General Chat

[Lobos]

Agree re FF. Mullins quoted as saying might start off in Morgianna with Anzadam and unlikely TNL be risked on quickish ground

 

[Joeski29]

Anyone got a view on Elliott declaring 2 horses at the top of the betting for races and consistently pulling one out on the day ?
Couple of races tomorrow where I suspect he will pull one out
Question is what is the advantage of doing that ?
Is the deduction paying better than the revised prices ?

With Nolimit a non runner in the bumper, one of those races with 2 of Elliott’s at the head of the betting

 

[Liammet]

With Nolimit a non runner in the bumper, one of those races with 2 of Elliott’s at the head of the betting

Yeah I could see that coming
Suggested backing the 2 of them yesterday
Money back as a non runner and better price on the other one
Surely gets pulled for it at some stage,blatantly obvious

 

[Eggs]

…Olly Murphy SL added to Stable Tour thread.

 

[knockando]

Mister Pessimistic entered in a 2m maiden hurdle next week. One on my radar. Anyone fancy requesting a price for the Supreme/Turners

Thoughts? Did it well enough I thought. Can’t see him quoted anywhere after it still

 

[Yosser]

Thoughts? Did it well enough I thought. Can’t see him quoted anywhere after it still

I haven't seen it yet knockando. I am in and out of consciousness on the couch after the heavy alcohol session yesterday. Bloody glad i don't do that often. Will have some chip butties later and try and come round a bit then i can watch it Was it a Supreme looking performance? I know that could be difficult to gauge first time up but the competition looks thin on the ground. I left Soomaroy and Kalypsochance alone because i never thought they had a chance anyway so now it looks like we are waiting for El Cairos for Gordy and whatever Willie throws out. Windbeneathmywings will need 2 quick runs after Christmas probably if good enough in the first place. Fire Warning has only arrived late and is 4yo, i don't think we will see him before Cheltenham unless he has one run and blows the opposition away.

Anybody have any definitive info on Davy Crockett? injury wise, or if he even is injured etc. I wasn't going to back him but he has a frightening pedigree and i am struggling to see a runner for JP.

I know i shouldn't, but i am also waiting to see if Quantum Boy comes back from an interrupted season and shows the ability he did in his point. I know it's a big ask but Willie has kept hold of him so be interested to see where he pitches up and how he does.

 

[BuckingThe Trend]

I haven't seen it yet knockando. I am in and out of consciousness on the couch after the heavy alcohol session yesterday. Bloody glad i don't do that often. Will have some chip butties later and try and come round a bit then i can watch it Was it a Supreme looking performance? I know that could be difficult to gauge first time up but the competition looks thin on the ground. I left Soomaroy and Kalypsochance alone because i never thought they had a chance anyway so now it looks like we are waiting for El Cairos for Gordy and whatever Willie throws out. Windbeneathmywings will need 2 quick runs after Christmas probably if good enough in the first place. Fire Warning has only arrived late and is 4yo, i don't think we will see him before Cheltenham unless he has one run and blows the opposition away.

Anybody have any definitive info on Davy Crockett? injury wise, or if he even is injured etc. I wasn't going to back him but he has a frightening pedigree and i am struggling to see a runner for JP.

I know i shouldn't, but i am also waiting to see if Quantum Boy comes back from an interrupted season and shows the ability he did in his point. I know it's a big ask but Willie has kept hold of him so be interested to see where he pitches up and how he does.

i am struggling to see a runner for JP...........look no further than Love Me Tender.....

 

[Yosser]

i am struggling to see a runner for JP...........look no further than Love Me Tender.....

I have him covered but Willie says he wants a trip doesn't he?

 

[BigChaang]

I haven't seen it yet knockando. I am in and out of consciousness on the couch after the heavy alcohol session yesterday. Bloody glad i don't do that often. Will have some chip butties later and try and come round a bit then i can watch it Was it a Supreme looking performance? I know that could be difficult to gauge first time up but the competition looks thin on the ground. I left Soomaroy and Kalypsochance alone because i never thought they had a chance anyway so now it looks like we are waiting for El Cairos for Gordy and whatever Willie throws out. Windbeneathmywings will need 2 quick runs after Christmas probably if good enough in the first place. Fire Warning has only arrived late and is 4yo, i don't think we will see him before Cheltenham unless he has one run and blows the opposition away.

Anybody have any definitive info on Davy Crockett? injury wise, or if he even is injured etc. I wasn't going to back him but he has a frightening pedigree and i am struggling to see a runner for JP.

