J.L.T Novices Chase 2019

[Viking Flagship]

Hey Viking, I've backed CLAIM for the Arkle as I see Henderson shuffling his pack with On The Blind Side going JLT and the mighty Santini going RSA

You could well be correct, but I personally feel he looks like benefitting from a step up in trip and at 33/1 I'm happy to have a pop with the fall back of cash out with B365 if they look like staying the 2m route.

[Quevega]

Surprised Paloma Blue not priced up on oddschecker for this.
breeding suggests trip no problem and if he runs in top 2 mile novices and gets beaten they may step him up.
I've backed him for arkle , but just not sure why he is assumed to be nailed on arkle material.

[BigChaang]

Hey Viking, I've backed CLAIM for the Arkle as I see Henderson shuffling his pack with On The Blind Side going JLT and the mighty Santini going RSA

That's how i would see it too Pitlad.,

[ComplyOrDie]

Hey Viking, I've backed CLAIM for the Arkle as I see Henderson shuffling his pack with On The Blind Side going JLT and the mighty Santini going RSA

I was debating putting something like this across yesterday, doing a trixie with them in as a bet, but sitting on it for now, however it does have some appeal.

[BigChaang]

With Samcro confirmed hurdling, there has been plenty of blue about for horses with leading claims in the novice chases. One I was keen on a while back, Black Op, requires no introduction, however I'm putting the breaks on getting involved after reading this interesting post that Archie shared on 'horses to avoid' this season. The basic issue being that his jumping may not improve enough with the yard he is at (same for Summerville Boy):

https://thefinalflightpublications.co.uk/adam-webbs-national-hunt-horses-to-avoid-2018-2019/

Added to this he may well go up in trip anyway (into a potentially red hot RSA) means the 10/1 still available for this race makes little appeal to me now

I just wonder , if it's More likely Black Op goes here , with no Samcro (ch. hdl ) or Santini (r.s.a ) to face .

[bobbyvalentino]

Vinndication - JLT

It's great to see Kim Bailey throwing together some decent squads again, and this year he certainly seems to have a few sharp ones in the form of Red River (145) and First Flow (144). Kim is reported to have said Vinndication was the best of his novices last year and has gone somewhat under the radar having missed the big spring festivals. The form book to date certainly shows promise in racking up a 4-timer over hurdles, including a neck beating of the well regarded Champ (conceding 6lbs) and then comfortably accounting for Western Ryder in the Sydney Banks. I've seen Western Ryder pop in a quite a few HTFs this year and he obviously put in a decent performance when coming an unlucky 6th in the Supreme. My belief is had Vinndication run in the Ballymore, he would have placed, but I had backed him so that could be wallet-bias.

What interests me most about Vinndication is that his hurdle season was never a priority. Kim described him as a "big baby" last year, and he's an athletic sort that should really improve for going chasing.

You can justifiably raise concerns that his three hurdle races to date were on soft but the breeding suggests he will handle the better ground and he won his bumper on good ground just fine. Indeed until we see racecourse evidence otherwise, I can't mark him down for that.

Regarding target he's been running mainly over mid-range trips and Kim appears inclined to start him off here. Although you can certainly see them stepping up to 3 miles, if the staying novice division is as hot as we are all expecting it to be I think those trainers that have horses with enough speed will be dropping down to the JLT.

Black Op is a fair favourite here on talent alone, but holes can be picked in his armour. You'd be worried about the tendency to clatter an obstacle at crucial moments, which certainly cost him victory against Santini. In my eyes 8/1 is too short for his profile and seems to be more down to a lack of viable opposition at this early stage. Should Samcro be re-routed here, then this might cause me to reconsider somewhat.

On balance, I think the 33/1 available for Vinndication is too generous and I want to get him on-side - he'd likely be half that having run at Cheltenham. You might consider a saver on the RSA (Bet 365 if you have that luxury).

[Scooby91]

Grech & Parkin
@GrechParkin
·
22m
Come on Black Op, me vs you in the
@CheltenhamRaces
JLT Chase at the
@cheltenhamfest
in March?

What do you all think?

#Claimantakinforgan #Bringiton #GrechParkin

[TCH29]

It’s obviously difficult to judge Black Op’s jumping yet. However second to Santini and Samcro over hurdles at Cheltenham up that hill is form enough.

Everyone else in the JLT will be a novice and liable to some novice mistakes. Not sure who else has the combination of cruising speed and stamina that Black Op has, before you even factor in past form at the course. Something else may well come along, but, if nothing special does, Black Op will go off about half the price, so 10s isn’t bad in my book...which it is!

[Innoko]

Grech & Parkin
@GrechParkin
·
22m
Come on Black Op, me vs you in the
@CheltenhamRaces
JLT Chase at the
@cheltenhamfest
in March?

What do you all think?

#Claimantakinforgan #Bringiton #GrechParkin

Total contradiction of the Trainers views today!

[Scooby91]

Total contradiction of the Trainers views today!

To be fair they've been very open all the way through on Twitter. They replied to me a couple of months back when I wasn't sure whether to back any race or jlt. And they were the ones who added him to the jlt market with pp. Before he got cut massively the day after.

[Innoko]

To be fair they've been very open all the way through on Twitter. They replied to me a couple of months back when I wasn't sure whether to back any race or jlt. And they were the ones who added him to the jlt market with pp. Before he got cut massively the day after.

I guess I'll be cashing out at some point then!

What did you make of the debut over fences today? I thought good but unspectacular...

[Scooby91]

[QUOTE=Innoko;78291]I guess I'll be cashing out at some point then!

What did you make of the debut over fences today? I thought good but unspectacular...[/QUOTE

I rate the 2nd, the winner is very good as he is, and he's only going to get better up in trip. I'll be suprised if he isn't a key player come March. Iv always thought he'd turn over black op over fences, time will tell.

[JackieMoon33]

Black Op and Claimantakinforgan are closely matched on hurdles rating so it will be interesting if they cross paths this season. The only thing that could go against Black Op is the age stat as he’ll be 8 at the festival. He doesn’t have many miles on the clock so maybe it’s not going to be an issue.

[Kevloaf]

Most bookies have cut Claimantakinforgan to 16s for the JLT with 25s available with 365.

I'd already backed and now completely agree that drespite winning over 2m today, he'll be a player over further.



Black Ops Ballymore run took a hit today too

[Innoko]

Be interested to see if he turns up for the Arkle trial in a couple of weeks.

Prestige and all that when compared to the JLT.... where have we heard that before