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It’s literally just the price with Percy isn’t it? With the way the RSA has worked out, the fact we know he relishes the hill at Cheltenham if he was 5/1 people would be saying what a great bet he is
hasnt run in an open grade 1
yet to run in a chase with good in the going description
Personally think he'll be taken off his feet. He'll need to be a very quick learner to go close in a gold cup, first time of asking going at a pace he isnt used to
As a novice he had the pace to be a 1L second in a grade 2 chase with Balleycasey 16L back in 3rd?
There isnt, you're assuming he can jump and run well first time of asking in a grade 1. As i say he'd need to learn quickly if he's to figure in a gold cup. Personally i'd prefer to be backing horses i know that have proven themselves. Good luck with him, he obviously opens a lot of debate
There isnt, you're assuming he can jump and run well first time of asking in a grade 1. As i say he'd need to learn quickly if he's to figure in a gold cup. Personally i'd prefer to be backing horses i know that have proven themselves. Good luck with him, he obviously opens a lot of debate
RSA is a Grade 1 and the horses he beat have done fine in open company, so it's only a small leap.
I know you prefer bigger prices so I can see why you'd want to take him on though my friend.
I heard PP hasn't jumped a single fence at home either. There was even word that when he approached his first fence the other day, he came to a sudden stop, unseated his work rider, looked at the fence with a puzzled look on his face and just started nibbling the top of it. Gone at the game. Wouldn't take 50's.
Ok punters, time to play Be The Bookie. As per the Champion Hurdle thread, working out your own book sometimes gives a clearer picture.
As a guide, Paddy Power, who some think have the best angle on Irish form (not necessarily true), go:
9/2 Presenting Percy (6/1)
7/1 Native River (10/1)
8/1 Might Bite (12/1)
10/1 Road To Respect (8/1)
16/1 Sizing John (16/1)
16/1 Footpad (16/1)
20/1 Bristol De Mai (20/1)
20/1 Bellshill (12/1)
20/1 Balko Des Flos (20/1)
20/1 Monalee (16/1)
25/1 Definitly Red (25/1)
25/1 Al Boum Photo (16/1)
25/1 Thistlecrack (16/1)
giving a 93.3% book
plus 8 (Shattered Love/Killultagh Vic/Disko/Terrefort/Kemboy/Anibale Fly/Politologue/Waiting Patiently) at 33/1
which takes the book up to 116.5%.
My prices (in brackets) add up to 92.8% and of the 33/1 shots, I'd probably have Kemboy and Shattered Love on 25/1 with Killultagh Vic and Politologue on 40/1.
If you have a go, there's no point in being smart and having a 70% or 150% book unless you can make the business case.
Paddy now goes (NRNB):
5/2 Presenting Percy
5/1 Native River
9/1 Kemboy
9/1 Clan Des Obeaux
11/1 Road To Respect
12/1 Al Boum Photo
14/1 Thistlecrack
16/1 Might Bite
16/1 Frodon
16/1 Sizing John
16/1 Bellshill
20/1 Elegant Escape
20/1 Definitly Red
20/1 Monalee
25/1 8 others
which comes to about 160%.
With the rider that Sunday's winner will come down in price, I'd have Kemboy and Clan Des Obeaux a little shorter because they won the most significant races so far. I'd also shorten up Road To Respect and Bellshill on the balance of their G1 form. To balance that out, you could name your own price for Might Bite (win only) and Presenting Percy would be around 5/1 with Native River. On all known form, 5/2 is a price for mugs and lemmings.
You'd think there had only ever been winners of races who already had the best form in the book... and that no horse had ever produced a career best in a Gold Cup the way you're looking at that market.
If somebody takes the price of Presenting Percy now, and it wins, that'll clearly be the best form PP has put in.
It looks like you're making out that is unfeasible? There is more than FORM to create a price.
Repeating myself but it keeps getting ignored ....
Last edited by Kevloaf; 30 January 2019, 05:24 PM.
You'd think there had only ever been winners of races who already had the best form in the book... and that no horse had ever produced a career best in a Gold Cup the way you're looking at that market.
If somebody takes the price of Presenting Percy now, and it wins, that'll clearly be the best form PP has put in.
It looks like you're making out that is unfeasible? There is more than FORM to create a price.
Repeating myself but it keeps getting ignored ....
Exactly. Coneygree won a gold cup on his 4th chase start
I know how much you guys love trends ! So what we do about this fact. As a guide 18 of the last 20 winners of the GC came from the first 3 in the betting. It's pretty clear that PP will stay there unless he make a hash of his next race, so the other ones in the trio are probably dependant on the outcome of the Leopardstown GC and the Denman Chase. Currently Native River and Kemboy are 2nd and 3rd on the NRNB prices supplied earlier but there has been plenty of criticism of their chances on this forum.
I still don't like backing short price FAVs for the GC so I'm continuing to search for some potential value elsewhere. As already mentioned Sizing John 16s win and Anibale Fly 25s ew appeal based on what they could achieve if reaching previous form levels. If the trainers can't get them ready in time to a good standard then they won't run. If they get them to the race then I think they would give a good account of themselves.
Last edited by Nortons who; 30 January 2019, 05:53 PM.
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