Cheltenham Gold Cup - 2019.

[archie]

To a certain extent, I accept that the RSA is usually the best 3m novice chase form of the season. However, the going was so poor for the last Festival that I don't think that any of the form is necessarily reliable. Based on Might Bite being given 161 the previous year and 162 for following up at Aintree, I can't see that 167 was a proper mark for Percy and see still less reason why he went up to 169 without running. The best of the younger novices can go up 10lb or more in open company but there's no guarantee and the only evidence we have for Percy this season is that he is maybe 4lb better over hurdles.

Of course, the horses don't know what their ratings are and they only matter in a handicap but there is no form out there that justifies 169 for Percy as it stands. When he next runs in a chase there may be but the current price is based on faith rather than reason. Nothing wrong with that but no-one should try to pretend otherwise.

[Istabraq]

Anyone willing to give Terrefort another look for a Gold Cup run, especially if he bounces back tomorrow? I know Cotswold chase form isn't great going to Gold Cup but I've had a few bits of 66s on him and I'm desperately clinging on for a run!

In a way answering my own question, he was impressive at Aintree after being beaten by Shattered Love, (shattering my heart and all) so maybe owners might look at skipping the festival and sending him there

For me no, but I think the front two in the market are vulnerable tomorrow, 3m I’m not convinced suits either Frodon or Elegant Escape, so there’s a danger he could be flattered by whatever he achieves tomorrow and his price for the Gold Cup shortens without him really proving himself a potential Gold Cup horse...

[Unseated Rider]

For me no, but I think the front two in the market are vulnerable tomorrow, 3m I’m not convinced suits either Frodon or Elegant Escape, so there’s a danger he could be flattered by whatever he achieves tomorrow and his price for the Gold Cup shortens without him really proving himself a potential Gold Cup horse...

Aye , just a watching brief for me tomorrow but will be fascinated to see if his Last run was too bad to be true. Thought I read yesterday that Daryl is riding Valtor instead but it looks like he stays on Terrefort

[Quevega]

To a certain extent, I accept that the RSA is usually the best 3m novice chase form of the season. However, the going was so poor for the last Festival that I don't think that any of the form is necessarily reliable. Based on Might Bite being given 161 the previous year and 162 for following up at Aintree, I can't see that 167 was a proper mark for Percy and see still less reason why he went up to 169 without running. The best of the younger novices can go up 10lb or more in open company but there's no guarantee and the only evidence we have for Percy this season is that he is maybe 4lb better over hurdles.

Of course, the horses don't know what their ratings are and they only matter in a handicap but there is no form out there that justifies 169 for Percy as it stands. When he next runs in a chase there may be but the current price is based on faith rather than reason. Nothing wrong with that but no-one should try to pretend otherwise.

I kind of agree with much of that.

The faith rather than reason comment though I have an issue with.

There is sufficient reason and logic to anticipate PP will improve similarly to other novices he faced last year. And potentially past older chasers, as this also has happened and historical evidence will show this.

Although, I accept with regards to the individual horse, that hasn't been evidenced fully yet this season or last. And certainly not for some observers.

Faith is more often about believing in something without any proof or evidence.

The reasons and odds for a horses chances in the gold cup, are a prediction in percentage terms of the likely outcome based on a lot of rationale and reasoning, and previous historical evidence.
It's up to the individual punter if they believe there is sufficient reason or not, at the price.

Not just having faith, or basing it on that.

[Kevloaf]

To a certain extent, I accept that the RSA is usually the best 3m novice chase form of the season. However, the going was so poor for the last Festival that I don't think that any of the form is necessarily reliable. Based on Might Bite being given 161 the previous year and 162 for following up at Aintree, I can't see that 167 was a proper mark for Percy and see still less reason why he went up to 169 without running. The best of the younger novices can go up 10lb or more in open company but there's no guarantee and the only evidence we have for Percy this season is that he is maybe 4lb better over hurdles.

Of course, the horses don't know what their ratings are and they only matter in a handicap but there is no form out there that justifies 169 for Percy as it stands. When he next runs in a chase there may be but the current price is based on faith rather than reason. Nothing wrong with that but no-one should try to pretend otherwise.

Faith rather than reason?

