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Originally posted by Istabraq
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Still only beaten by Sprinter Sacre and SDG was in behind him. -
True kevloaf, but clout one that hard and you're not guaranteed to stay on your feet and he's had jumping issues most of his career, I assume that's why they went back over hurdles with him.
Watch the Sandown tape, I was amazed he didn't go down...Comment
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I think they went back over hurdles because of the ground/opportunities in France rather than a negative regarding his jumping.
If he doesn't fall then I can't see how SDG would get ahead of him, and Ar Mad isn't better than SDG (they're already talking of a step up in trip for Ar Mad) ...
I think 5/2 to jump around Sandown is fine, especially without the pressure of a superstar (SS) in the raceComment
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I wouldn't be so sure Un de Sceaux runs in this. The ground is currently good to soft. There's very little if any rain forecast in the area and there hasn't been a lot of rain recently. I'm sure the course will be doing there upmost to get good-to-soft (soft in places) but I think we may end up with it being good in places. I think he is vulnerable to ground with good in the description.
There’s also 2 other factors that would make me wary of backing UDS - he’s fallen on both his first runs each season over fences. Now he would have won both but I think he’s prone to a mistake when fresh as he can be very keen. Finally it’s best not to judge a horses liking/disliking for a particular track with only 1 run but you definitely couldn’t say he looked to enjoy Sundown last season. He made plenty of mistakes and was never fluent at his obstacles. I know he still came second but he was a huge 15L behind Sprinter then only 1L in front of Dodging Bullets and 7 in front of Sire de Grugy. (they closed the gap from being 23L (DB) & 63L (SDG) behind at Cheltenham). He may well show that is nonsense next time he runs there but it’s something to consider.
If the ground this weekend was soft and UDS had a run already under his belt i’d have sided with him for sure but with all 3 question marks i’m wary of backing him. With this race (CC) in mind i’m hoping Ar Mad wins and makes the 25/1 each way in the race look a steal but in fairness he too has question marks much like the rest of the field. So all in all until I look at the race in depth UDS may still end up the likeliest winner despite all that but there’s plenty against him for me right now.
The sticking point in the race is Douvan of course. here’s the latest this morning:
Hopefully he will be able to run soon. He is entered for both the Tingle Creek and the Hilly Way. Un De Sceaux is also in at Sandown so we’ll see how things work out this week. But I would imagine Douvan would run in one of the two,” said Ireland’s champion trainer.
“The other route to go would be the John Durkan [run at Punchestown on Sunday week] but we have Djakadam for that. If they had different owners they might take each other on. But for now at least I think Douvan will stay at two miles,” Mullins added.
He’s still 3/1 best priced for the Tingle Creek. I’m very tempted to get on at that price as to me it seems most likely.Comment
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Douvan is now a best priced 4/6 for the Tingle Creek... despite no definite participation.
I haven't (and wouldn't) back UDS ante-post because of the ground but at SP if he wasn't fav against Ar Mad, I'd still back him despite all your valid points. I think he is a better horse, and I think jumping is his strength, not something to bash him with.
Probably won't find out now though!Comment
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I did like the RP piece today, saying that the 4/1 Douvan went quickly and bookies were running for cover before settling at 4/6, Mullins said no decision had been made on Douvans next race.
I'd be nothing short of staggered if Douvan didn't land in Esher this weekend....Comment
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Well I wasn't expecting that, last I checked yesterday Douvan was 3/1 for the TC, then he was odds on shortly after and now his price is coming back out to best price 6/4. I still UDS is quite unlikely to turn up but it seems there is still plenty of uncertainty on whether Douvan lines up. A good article from Tony Calvin on the subject:
He suggests there could be another twist to come and the money that came in for Douvan may have been pretty small
I started writing this Betfair Tingle Creek assessment on Monday afternoon and then took a pull for 24 hours after the race was re-opened after attracting eight entries at the five-day stage. Those eight still stand, by the way, after no new runners were added to the race on Tuesday morning.
But one thing that immediately struck me as odd yesterday was why in the hell would some bookmakers have priced up Douvan as big as 5/1 for the race?
