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Again just an opinion, Simply Ned would be a pretty reliable horse and he had a run under his belt so no reason to suspect that he hasnt run to his mark of 158 which would put FN around 170, maybe Special Tiara needed the run, the rating is just an opinion but it looks quite reasonable to assume he has run to 170 to me. I think 7/1 looks fine with a little bit of a question mark against the very short favs participation (who is very very good, i accept)
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Simply Ned was Beaten 17 lengths in Dodging Bullets' Champion Chase, and 9 by Fox Norton in the Schloer... Beaten by a 133 rated horse in Theflyingportrait?
I think Fox Norton is going to have to win the Tingle Creek to remain at single figure odds and I am going to need to see another performance against at least more than one race-fit yardstick before I change my mind....
I have been wrong before of course, I couldn't have Dodging Bullets at all, but in hindsight, I (hope) I learnt that I should trust what is in front of me, and DB ended up putting a great string of wins together in all the key races/trials... now if Fox Norton wins the Tingle Creek, I will absolutely change my stance... because lets face it, the RPR are better than I am, but I want to see it again, i want to test that rating because I think he'll drop again. I did back him for his first race and I didn't have a bet in the race this weekend so it isn't my pocket talking just yet
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Fair enough respect all opinions and welcome all comments, happy to also admit when i get things wrong, which does happen quite frequently. Hopefully Un De Sceaux runs in the tingle creek then we can really see what we are dealing with, even better if Douvan came across!Comment
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I think UDS would be best left over hurdles, he developed some jumping issues but has a tremendous record over timber.
Trouble is the yard have endless 2m options and he's unlikely to get 3m so not sure what they do with him....Comment
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UDS has a good record over timber by avoiding plenty of horses (through no choice of its own obviously). I think is the CC came up soft he'd have a cracking chance...
in fairness as well, the only time over a fence that he has been beaten when completing, is by the now retired, Sprinter Sacre... he should line up in the CC regardless, surely deserves his chance?Comment
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As we keep saying Kevloaf, the yard have Douvan so much depends on what agreements have been made between Mullins' owners and how much influence Ruby has, where the horse should run is probably secondary....Comment
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Oh yeh I agree, if I thought for one minute he'd line up, I'd take 10s each way! The price is clearly factoring in the "will he/won't he though"... might check the 'any race odds' though...
Not quoted... disappointing, I'd like him for that market... possibility of 'soft' would shorten him up if that happened and would have a shout in the CC or Ryanair, if he did go to the festival.
The owner did come out and say the CC is back on the horizon after the news regarding SS...Last edited by Kevloaf; 15 November 2016, 09:27 PM.Comment
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I never actually realised Fox Norton finished third in the Arkle which shows just how little a part he played in the entire race that day! I definitely think he's a different animal and come on leaps and bounds this season though. I can't think of any specific horses right now but sometimes you do get horses who develop slightly later and take a while for it all to click. I remember when he got beat by Garde LaVictoire at the Open meeting a year ago. He jumped superbly and looked the better horse for much of the horse but just faded away at the end so I think there's always been a hint of his ability. Hasn't got a hope in hell of beating Douvan mind!
Now that Sprinter Sacre no longer comes into the equation you'd surely think UDS would come into at least their thoughts. I think the horse has fallen down the pecking order in the yard and is now firmly in the second string camp so I'd see no problem with both him being the second string in the race. Don't think Walsh is too drawn to the horse either. Plus it's easy to forget he was a 4/6 odds on favourite for last years race so yes on face value he certainly deserves his second crack at the race.
The trainer/owners have mentioned about France but I always thought there was a bit of a gap between Cheltenham and the french races so I'd have thought they could take in this race and still be fresh enough for France. After all he ran at both Cheltenham and Sandown and still won his first trip over to France last season.Comment
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When Ruby asked if anything could trouble Douvan on RUK preview he said "yes, but it just retired" ha ha, hope so RubyComment
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Without Douvan, and knowing UDS was being aimed at the race, I would defintiely have UDS as fav. I think both could turn up in the race as Ruby won't mind if he is sat on Douvan, and it could be a 1-2 for the yard.
I don't think 10/1 (each way) is worth waiting for on the smallish chance Douvan doesn't turn up though. For now...Comment
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Fox Norton picked up a knock and will miss the Tingle Creek ... disappointing that he won't get shown up until next year
6/1 
Tongue in cheek of courseComment
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It's a shame as with the tingle creek being such a key trial for the race it would have given us a good gauge of where he stands in the overall field. At Mad to take all the beating? From the little I've heard it's unlikely Douvan comes overComment
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keep him fresh for the spring!!
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UDS will turn up instead of Douvan... 11/4 in a place for that, against Ar Mad... Ar Mad has beaten a couple of stayers or horses that want further (BDM, Bouvreuil, As De Mee, Arzal) and Vaniteux who hasn't actually done anything other than fall when "putting it up" to Douvan..... UDS should be even at absolute worst.
Fox Norton shorter than UDS for the CC? Absolutely insane. Even if UDS doesn't run he has more chance than Fox Norton.
Is the Tingle Creek a confirmed target for UDS, because I want to back up my rash comments and fear I'd only get evens on the day?Comment
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I'd be opposing UDS if he goes to Sandown, jumping an issue and those 7 in the back straight come so quick there's no recovery time, and he gave the Pond Fence a right clout on Whitbread dayComment
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