I know i shouldn't, but i am also waiting to see if Quantum Boy comes back from an interrupted season and shows the ability he did in his point. I know it's a big ask but Willie has kept hold of him so be interested to see where he pitches up and how he does.

Pretty sure that on willie's stable tour , ( one of them ).. he said Davy Crockett being kept off the winter ground .. back in the spring ??.

 

[BuckingThe Trend]

In terms of favourites for March I have the following as my top 5 and as a result are forming the cornerstone/foundation of most of my Festival Acca's right now. Anyone believe I have missed one ? Maybe Inothewayurthinkin could steal in there instead of Bambino Fever but went for BF as she has less viable opposition.

Kopek Des Bordes (Arkle)
Final Demand (BANC)
Bambino Fever (MNH)
Lossiemouth (Mares Hurdle)
Fact To File (Ryanair)

 

[Lobos]

In terms of favourites for March I have the following as my top 5 and as a result are forming the cornerstone/foundation of most of my Festival Acca's right now. Anyone believe I have missed one ? Maybe Inothewaturthinkin could steal in there instead of Bambino Fever but went for BF as she has less viable opposition.

Kopek Des Bordes (Arkle)
Final Demand (BANC)
Bambino Fever (MNH)
Lossiemouth (Mares Hurdle)
Fact To File (Ryanair)

That's the Bookies top 5 and probably most of ours. Not sure how much money they'd have taken for those to be so short though .Very little I expect. They are just going by last year's form as we are. Not even sure If they'll end up in the above races. If two of those win those races we'll be lucky.

 

[Istabraq]

In terms of favourites for March I have the following as my top 5 and as a result are forming the cornerstone/foundation of most of my Festival Acca's right now. Anyone believe I have missed one ? Maybe Inothewaturthinkin could steal in there instead of Bambino Fever but went for BF as she has less viable opposition.

Kopek Des Bordes (Arkle)
Final Demand (BANC)
Bambino Fever (MNH)
Lossiemouth (Mares Hurdle)
Fact To File (Ryanair)

Mullins in for another decent week then...

 

[Benjy23]

Wouldn't have;

Final Demand (BANC)
Bambino Fever (MNH)

Simply because historically they aren't races I'd be looking for 'cornerstones' in at this point.

But agree with being very keen on the other three. I'd probably be happy with that treble and no other winners all week to be honest.

 

[EnvoiAlien]

Lossiemouth is the only banker of the week, in the mares of course, couldn't have a novice chaser I've yet to see jump a fence on my mind if I was looking for festival cornerstones.

 

[BuckingThe Trend]

Lossiemouth is the only banker of the week, in the mares of course, couldn't have a novice chaser I've yet to see jump a fence on my mind if I was looking for festival cornerstones.

That might highlight where I have been going wrong all these years !

 

[EnvoiAlien]

I used to love getting stuck into those novice chasers, now I'd love to say I wait until I see them jump one in public, I really would love to say that, but I'd be lying...I do them as singles now though so if they can't jump at least they're not dragging another bet into the bin with them

Edit - just checked,have 7 in the Arkle (3 confirmed to not be chasing this season) & 5 in the RSA ( 1 confirmed to not be chasing this season), so far I've seen one over a fence this season ffs.

 

[riccirich]

In terms of favourites for March I have the following as my top 5 and as a result are forming the cornerstone/foundation of most of my Festival Acca's right now. Anyone believe I have missed one ? Maybe Inothewayurthinkin could steal in there instead of Bambino Fever but went for BF as she has less viable opposition.

Kopek Des Bordes (Arkle)
Final Demand (BANC)
Bambino Fever (MNH)
Lossiemouth (Mares Hurdle)
Fact To File (Ryanair)

I'd personally never have lossiemouth in the mares as a cornerstone of my betting, and to a lesser extent fact to file.

You'd favour the mares for her at this point, but if state man shows signs of decline then all of a sudden she could become mullins and townends best chance in the champion hurdle. He already showed signs of decline last season before the headgear seemingly revitalised him. Given that he's two years older than lossie, it will happen sooner or later. Anzadam could emerge to take state man's place in that scenario but at the moment he's just potential, the other two are the only ones proven.

