Cheltenham 2017 Antepost Bets

[jono]

Not long until THE best bet of Cheltenham 2017* can be placed too...

Josies Orders 3/1 in the Cross Country

*Was the best bet with Nina Carberry onboard - now confidence slightly dampened

I've been saving up a little pot for this antepost bet until these Cheltenham cross country races came about

[Kevloaf]

Thanks Kev - I didn't realise he was on the Verdict. I've got it recorded so will watch it tonight.

Probably best you correct anything I got in the wrong order just in case

[Liam301287]

Bit quiet for me so far not got any at the moment prob start after xmas time. Looking forward to this year see if there any value before new year. Good luck all this year guys.

[cwright23]

The thing I always like to remember is even if one gets beat during the season as long as it turns up it has a chance.. I was on MIN at 50s last season and watching him get backed off the boards all year I couldn't wait to tell anyone who would listen the price I was on at when he was 7/4, but he got beat.. Doesn't matter if he loses at 7/4 or 50/1 it still lost.. Although I had lots of pleasant dreams on a cold winter night about what I would spend my winnings on..
Then even if you back one at 25s that goes off 33s on the day if it wins you won't care one jot.. A winner is a winner.. Although some bets I'm not confident about it's not a dead bet until it doesn't turn uo

[Faugheen_Machine]

Probably best you correct anything I got in the wrong order just in case

As you say Kev, from out of the blue he mentions Robin Roe.

Robin Roe's form is stacking up nicely. The 2nd and 3rd have both won next time out.

[Kevloaf]

FM - Good, I'm on now. Probably be the first man to strike it rich listening to a jockey, especially the main man Ruby, but I'll keep dreaming

I agree with you in the main cwright, however my own strategy means I do find that being on a horse at a bigger price, if it turns up on the day, affords me plenty of options to make as many races as possible profitable. As I mentioned in the WH thread, I'm not shy of backing more than one and if I'd have been on Min at 50s. I am sure I'd have made more than I did on that particular race... so although 'a winner is a winner' is true, getting a nice ante post price (in my mind) gives me more bullets to nail that winner

[Kevloaf]

Altior winning would more than cover all of your (faugheen & jono) ante post bets so far. Great position to be in... in my opinion at least!

I've loaded up my spread sheet and got 201 pts staked. Done a few more 'each way' singles that I ever have before which accounrs for plenty. (Will assess after the festival if that has worked or not) and got 61 pts in doubles/trebles/yankees.

Obviously not going to post all 201 pts worth because no-one will care however:

Start with the Non Runners...
Barters Hill - Any race / RSA 8 pts @ 14's-25s
Vautour - Any Race - 5 pts @ 7/2
Sprinter Sacre - CC 2.5 pts EW @ 5/1

That is actually all of them so not bad in hindsight, however, a pretty gross two week period - A bit embarrassed about the SS bet, but on the day I'd have been looking at either the defending champ as an each way shot to nothing against Douvan or without Douvan a lovely spot?.... was more a heart ruling the head moment when I placed it I think!

Forgot to add this absolute crash of a bet... Apples Jade - Champion Hurdle 3 pts EW

So 24 pts lost to the bookies so far

Biggest shorteners
Cameila De Cotte - Mares Novice 1 pt EW @ 33/1
UKWIMH - World Hurdle 1 pt EW @ 25/1
Thistlecrack - Gold Cup 5 pts @ 8/1
Jenkins - Supreme 1 pt EW @ 20/1
Faugheen - World Hurdle 1 pt @ 10/1

No other real steamers in the market that I've got in singles at the moment... Melon I guess, on at 20 and in to 14 without running is potentially good ... Limini @ 10s in the mares hurdle shortened a bit. Invitiation Only @ 16s Neptune and 10s any race...

Some of the ones I like
Altior - Arkle 8.5 pts @ 5/1
Vroum Vroum Mag - Any Race 8 pts @ 11/4
Annie Power - Any Race 4 pts @ 5/2
Death Duty - Any Race 1 pt @ 14/1
Rawnaq - World Hurdle 2 pts EW @ 33/1

Explored the ANy Race market more than ever before and happy with the prices on VVM and DD for sure! Altior is (just about) my biggest single stake but he is in a few multiples too...


