Close Brothers Novice Handicap Chase 2018

[opatcho]

good to hear thx

[Scooby91]

Gordon elliot.
Tycoon Prince goes here.

[Thomas Shelby]

Anyone like the chances of Adrien DuPont in this?

[TCH29]

Having gone through the form is this closely, can anyone explain the following?
- Why does Hendo and his yard prefer Divine Spear to Rather Be? Following form lines the latter appears to be far more "well in".
- How can anyone fancy MWTT over Kalobdra based on form against each other and at Cheltenham?
- Looking at form (and price), why is De Plotting She'd fancied over Barney Dean?
- Is Any Second not potentially open to fourth improvement than both of them?

I think the winner will come from the above, and must say my gut feeling is for Rather Be, especially at the prices. I just can't work out whether it's a ruse by Hendo's camp re Divine Spear.

[Sirbetalot]

Having gone through the form is this closely, can anyone explain the following?
- Why does Hendo and his yard prefer Divine Spear to Rather Be? Following form lines the latter appears to be far more "well in".
- How can anyone fancy MWTT over Kalobdra based on form against each other and at Cheltenham?
- Looking at form (and price), why is De Plotting She'd fancied over Barney Dean?
- Is Any Second not potentially open to fourth improvement than both of them?

I think the winner will come from the above, and must say my gut feeling is for Rather Be, especially at the prices. I just can't work out whether it's a ruse by Hendo's camp re Divine Spear.

Hend did say if he had a charity bet for cheltenham he would but £50 on each Rather Be and Divine Spear, so not much between them I guess, Nico did slightly prefer Divine Spear, but I am like you and sticking with Rather Be...

[Lessey]

Hend did say if he had a charity bet for cheltenham he would but £50 on each Rather Be and Divine Spear, so not much between them I guess, Nico did slightly prefer Divine Spear, but I am like you and sticking with Rather Be...

I wonder if Nico prefers Divine Spear's jumping over Rather Be...? Rather Be was jumping out to his right at times last two runs suggesting Cheltenham wouldn't suit as much but that could of been down to softer going ?

[Viking Flagship]

Having gone through the form is this closely, can anyone explain the following?
- Why does Hendo and his yard prefer Divine Spear to Rather Be? Following form lines the latter appears to be far more "well in".
- How can anyone fancy MWTT over Kalobdra based on form against each other and at Cheltenham?
- Looking at form (and price), why is De Plotting She'd fancied over Barney Dean?
- Is Any Second not potentially open to fourth improvement than both of them?

I think the winner will come from the above, and must say my gut feeling is for Rather Be, especially at the prices. I just can't work out whether it's a ruse by Hendo's camp re Divine Spear.

Some fair points TCH but to play devil's advocate:
- Henderson pair: They've actually been fairly open in saying they like the chances of both of them. I think they see Divine Spear as a more exciting prospect in the longer term so he gets more chat.
- MWTT v Kalondra: 2lb swing plus potential for better ground to suit MWTT. Could also argue that MWTT has been laid out for this since December, whereas you have to forgive a pretty poor showing from Kalondra only last month.
- De Plotting Shed: 7lb in hand against hurdle mark and nothing to suggest he can't be equally as good chaser. Handicapper openly admitted he's one who might have got in a bit lightly. Gordon Elliott factor. I think he's underpriced but can absolutely see why that's happened.
- Any Second Now: Potentially yes, but that said, we "know" De Plotting Shed has 7lb of improvement in the locker, whereas you're taking a chance that Any Second Now will show the improvement. He was fighting for 3rd with Tycoon Prince when that one came down at the last in the race behind Footpad and Petit Mouchoir - Tycoon Prince is 25/1 for this. Maybe TP is over-priced, or maybe ASN is under-priced?