In fact, why did they price up the contest at all with running plans for a few of the eight - with possible, additional entries still to come after it had been re-opened - up in the air?
To be fair, some books didn't, though curiously they have now. And I would also add that all bookmaker sponsors - in this case Betfair - are pretty much obliged to price up their own races, come what may. It is simply the "done thing" in the industry, for as much marketing and PR purposes for the racing media, as well as the obvious service to their customers.
However, Douvan was always going to be a big odds-on poke if lining up, so why was he available as big as 5/1?
That meant the layers made him a massive price to run, and that was never the case to judge from all reports on Monday. Yes, there were hints, but they always exist in the ante-post arena, so why take the risk?
And even if the books offered 2/1 about Douvan, let alone 5/1, they were always going to be on red alert, anyway.
Surely the crucial point to make is if you price Douvan up at 5/1 all you are going to get is informed money. Or none at all. Or, if the decision is genuinely still 50-50, then informed trading money.
One rumour or hint of attempted interest in the horse - a bet request on the Exchange, or from certain fixed-odds customers - and his price was always going to go into freefall tout suite.
Because, if lining up on Saturday, there isn't an odds-compiler in the country that wouldn't make Douvan more than a 4/7 poke, even if all his seven rivals stand their ground, which they are far from certain to. He is a top-priced 8/11 for the Champion Chase, after all.
His price duly came crashing in on Tuesday morning, with the sponsor's Sportsbook reporting a "flood of money" for the horse, even after cutting him to 11/10 after the first wave of interest.
At the time of writing (1pm), the last traded price for Douvan on the exchange is 1.54 - it suspended, as per usual, at midday when the final five-day field was being finalised - but nothing seems to have changed in the interim as regards information, or running plans for the now-favourite.
The stable still say there has been no decision about whether he or stablemate Un De Sceaux are intended to line up at Sandown. Or indeed either of the pair, although Un De Sceaux, the market-leader on Tuesday morning, has predictably drifted and is now out to 6/1 in places.
It's a curious situation, so why has it come about?
I am sure a lot of people are reading this and saying "aftertimer" and probably a lot worse, in truth - it's alright being wise after events this morning, they'll cry - but I obviously can't do anything about that. I am writing this now, for the reasons I explained above, so live with it.
But what I can add is that it will not have taken a lot of money at all for the 5/1 and 4/1 industry-wide quotes to disappear, though the betting bandwagon effect will undoubtedly have kicked in afterwards at reduced odds, however accurately or wisely, as the Sportsbook have reported.
I don't think you can over-estimate the degree to which all bookmakers watch the Betfair Exchange market like a hawk.
Yes, some may decry the fact that the markets can be illiquid but you can bet your bottom dollar that every bookmaker in the land, and plenty layers overseas, track them religiously for any hint of movement, either in the day-of-race markets or ante-post.
My guess is that the original Douvan move originated on the Exchange, for whatever reason - and the traded volumes are there for you all to see as to how much money it took - and every bookmaker then took evasive action and immediately slashed the horse. And not due to any significant weight of money.
I could be bang wrong here but I think the opening move on Douvan, from 5/1 and 4/1, was probably borne of very little money industry-wide.
And that was the most important move that triggered the then sustained, wider betting interest in the horse - and possibly totally misplaced - that saw odds-on quotes materialise across the board in under two hours.
However, what I would stress is that things can change very quickly in ante-post markets where trainers have more than one entry - Gary Moore has the well-fancied pair of Ar Mad and Sire De Grugy in here, and he has a decision to make, too - and please bear in mind that you will do your money if your selection doesn't rock up.
And I think this may not be the last dramatic move to play out in a now-fascinating Betfair Tingle Creek market, so keep 'em peeled.Comment
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Douvan NOT declared for the Tingle Creek, UDS runsComment
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Gods own wins
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Its very frustrating with the Douvan thing going on, I was pretty convinced that he wouldnt turn up earlier in the week and was about to have my biggest ew bet of the year on Gods Own at 16/1 3 places, but then the Douvan thing happened and i thought better of it, even though Ricci (who i think will choose his words really carefully this year and as such im happy to believe what hes telling us) had said that Douvan would need a prep to run in the Tingle Creek. Feel a bit deflated by the whole thing really, but for once i dont blame connections of the horse, from what i can see they havent done anything wrong!Comment
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I do think there are 2 sides to this...Feel a bit deflated by the whole thing really, but for once i dont blame connections of the horse, from what i can see they havent done anything wrong!
