Your best and worst current betting race for the 2019 festival

[Middle_Of_March]

By that I mean, the races you are in the best and worst position in with regards to prices/staking etc.

For me, I’m in an excellent position I’d say in two races and in a poor position in 2.

Best would be RSA and Arkle.

Worst would be Champion Hurdle and Gold Cup.

Surprisingly, this isn’t the first time at this stage in the season the novice chases are looking like my best races betting wise antepost.


Arkle - Mengli Khan 20/1 e/w, Kalashnikov 17/2 and 8/1 (any race) and 7/1 for this outright
RSA - Next Destination 10/1, Santini 10/1, Delta Work 16/1 e/w (any race), Cracking Smart 14/1 (any race)
Champion Hurdle - Samcro 9/2, If The Cap Fits 33/1 e/w and half a point on Laurina at 10/1
Gold Cup - Might Bite at numerous prices and half a point on Balko Des Flos at 40/1 e/w


What races are looking particularly pleasant/nasty for the rest of you?

 

[Scooby91]

My best would be every race iv a bet in. Supremely confident in all selections. (Bar chacun pour soi arkle)

Worst possibly champion hurdle as I should be on buveur dair but haven't had a bet on it at all. . Just can't see an ew bet in it atm. Will be far more value on the day. Or poss when nrnb comes in and a couple more trials.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

My best would be every race iv a bet in. Supremely confident in all selections. (Bar chacun pour soi arkle)

Worst possibly champion hurdle as I should be on buveur dair but haven't had a bet on it at all. . Just can't see an ew bet in it atm. Will be far more value on the day. Or poss when nrnb comes in and a couple more trials.

How do you follow that? :highly_amused:

Best for me is the RSA with Santini, Delta Work and Top of the Game backed at big prices.

I don't have a particularly bad race at this stage but plenty of time for that to change.

 

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

How do you follow that? :highly_amused:

Best for me is the RSA with Santini, Delta Work and Top of the Game backed at big prices.

I don't have a particularly bad race at this stage but plenty of time for that to change.

Haha....indeed! Same position as you in the RSA. My search to have the field covered in the Arkle with the use of lots of free bets is turning into an interesting ‘experiment’. To be fair I was reasonably happy with my position before Lalor’s flop at the weekend, but if somebody offered me a return that covered my total outlay including all free bets I’d happily take it at this stage

 

[Innoko]

My best would be every race iv a bet in. Supremely confident in all selections. (Bar chacun pour soi arkle)

Worst possibly champion hurdle as I should be on buveur dair but haven't had a bet on it at all. . Just can't see an ew bet in it atm. Will be far more value on the day. Or poss when nrnb comes in and a couple more trials.

I'm the same except for the Champion Hurdle part. As I'm in a great position with that also.

So there. :highly_amused:

 

[Middle_Of_March]

How do you follow that? :highly_amused:

Best for me is the RSA with Santini, Delta Work and Top of the Game backed at big prices.

I don't have a particularly bad race at this stage but plenty of time for that to change.

Next Destination is one to have onside I think for the rsa. Should’ve been in the AB last year. As proven when flying home for third behind Samcro

 

[Can't Catch Me]

Im almost as happy as scooby with my position so far!

Early days but wouldn't change much as of now. Like Innoko Ive even got a few quid on BD at 9/2 in the Fighting Fifth double.

My fav race is probably the Arkle with Lalor at 33/1, Mengli Khan at 25/1 and 20/1 and Cilaos Emery at 28/1. Feel like only Kalashnikov can do me and got them all e/w.

Just got to keep everything crossed they all stay fit and healthy.

 

[Kevloaf]

Worst...

Arkle - Worst would perhaps be this one, as I had Laurina and Melon as speculative non runners and Draconien is 'accounted for' in this section of my spreadsheet as it looked his most likely target. I also don't have anything more than free bets on Kalshnikov who is the ante-post fav currently. I do have big each way prices on the rest of the market though, still expecting a healthy profit!

Champion Hurdle - Not that bad, as Buveur D'air is in 8 multiples for me, but as a single I haven't backed him. Can cash out Laurina and be in profit though so I'm not worried.

Mares Novice - Not got the current fav backed, Epatante (although not too bothered at the moment - plenty to come out)


Best ...

Bumper - Got lucky after missing the price on the fav MAlone Road who then got injured, leaving me to cash out for a profit the stablemate Envoi Allen, so I'm now in profit with live bets on Mt Leinster, Energunmue, El Barra, Shadow Rider, Asterion Forlonge - all with cashout options.

Gold Cup - Have the 5/1 fav at 40/1 and am well on the way to having this as a green book.


Excluding handicaps, I have the ante post fav at a bigger price/same price in 13 of the 20 races - which I'd consider good at this stage. Some are joint favs and things that I can't be bothered to go in to.

 

[billymag]

Got a few non runners now, Arkle worst race Draconian was a blow but that's antepost betting and had a few quid on Claimintakingforgan for same race. Need Cilaos Emery to come out and rescue the situation for me!