[Scooby91]

Some fair points TCH but to play devil's advocate:
- Henderson pair: They've actually been fairly open in saying they like the chances of both of them. I think they see Divine Spear as a more exciting prospect in the longer term so he gets more chat.
- MWTT v Kalondra: 2lb swing plus potential for better ground to suit MWTT. Could also argue that MWTT has been laid out for this since December, whereas you have to forgive a pretty poor showing from Kalondra only last month.
- De Plotting Shed: 7lb in hand against hurdle mark and nothing to suggest he can't be equally as good chaser. Handicapper openly admitted he's one who might have got in a bit lightly. Gordon Elliott factor. I think he's underpriced but can absolutely see why that's happened.
- Any Second Now: Potentially yes, but that said, we "know" De Plotting Shed has 7lb of improvement in the locker, whereas you're taking a chance that Any Second Now will show the improvement. He was fighting for 3rd with Tycoon Prince when that one came down at the last in the race behind Footpad and Petit Mouchoir - Tycoon Prince is 25/1 for this. Maybe TP is over-priced, or maybe ASN is under-priced?

Tycoon Prince over priced imo.
Iv backed him ew.
Hugely competative race however and it's not one I'll be having a decent sized bet or multiple runners in.

[Viking Flagship]

Tycoon Prince over priced imo.
Iv backed him ew.
Hugely competative race however and it's not one I'll be having a decent sized bet or multiple runners in.

Yeah he's an appealing price Scooby. Do you think he'll appreciate a stiff 2 and a half?

[Scooby91]

Yeah he's an appealing price Scooby. Do you think he'll appreciate a stiff 2 and a half?

Good question. I can't be certain but He caught my eye in regards to trip when staying on behind al boum photo.

I think he's made to jumpa fence and has been very much campaigned with this in mind.

[Quevega]

I think this race can often be a little simpler than you think as it has often contained relatively few irish novices from the top yards.
But this year it looks especially competitive at the top end, the first 6 all have strong credentials. But Henderson and Elliott is where I'd be inclined to focus on as they're probably most reliable these days of getting on ready for the festival.

[jono]

Having looked again at the race tonight I've come down on the following horses:

Kalondra - 15/1 - a good case made by Kev and opatcho and I can't really add much more.

Rather Be - 10/1 - Plenty of shouts already for this one so i'm adding my name to the list. Doesn't look like there is much to split the two Henderson runners and Nico prefers Divine Spear but i'd much prefer Rather Be even at 4pts shorter - Divine Spear - doubts about the course and his ability at this level (only won a class 3) for me . I backed him in the Martin Pipe and he was generally well fancied (5th in the market at 11/1) but went out the race at the start. Made amends at Aintree afterwards proving a big field handicap is no issue getting to a mark of 143 over hurdles. Thrown into open company against the likes of L'ami Serge and The New One in his final race at Sandown and went off 6/1 that day. You can write that run off though. He travelled well but stopped and made a noise. Wind Op followed since in the summer. Both Henderson and McGrath both said at the start of the year that he'd make an even better chaser so i'd expect he's better than 143 over fences and there's improvement to come. McGrath (who rode Gold Present into 2nd last year) will ride and he has built up a good relationship with the horse (3 wins from 5). A couple of negatives are that McGrath noted at the start of the season that he may want a flat track. We can't use the Martin Pipe run but he was only 5.75L's back in the 2016 Bumper though. Also i'd be slightly suspect on the tracks he has been running at this season - Towcester, Plumpton and Fakenham - something i'm never a fan of but he's been and proven himself at the the likes of Cheltenham and Aintree festivals before so nothing overly concerning. The more I look at the horse the more I like him.

Keen to add Barney Dwan as well but i'm holding out for double figures for him if possible. More than happy to leave De Plotting Shed and Movewiththetimes well alone though Any Second Now is the one talking horse in this race that I would have liked onside at bigger prices.

[Middle_Of_March]

I’m a big fan of Any Second Now for this

[charlie]

I’m a big fan of Any Second Now for this

Completely agree

[jono]

I’m a big fan of Any Second Now for this

Imagine Ruby will ride? I'm sure he would have sat on him a fair few times riding out at his Dad's recently