"Exciting" multiples
Annie (CH) / Douvan (CC) / Faugheen (WH) 1 pt @ 99/1
Altior(Arkle)/Douvan 4 pts at 11/1
Min/Yorkhill(JLT) - 1.5 pts EW @ 61/1
Altior/Douvan/Yorkhill(JLT) - 1 pt @ 83/1
Altior/Yorkhill - 1.5 pts EW @ 43/1

Don't expect Faugheen in the WH but if things played out that way I'd be excited... A big win for Altior would be great on the first day but having the double with Douvan would get me very excited... waiting on that with a likely odds on shot would be brilliant! (no where near that price the double now)
Yorkhill not going chasing, and not going for the JLT will kill off a few, but as that is still a possibility, I'll keep it as "exciting"...

[Aldie1988]

Like a lot of those Kev, Refreshing to see that I've backed quite a few of those myself.

Fingers crossed the cards fall right mate!

The next 4-5 weeks gonna be a market maker or breaker for a lot of peoples value bets!

Anybody got any good looking trixies or yankees at the current odds?

[billymag]

Your braver than me kev!!! I keep 100% accurate records on spreadsheets but havent dared do the total column yet!!!!! Maybe in Feb!!

[Kevloaf]

Haha, thanks guys. I know a lot will go wrong before then, but if I can come out of the week with as many pts as I had on ante-post, it'll feel like a huge win even if I break even... that combined with the pure love and enjoyment from watching it too is keeping it ''justified' at the moment. Obviously crippling losses could affect my methods in years to come but it is all a learning curve!

Get it totted up Billy... what harm can it do *gulp* ... I have never ever had more ante post on that I'd stake at the festival "on the day" but I can't imagine that will be the case this year. Certainly feel I'd struggle to be 'up' anyway

[jono]

Nice bets there Kev. I have to admit I was looking forward to seeing yours - a lot to like in there.

So if Jenkins wins the Supreme, then Altior wins the Arkle we'll all be in flying!

(...then probably have our accounts closed!!)

I'm yet to place any multiples/yankees/trixies bar the few doubles mentioned - I generally try and place them around or after Christmas time when things are often a little clearer regarding targets and potential opposition myself. Also keen on doing lucky15's with the triple bonus for a winner.

In terms of placing the bets - what's everyones preferred method? Online? In Shops? Different for singles vs multi's? Luckily i'm ok with most bookies bar Ladbrokes who I can no longer get a penny on. I'm always slighty worried IF I was to have a really good year antepost wise as good as it'll be I may struggle to get on bets online. Tempted to start placing some in shops when I can.

[Kevloaf]

I'm going through the card on the Tuesday:
Jenkins, Altior, Holywell, Annie Power, Vroum Vroum Mag, Champers On Ice, Thompas Crapper

I haven't ever done trixie's or lucky 15s on Cheltenham before, certainly not ante post HOWEVER I started using them on the flat this season and I've had some really nice wins that have helped me pile so much in to Cheltenham so that IS going to change. I will also be waiting until targets become clear though before having anything other than 'speculative guesswork' multiples on...

In terms of placing bets, I am just online and I think the amount I am placing ante post will flag me as a mug punter so I'm not too worried yet. From what I gather the amount of money ante post doesn't affect anywhere near as much as people trying to place bets the night before when markets first go up and so on...?

[Faugheen_Machine]

Some great bets Kev - it looks like we are all thinking along the same lines on the Tuesday.

Most of my bets are done online and I also think my scattergun approach to multiples and festival races in general helps keep some of my accounts open.

In terms of Trixie's, Yankees etc. I do these for Cheltenham from an early stage. My approach is to try and combine Saturday horses with Cheltenham horses. It's worked well in the past so I kind of stick to what works.

I never do lucky 15's because the singles at pretty worthless on their own, I'd rather increase my stake and place a yankee instead.

[Kevloaf]

Do you mean back a horse for the weekend in with an ante part cheltenham horse?

[Faugheen_Machine]

Yeah, I do one most weekends. I had a right lift a couple of years ago - had the autumn double in a treble with Faugheen in his champion hurdle year.

Its hard to place a Cheltenham ante post yankee this far in advance and have them all turn up on the day. Anything I fancy at the weekend generally gets put in some sort of multiple with a horse or two for Cheltenham.