Im hoping the best race is the JLT got Samcro at 16/1 and haven't given up on them having a change of heart with him, if they switch he will be very short for the JLT but if they don't then that will probably become my worst race!!! lol

 

[bobbyvalentino]

What I’m liking:

Arkle Kalashnikov @14/1, Mengli Khan @20/1, Getabird @25/1, Lalor @33/1, Cilaos Emery @28/1
Supreme Annamix @20/1 [because actually Samcro was a false prophecy and this is the second coming], Quick Grabim @50/1, Tornado Flyer @25/1
RSA Santini @14/1, Topofthegame @28/1, Delta Work @18/1

What I’m not liking:

Champion Hurdle Samcro @8/1, Laurina @14/1
Mares Novice Chante Neige @12/1 [shite race anyway]
NHC Bacardys @33/1, Blow by Blow @18/1

 

[robith]

Errr, none really? Looking at the sheet I'd say I've backed about 10 horses in about 6 races, but then I'm not one for trying to build a whole book, but beating SP on the one I like

 

[archie]

Easy for me as I've only had 3 bets.

Probably the best is Delta Work (ew in any race at a boosted 17.52/1) because it's the only one with actual money.

I also had a free tenner from Betfair that I split between Adjali (33/1 and close to being best bet) and Never Adapt (25/1 and automatically the worst) for the Triumph.

 

[BigChaang]

Easy for me as I've only had 3 bets.

Probably the best is Delta Work (ew in any race at a boosted 17.52/1) because it's the only one with actual money.

I also had a free tenner from Betfair that I split between Adjali (33/1 and close to being best bet) and Never Adapt (25/1 and automatically the worst) for the Triumph.

If only it was that Simple (for me ) Archie !!:highly_amused:, I am the complete opposite of you in that ,
I now have about 40 singles and 100 multi's racked and stacked !!.

 

[charlie]

Best:

Arkle: Mengli Khan@20/1, Lalor@33/1, Cilaos Emery @ 25/1 (any race), Defi Du Seuil @ 20/1(any race)
RSA: Santini @12/1 (any race), Delta Work @18/1 (any race)
NHC: Blow by Blow @ 33/1 & 25/1 & 14/1 (any race)
Gold Cup: Belshill @ 90’s, RTR @ 44’s, Presenting Percy @ 9’s
XC: Tiger Roll @ 5/1 (any race), 4/1

Worst

Champion Hurdle - Summerville Boy and Samcro not looking good.
Bumper - Envoi Allen isn't going to Cheltenham
Supreme - Danny Kirwan probably going 2m5f

 

[Brital]

Best:

Arkle: Mengli Khan@20/1, Lalor@33/1, Cilaos Emery @ 25/1 (any race), Defi Du Seuil @ 20/1(any race)
RSA: Santini @12/1 (any race), Delta Work @18/1 (any race)
NHC: Blow by Blow @ 33/1 & 25/1 & 14/1 (any race)
Gold Cup: Belshill @ 90’s, RTR @ 44’s, Presenting Percy @ 9’s
XC: Tiger Roll @ 5/1 (any race), 4/1

Worst

Champion Hurdle - Summerville Boy and Samcro not looking good.
Bumper - Envoi Allen isn't going to Cheltenham
Supreme - Danny Kirwan probably going 2m5f

That’s nice prices you’ve got for Bellshill & RTR. Hope one of them comes in for you.

 

[Hurricane fly]

I’ve been playing around with different scenarios on my spreadsheet and think I’m in the best place with

Supreme:
Annamix - in singles at 10/11/12s but in multi day 20s and 16
Eldorado Allen - singles at 20/25 and multi at 33s
Quick Grabhim - single at 50s
Didtheyleaveuoutto- any race 20
Tornado Flyer - any race 12s(unlikely but possible)

Stayers:
Penhill - singles at 6/1, multis at 7/8s
Cracking Smart - single at 33/1
Sam spinner - e/w at 33/1

Worst is probably the Champion Hurdle
BDA - 1.5U at 7/2 - also in a treble at 3/1
Samcro - 2U at 8/1
Labaik - 1.5U at 33/1
Ifthecapfits - 0.5U at 33/1 but in quite a few multis at 33/1
Summerville Boy - in multi at 16/1

BDA winning will put me in the red unless the treble comes in.

At the moment as long as Penhill and Annamix come in I’ll be in profit 20U.

Mind you I have some absolutely ludicrous prices on the exchange for the Gold Cup so if it ends up being a Lord Windermere type year that alone could pay for my outlay and a tidy profit!

And more importantly I’m confident that blindly following Scooby will lead me to a big profit in the Troumph

 

[charlie]

That’s nice prices you’ve got for Bellshill & RTR. Hope one of them comes in for you.

Cheers pal, hopefully makes up for some of the money I lost on Bellshill and RTR last year

 

[Leman14]

In a good position on all races, as thus far, I have not use any cash
That said, some races look much better than others:

Arkle
Mengli Khan @ 25/1
Cilaos Emery @ 20/1
Lalor @ 33/1
Kalashnikov (Any) @ 5/1

Champion Hurdle
Buveur D'air @ 7/2
Summerville Boy @ 16/1
Melon @ 8/1
Samcro (Any) @ 5/2
Laurina @ 12/1 (Small Amount)
Labaik @ 33/1 (Small Amount)

National Hunt Chase
OK Corral @ 28/1
Bacardys (?) @ 25/1
Blow By Blow (Any) @ 16/1
Jerrysback (Any) @ 20/1
Kilbricken Storm (Any) @ 12/1

RSA
Topofthegame @ 16/1
Santini (Any) @ 12/1
Delta Work (Any) @ 20/1

Varying amount of Free Bets used - depending on the price and potential returns.