In the main I feel the same. Where as I feel annoyed about the lack of clarity and communication in Annie Power & Faugheen Hattons Grace (i.e no update on how they both are having both had injuries/setbacks so it's their wellbeing rather than just if they run in x race I want to know) Mullins was pretty clearcut in having a few entries and only deciding at the declaration stage - a stance he's used countless times over the years so it can't be surprising to anyone. Both Willie and Ruby (in his blog this week) said that would be when the decision would be made.
On the other side you have his comments today:
So it would have been nice if whilst he gave his quotes earlier on in the week (29th) ..."It was an easy enough decision to make, it was probably Un De Sceaux all the time as he's used to travelling to France and the UK, while Douvan is only a novice going into Grade One company against horses who are well used to running in Grade Ones," Mullins told At The Races.
"I had him (Douvan) in the race, but unless he was really sparkling I wasn't going to send him and when I worked him he didn't do enough for me for a big test like that, it's early enough in the season.
That "it was probably Un De Sceaux all the time"!!Hopefully he (Douvan) will be able to run soon. He is entered for both the Tingle Creek and the Hilly Way (Cork, December 11th).
"Un De Sceaux is also in at Sandown so we'll see how things work out this week, but I would imagine Douvan would run in one of the two.
But we've been here before with Mullins. Billy you raise a good point about Ricci saying Douvan would need a prep to run in the Tingle Creek. I've said a few times I think the yard may be more open this year after Vautour but maybe it'll be Ricci that is rather than Willie/Ruby.
It does however highlight the sorry state with bookmakers and horse racing. The Tingle Creek betting has been an absolute mess. The same has also happened with the Hattons Grace market with the plunge in price for VVM and NC. Like Tony Calvin's article said - it was very likely tiny amounts of money on Douvan initially and then the bookmakers gave the whole 'flood of money' and 'the right money' to create a plunge on the horse, deceiving the public completely. Billy - you mention God's Own at 16's each way 3 places - when I checked in the week they were only paying 2 places despite having the 8 runners in betting which again is shocking. There's a huge problem right now with people struggling to get even small bets on and when showing any profits in online accounts - getting accounts closed and the events of this week has shown the issue us getting worse and worse. This week has not been good for the sport at all
Saying that anyone that took any odds against on Douvan really have no leg to stand on. I posted 2 days ago about the 3/1 tempting me in, as I was unsure UDS would run so I was thinking of having a bet at those odds as I did there was a chance he could run but I knew there was a high probability he would not run, hence the appealing price. The only reason the odds were enticing was because of the unlikely chance he turns up - if he was always likely to run you'd have been lucky to get near 1/4 with this field. Yes bookmakers skewed the market completely but anyone who jumped on the bandwagon purely for the price collapsing cannot complain.
I also hate this new trend that seems to be coming up more and more where by bookmakers are refunding antepost bets. Some have refunded bets on this, Paddy power refunded bets on Vautour after Matt Chapman raised the issue on On the Line. It's happening quite a bit now but all it is is another PR stunt by the bookmakers, it is in no way a 'win' for the general betting public.Last edited by jono; 1 December 2016, 07:39 PM.Comment
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No love for UDS still?
I think battling back and beating SDG, two time winner and former champion chaser - who was in great form, at his preferred track on ground that wouldn't have been ideal is really good.
Without SS, I don't see how they can not have another go at this race! Sure they won't have Ruby, but as I mentioned a couple of posts back, he has now beaten all of the horses apart from Douvan and Fox Norton in this.
10s is underestimating him. I think it is worth the risk ... I absolutely do not think he'd beat Douvan BUT the each way price and possibility of it being SOFT ground OR Douvan being in the Gold Cup is fair I think.Comment
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UDS jumped well, much better than I expected...Comment
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