Where will they go ?

[Odin]

I was just joking mate, Personally, I would love to see them go Champion Chase then Gold Cup. Anything after would be largely irrelevant because he would by then be a Hall of Famer.

Yeah so was I (throughout)

Bringing us back to reality, I see no reason why CH can't go Supreme, Churdle, Arkle, CChase, Gold Cup. I'd love to see him go the CChase route this year, but there's no need for him to imo. I understand the age side of things but for freaks like him I tend to ignore that. Yes mother nature will catch up with him at some point, but if he's the undisputed undefeated 2miler across 4 seasons (yes, getting ahead of myself there) would that not still make him the greatest ever 2miler?

If he didn't end up in the Gold Cup for whatever reason, it wouldn't tarnish his legacy for me. It's like saying Frankel's not the greatest of the 2000s because he didn't win the Derby or the Arc. Sea The Stars did and noone talks about him like Frankel.

 

[Ice]

….16-1 Ladbroke specials.

All aboard the cheltenham and royal ascot gold cup double ! :biggrin-new:

 

[archie]

….would he never have ‘jumped a fence’ at home, Archie?

I wouldn't know but he certainly won't have been over one in a long time. No way would they disrupt a hurdling campaign with schooling over fences.

They might give him a quick school before they send him out to grass for the summer but it's more likely that no serious jumping will be done until he is back in training and ready to do fast work.

 

[Kevloaf]

If he didn't end up in the Gold Cup for whatever reason, it wouldn't tarnish his legacy for me. It's like saying Frankel's not the greatest of the 2000s because he didn't win the Derby or the Arc. Sea The Stars did and noone talks about him like Frankel.

People definitely do talk about Sea The Stars like Frankel.

They're wrong...... but they do :highly_amused:


The debate between excelling at a specific set of circumstances versus being great over various is the underlying factor that different people are looking for.


If CH won 4x CH's and was rated the highest ever hurdler, some would still say it was a wasted opportunity to see what he could do... and on the flip side, if he does go chasing and never puts in a higher CH performance, people will think he's not the best two mile hurdler of all time, which he 'could have been'.


My personal opinion right now is that I'd like to see him doing something different. I think I'd prefer that to him racking up 3 CH's, by the time he went for a 4th maybe I'd feel different. I don't feel that strongly either way now I've sat down and starting typing about it.

 

[HesTheOne]

I wouldn't know but he certainly won't have been over one in a long time. No way would they disrupt a hurdling campaign with schooling over fences.

They might give him a quick school before they send him out to grass for the summer but it's more likely that no serious jumping will be done until he is back in training and ready to do fast work.

For what its worth - Nico said on ITV Racing pod he'll jump 5 fences in private at the end of season similar to what they did with Altior and that will tell them there and then if its a yay or nay
When asked where he would like him to go or have a bet he didn't mention much but referred to Coneygree as the last novice to win a champion race

Barry G speaking Off The Fence said he schooled well in his P2P days and should be no reason he wont take too them now he's older

 

[Many Clouds]

Iv had a punt on the Champion Chase at 12s with Hills.

Think it's worth the risk myself as we know with how the bookies cut odds all he has to do is walk round one weak chase race over 2 miles and odds will fly in.

After what's been said by the owner about going for the Gold Cup eventually, don't think they are going to stay over hurdles to win 3/4 champ hurdles against zero competition with everyone running scared and will be the same with going to the Arkle, I think they will feel its a bit of a waste if he's as good a chaser as hurdler to not take in the Champion Chase and then go for Gold the following year stepping him up in trip after Cheltenham 24 onwards.

Doesn't feel like the Turners will appeal either, when they feel like they have a once in a lifetime horse and can go Supreme, Champ Hurdle, Champ Chase, Gold Cup.

Could easily be wrong but at 12/1 not going to be too upset if I am and more than likely have plenty of opportunity to lay the stake off at low odds on the exchange during the season before a decision is made on Arkle/Champ Chase.
​​​​​

 

[Bollinger]

Yeah so was I (throughout)

Bringing us back to reality, I see no reason why CH can't go Supreme, Churdle, Arkle, CChase, Gold Cup. I'd love to see him go the CChase route this year, but there's no need for him to imo. I understand the age side of things but for freaks like him I tend to ignore that. Yes mother nature will catch up with him at some point, but if he's the undisputed undefeated 2miler across 4 seasons (yes, getting ahead of myself there) would that not still make him the greatest ever 2miler?

If he didn't end up in the Gold Cup for whatever reason, it wouldn't tarnish his legacy for me. It's like saying Frankel's not the greatest of the 2000s because he didn't win the Derby or the Arc. Sea The Stars did and noone talks about him like Frankel.