Fact to file similar scenario. Just because Allaho's owners who were pretty hands off and happy enough to go along with mullins and keep going back to the Ryanair, doesnt mean mcmanus will. They were scared of galopin last season, but he has now shown signs of vulnerability, especially on quicker ground, which would also be Fact to files favoured conditions over the gold cup distance. As long as inothewayurthinkin is in good form and shows that the gold cup wasn't just a one off that he won't replicate, your probably safe. But if he doesn't, then I doubt they'd be as afraid of another year older galopin this time.

 

[BuckingThe Trend]

I'd personally never have lossiemouth in the mares as a cornerstone of my betting, and to a lesser extent fact to file.

You'd favour the mares for her at this point, but if state man shows signs of decline then all of a sudden she could become mullins and townends best chance in the champion hurdle. He already showed signs of decline last season before the headgear seemingly revitalised him. Given that he's two years older than lossie, it will happen sooner or later. Anzadam could emerge to take state man's place in that scenario but at the moment he's just potential, the other two are the only ones proven.

Fact to file similar scenario. Just because Allaho's owners who were pretty hands off and happy enough to go along with mullins and keep going back to the Ryanair, doesnt mean mcmanus will. They were scared of galopin last season, but he has now shown signs of vulnerability, especially on quicker ground, which would also be Fact to files favoured conditions over the gold cup distance. As long as inothewayurthinkin is in good form and shows that the gold cup wasn't just a one off that he won't replicate, your probably safe. But if he doesn't, then I doubt they'd be as afraid of another year older galopin this time.

As my old Economics teacher used to quote "Profit is payment for Risk"............We all read the markets differently. To be honest I see minimal risk regarding Lossiemouth going Mares no matter what happens to State Man and I just can't see Willie walking away from the Ryanair with F2F given how commanding he was last year over course and distance plus he has Galopin Des Champs, Gaelic Warrior and Lecky Watson for the Gold Cup and JP also has Inothewayurthinkin. Plus ref F2F it would appear Willie is swerving the King George so maybe not at all sure he will get 3m+. But you may well be right...............and that's why we love Ante Post betting. One day Rodney, one day.

 

[riccirich]

As my old Economics teacher used to quote "Profit is payment for Risk"............We all read the markets differently. To be honest I see minimal risk regarding Lossiemouth going Mares no matter what happens to State Man and I just can't see Willie walking away from the Ryanair with F2F given how commanding he was last year over course and distance plus he has Galopin Des Champs, Gaelic Warrior and Lecky Watson for the Gold Cup and JP also has Inothewayurthinkin. Plus ref F2F it would appear Willie is swerving the King George so maybe not at all sure he will get 3m+. But you may well be right...............and that's why we love Ante Post betting. One day Rodney, one day.

I'd be less worried about fact to file, although I still wouldn't back him. But lossiemouth is just fraught with danger and no value at 9/4 imo.

She was mooted for the champion hurdle until her poor showing at Xmas last year, and even after that until falling at leopardstown. If she runs in either of those races this season (most likely won't go to kempton again) but goes to leopardstown and beats state man let's say, there's a strong chance she goes fave for the champion hurdle, which would be a much different situation to last year and would probably go for it as townends ride imo. And even if none of that happens and you come out on the right side of mullins bingo, she then still has to beat wodhooh on a different course than she won on last year. A horse who she only bested by less than 3l at Aintree, who hacked up in the pipe over course and distance, and who is a year younger and possibly has more improvement in her than lossie. When you take all that into consideration, there are far better bets at 9/4 imo.

Fact to file as I say I'd be less worried about, as I think his chances of running in the gold cup are smaller than lossies chances of running in the champion. And also if he does run in the Ryanair, there's not much I'd be overly worried about in his likely opposition, unlike with lossie. But I don't think it matters what else Willie has for the race as I don't think jp cares about that, it'll just come down to whether Inothewayurthinkin is going well enough at the time to be his gold cup horse. I also wouldn't take fact to file not going to the King george as them thinking he doesn't stay 3m, I'd just take it as gaelic warrior not liking leopardstown so they have to find something else for him, and jp I'd say is happy enough to see how they stack up now against an older galopin.

Having said all that, you may well also be right

 

[Killiney]

Pretty sure that on willie's stable tour , ( one of them ).. he said Davy Crockett being kept off the winter ground .. back in the spring ??.

I am also watching this space where Dave Crockett is concerned as it is confusing. There was a message on here I think that he had a setback. Then in a stable tour there was the suggestion that after a busy spell he was having a quiet spell before a spring campaign. It would be good to get clarity on this one time fav for the Supreme!