That implies all bets should be based strictly on form.

That's not the case.


*** hadn't read Quevega''s reply before posting. Apologies

[Viking Flagship]

I kind of agree with much of that.

The faith rather than reason comment though I have an issue with.

There is sufficient reason and logic to anticipate PP will improve similarly to other novices he faced last year. And potentially past older chasers, as this also has happened and historical evidence will show this.

Although, I accept with regards to the individual horse, that hasn't been evidenced fully yet this season or last. And certainly not for some observers.

Faith is more often about believing in something without any proof or evidence.

The reasons and odds for a horses chances in the gold cup, are a prediction in percentage terms of the likely outcome based on a lot of rationale and reasoning, and previous historical evidence.
It's up to the individual punter if they believe there is sufficient reason or not, at the price.

Not just having faith, or basing it on that.

Can we add a ‘like’ button to this forum Kev? Or have I just become a social media sucker?

This is a good post Q.

[Kevloaf]

For me no, but I think the front two in the market are vulnerable tomorrow, 3m I’m not convinced suits either Frodon or Elegant Escape, so there’s a danger he could be flattered by whatever he achieves tomorrow and his price for the Gold Cup shortens without him really proving himself a potential Gold Cup horse...

Minella Rocco a big player for you tomorrow?

l think I worked out why we disagreed... I don't rate the Native RIver / Minella Rocco / Sizing John form lines very highly anymore ...

I know I'm against the grain on NR, as the bookies seem to have agreed with you and he's been trimmed over the season ...

I'm really hopeful EE puts in a strong performance tomorrow although I'd have preferred him not to run at all and go straight there!

I wouldn't back Minella Rocco tomorrow so it'll be a blow to me if MR is still a player in this division.

[Kevloaf]

Can we add a ‘like’ button to this forum Kev? Or have I just become a social media sucker?

This is a good post Q.

Haha you'd need to ask Old Vic. He's the man up top.

Probably the latter though

[Quevega]

Faith rather than reason?

That implies all bets should be based strictly on form.

That's not the case.


*** hadn't read Quevega''s reply before posting. Apologies

as usual, pretty much said same as me but in less words.

[Kevloaf]

Not really alone Kev, I backed him ap for the King George so was disappointed not to see him there, would have liked to have had a more recent outing to judge him on. I haven't heard if there's a problem of some sort and I don't remember the ground at Kempton being used as an excuse, so he's a hard one to have a strong fancy for in the Gold cup. I think FM is a fan too from memory.

Glad to hear MrM. He did have a set back but I can't put my finger on what ... but Hendo 100% did confirm it!

[archie]

There is sufficient reason and logic to anticipate PP will improve similarly to other novices he faced last year. And potentially past older chasers, as this also has happened and historical evidence will show this.

Post race rating/Current rating

2018 RSA

167/169 Presenting Percy
158/161 Monalee
151/159 Elegant Escape

2018 JLT

153/155 Shattered Love
153/158 Terrefort
149/149 Benatar
145/167 Kemboy

There is no logic or consistency about the improvement and there is no logic behind assuming that Percy will improve at any particular rate.

Pure...blind...faith.

[archie]

Faith rather than reason?

That implies all bets should be based strictly on form.

That's not the case.


*** hadn't read Quevega''s reply before posting. Apologies

No it doesn't imply anything of the sort. I specifically said that there was nothing wrong with faith.

[Quevega]

Smallish sample,

But the logic is that most of them have improved, and this is clearly fairly consistent.
By how much is another thing altogether and is yet to be seen this season.

It's actually less logical to expect the better horses not to improve, and this thought process actually requires more faith than logic

Anyway - Robin de carlow,
what are we expecting tomorrow and then for cheltenham going forward.
You can answer logically and faith based if you like.
I'll probably take the middle ground.

And good luck with her

[jack1092]

The fact that most novices improve going into open company + the ones behind PP have must suggest PP has a good chance of improving his figures too. By how much, who knows? Not as much as a horse such as Kemboy? Probably, but he doesn't need to.

[archie]

Cheers. Logically I'm not sure why she's running over the shorter trip and I have little faith in her ability to win at this trip. Maybe they're confirming that the Mares Novice would be a dumb idea.