Cheltenham Gold Cup - 2019.

[Old Vic]

History shows second season chasers the way to go. There aren’t that many.

[Quevega]

History shows second season chasers the way to go. There aren’t that many.

Correct, unless there's some legends knocking about that's usually the case.
I don't see any legends this year which is why I'm strong on the second season novices this year. It kinda worked out last year also, apart from Native river, who only had one prep.

[evertoncal]

Anyone who is going to back Kemboy needs to think of breeding. Nothing has been made of it but I've had this in my mind for a very long time. His sire Voix Du Nord has never had a winner in a top class race beyond 3 miles. There are a couple of exceptions in Vroum Vroum who won a 3 mile Mares hurdle at Ascot but she beat trees and outclassed them off a fairly slow pace.

You look at his progeny, Vibrato Valtat, Taquin Du Seuil, VVM and such like, and you go through his progeny, it will point you to intermediate trips with their optimum distance being 2m4 to 2m6. They often fail to stay the trip in high class, big field handicaps and if there's pace in top class races they are often found wanting beyond 3 miles especially in top class courses too.

Unique De Cotte was probably the rare horse who finished 2nd in the Pertemps in the UK a few years back and he came from out the back off a slow pace that day, so you get the odd exception but I've seen over the years that his progeny do not get the trip in long distance races and I'd be a huge place layer of Kemboy in the Gold Cup purely down to this fact.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Anyone who is going to back Kemboy needs to think of breeding. Nothing has been made of it but I've had this in my mind for a very long time. His sire Voix Du Nord has never had a winner in a top class race beyond 3 miles. There are a couple of exceptions in Vroum Vroum who won a 3 mile Mares hurdle at Ascot but she beat trees and outclassed them off a fairly slow pace.

You look at his progeny, Vibrato Valtat, Taquin Du Seuil, VVM and such like, and you go through his progeny, it will point you to intermediate trips with their optimum distance being 2m4 to 2m6. They often fail to stay the trip in high class, big field handicaps and if there's pace in top class races they are often found wanting beyond 3 miles especially in top class courses too.

Unique De Cotte was probably the rare horse who finished 2nd in the Pertemps in the UK a few years back and he came from out the back off a slow pace that day, so you get the odd exception but I've seen over the years that his progeny do not get the trip in long distance races and I'd be a huge place layer of Kemboy in the Gold Cup purely down to this fact.

Interesting angle EC.

Great team btw, and welcome to the forum

[Kevloaf]

8/1 NRNB for Kemboy in the Ryanair

Would have a good shot in that race for you everton?

[evertoncal]

I'm not much of a fan of Kemboy, small field bully but you couldn't but be impressed of his Lexus in so you have to take him seriously, just not in a trip beyond 3 miles anyway and I wouldn't back him in a 3 mile race with something who will make it a test.

[charlie]

CDO and Kemboy definitely ones to avoid at the top of the market.

[Scooby91]

CDO and Kemboy definitely ones to avoid at the top of the market.

Any reasoning?

[charlie]

Any reasoning?

King George was rubbish and I don't think Kemboy suits Cheltenham.

[Nortons who]

King George was rubbish and I don't think Kemboy suits Cheltenham.

Interestingly though Kemboy and CDO are the only 2 which currently meet all of the established trends based criteria : age 7-9, OR 166+, won over 3m, won G1 chase, less than 14 chases, ran in Lexis or KG, win during season, ran 2- 5 times during season. Appreciate trends are there to be overturned but GC trends are some of the strongest at the Festival.

[doctorwu]

Savills chase was a complete crawl and not a true 3mile test. Kemboy took the initiative and sprinted clear. Cant have him for this race.
Good luck whoever fancies him.

[charlie]

Interestingly though Kemboy and CDO are the only 2 which currently meet all of the established trends based criteria : age 7-9, OR 166+, won over 3m, won G1 chase, less than 14 chases, ran in Lexis or KG, win during season, ran 2- 5 times during season. Appreciate trends are there to be overturned but GC trends are some of the strongest at the Festival.

Neither interest me. CDO price of 7/1 is almost as laughable as his rating of 173. The King George was rubbish. He beat a game 10 year old in Thistlecrack, a horse that’s not suited by kempton or that ground in Native River, Politilogue who patently doesn’t stay 3m, a Might Bite on the decline and 2 market principals that fell half way round. He is clearly on the up but wouldn’t touch him for this. Kemboy isn’t anyway near consistent enough on the jumping front to be on my mind for a GC.

[bobbyvalentino]

Interestingly though Kemboy and CDO are the only 2 which currently meet all of the established trends based criteria : age 7-9, OR 166+, won over 3m, won G1 chase, less than 14 chases, ran in Lexis or KG, win during season, ran 2- 5 times during season. Appreciate trends are there to be overturned but GC trends are some of the strongest at the Festival.

I can’t have picking/ruling out horses based on those sort of trends at all, lazy punting IMO

If we come up with arguments to explain the trends and see whether or not they apply to the particular horse in question then they can be a useful supplement. For example gold cup is for up and comers having their first shot is well established, it’s a brutal race that can take horses where they don’t want to go again - prime example appears to be Might Bite. Do you have to run in the Lexus or King George, absolutely not

[Innoko]

Can rule out Kemboy as Willie has never won the GC.

So there we have it, CDO Gold Cup winner 2019. Might as well not even run it now.

[ComplyOrDie]

Interestingly though Kemboy and CDO are the only 2 which currently meet all of the established trends based criteria : age 7-9, OR 166+, won over 3m, won G1 chase, less than 14 chases, ran in Lexis or KG, win during season, ran 2- 5 times during season. Appreciate trends are there to be overturned but GC trends are some of the strongest at the Festival.

Maybe so, but they got done last season when a returning Native River went and won it. FWIW I'm all for a good trend/stat to help build me a picture of a race.