Bite - gone at the game
Frodon - I will never bet again if he wins. No chance. Zilch. Zero. It ain't happening.
I'm sure there was some on here unwilling to take 11/2-6/1 about PP, so trying to talk them into backing him at 3/1 is like banging your head against a brick wall.
I have suspicions some were hoping he'd be beat first time out in order to get a better price, unfortunately that never materialised and subsequently he ran in a rubbish hurdles race and was cut accordingly because it proves his well being if nothing else. Not to mention the lack of opposition form, Kemboy, Al Boum Photo & Clan Des Obeaux aside. Though I have my own doubts about that form.
Now the price has gone I think the stance for those not backing him at 6's has to stand, whether that be out of stubbornness, or own true belief that he won't win, who knows.
Last edited by ComplyOrDie; 30 January 2019, 06:10 PM.
Keenan article on ATR, pretty much written by myself.
second season novices are a very good crop, and the irish juveniles have the edge
Apart from the tips.
I know how much you guys love trends ! So what we do about this fact. As a guide 18 of the last 20 winners of the GC came from the first 3 in the betting. It's pretty clear that PP will stay there unless he make a hash of his next race, so the other ones in the trio are probably dependant on the outcome of the Leopardstown GC and the Denman Chase. Currently Native River and Kemboy are 2nd and 3rd on the NRNB prices supplied earlier but there has been plenty of criticism of their chances on this forum.
I still don't like backing short price FAVs for the GC so I'm continuing to search for some potential value elsewhere. As already mentioned Sizing John 16s win and Anibale Fly 25s ew appeal based on what they could achieve if reaching previous form levels. If the trainers can't get them ready in time to a good standard then they won't run. If they get them to the race then I think they would give a good account of themselves.
Talking of trends ( everyone sharpen there knifes) Frodon lacking the Grade 1 win albeit improved this season without contesting one looks a biggish one to overcome, sure i read only one of the last 20 have won without one
Native River - looks even slower this season, needs soft
!
How does NR look slower this season FM ?
His runs have been on flat tracks over unsuitably short trips, I think he’s done nothing but enhance his crudentials....
How does NR look slower this season FM ?
His runs have been on flat tracks over unsuitably short trips, I think he’s done nothing but enhance his crudentials....
They'd have been better doing the same this season as last.
Denman Chase then Gold cup.
Horse looks brave but tired and a bit slower, mileage issue with him I reckon.
Couldn't totally rule him out though to be fair.
How does NR look slower this season FM ?
His runs have been on flat tracks over unsuitably short trips, I think he’s done nothing but enhance his crudentials....
NR never really went a yard at Kempton and was being pushed along after only a few fences. It was a similar story at Haydock, where again he didn't really travel throughout the race.
He is a thorough stayer but I just think last season's gold cup may have left its mark. He did finish third at Kempton but he was never in the race imo and if he isn't traveling in the gold cup he'll be up against it from the off.
Edit - never went a yard is perhaps a tad harsh but he was off the bridle very early.
Surely you’ve been married for long enough to know that’s par for the course...
A fair point but so is this....?
Does Native River strike you as a multiple (back-to-back) Gold Cup winner?
That impressive list consists of:
Kauto Star
Best Mate
L'Escargot
Arkle
Golden Miller
Cottage Rake
Now you don't need to be too deeply involved in the sport to know that they are a cut above the likes of Native Bloomin' River?
Minella Rocco hasn't done much for the form either
and again, Presenting Percy will have no trouble holding on to a pace that he's setting, Kemboy, Frodon, Clan Des Obeaux will all be able to live with him for the first 2 miles at least.
Last edited by Kevloaf; 30 January 2019, 06:40 PM.
No horse ever wins a Gold Cup on the bridle, NH racing is awash with stayers that come on and off the bridle, staying is his game so if he happens to be 6l off the pace halfway round I won’t be panicking if he’s asked to get closer.
Haydock and Kempton will never show NR at his best, more undulating and stamina demanding tracks is what he needs, I think Tizzard has run him deliberately in those races to get him racing at quicker pace....
No horse ever wins a Gold Cup on the bridle, NH racing is awash with stayers that come on and off the bridle, staying is his game so if he happens to be 6l off the pace halfway round I won’t be panicking if he’s asked to get closer.
Haydock and Kempton will never show NR at his best, more undulating and stamina demanding tracks is what he needs, I think Tizzard has run him deliberately in those races to get him racing at quicker pace....
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