Mentioning the Arkle though Odin surely brings us to the term ‘opportunity’.

If we believe this is possibly (no proof yet, just amazing potential) that this is the best horse of maybe say, 3 decades, then we know this is ‘opportunity’ is so rare. A once in a generation ‘opportunity’.

So surely, by going your way including all of these races above, the opportunity is almost being taken away?

The only singular reason Mr Buckley would concede he wants to go chasing is to prepare for and win a Gold Cup - not for any other reason. And yet the suggestion here is his first running in that race is a touch under 3 years away?????

It wouldn’t make sense to be trying it as a 9 year old first up, or as good as. Who knows what amazing creatures could be on the scene by then?? He might well need 2 Gold Cups, or 3 to win one - but the consensus appears to be he wins whatever, on his first Gold Cup.

The Arkle would be a waste of a year, or indeed the Champion Chase. A year at 2 miles chasing yes, but 2 years chasing at 2 miles i don’t believe is what Mr Buckley would be considering if he gave the go ahead to send Constitution Hill chasing. A Gold Cup within 2025, or the opportunity of 4 champion hurdles by 2026 would I’m sure be the only considerations.

 

[Lobos]

The Champion Chase could turn out to be an 'easier' race to win than the Arkle.
Energumene will be 10. He's proven that he's not unbeatable and will the heavens open for him for a third time ? Constitution Hill has the beating of El Fabiolo through Jonbon so if he can jump fences as well as EF then he should have his measure. After those two what else is there that could trouble him ?? The Arkle could be far less predictable with some classy Novice Hurdlers potentially going chasing.

 

[HesTheOne]

The Champion Chase could turn out to be an 'easier' race to win than the Arkle.
Energumene will be 10. He's proven that he's not unbeatable and will the heavens open for him for a third time ? Constitution Hill has the beating of El Fabiolo through Jonbon so if he can jump fences as well as EF then he should have his measure. After those two what else is there that could trouble him ?? The Arkle could be far less predictable with some classy Novice Hurdlers potentially going chasing.

Yea I'd agree Lobos there is zero unknowns with the champion chase opposition - which will likely be a small field & could even be smaller that we imagine if its confirmed as a target for CH

What an amazing dilemma to have as a race horse owner its the stuff of dreams. I hope we get to see it all come to fruition

 

[archie]

Nonsense to say that CH has the beating of El Fabiolo over fences through Jonbon.

 

[Benjy23]

Nonsense to say that CH has the beating of El Fabiolo over fences through Jonbon.

To be fair it does say 'if he can jump fences as well as EF'. Which is a huge disclaimer and basically just saying Constitution Hill would beat El Fabiolo over hurdles... Which is true like.

 

[Lobos]

To be fair it does say 'if he can jump fences as well as EF'. Which is a huge disclaimer and basically just saying Constitution Hill would beat El Fabiolo over hurdles... Which is true like.

What he said.......

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Luccia could be a big price @ 50/1 for the Champion Hurdle.

She could well end up being Epatante 2.0. She's actually bred to be a speed horse, unlike pretty much all of those around her in the Mares Novice Hurdle, who are NH bred and the majority have stamina laden sires. I don't think her run in the Mares Novice was really bad, she got done for stamina for me, even more so in that ground. The Champion Hurdle is run on the old course and in turn less emphasis is put on stamina, and it 'usually' doesn't come up as soft as it was on the Thursday of last week. As with any mare, she'll be getting the 7lbs from the boys too.

Nicky Henderson will likely want a horse in the Champion Hurdle should Constitution Hill take to fences and I think Luccia could be a ready replacement. She looks an obvious shortener, if not a player, come the festival next year.

 

[archie]

To be fair it does say 'if he can jump fences as well as EF'. Which is a huge disclaimer and basically just saying Constitution Hill would beat El Fabiolo over hurdles... Which is true like.

It's just not transferable form.

 

[Lobos]

Can't have Luccia at all COD. Was against her this year (although got sucked into some doubles) as her Bumper/Hurdle form didn't really look up to scratch and she was found out in the MNH which didn't look a strong race at all. Not sure where she goes from here.

 

[charlie]

From a market perspective Constitution Hill is fascinating as he's favourite for the Champion Hurdle, Arkle, Brown Advisory, and second fav for the Turners. If he were trained by anyone else I'd have fences as highly likely, but I think they'll 'disappoint' the masses and stick to what he does best. Its easy in the aftermath of glory to come out with quotes about the Gold Cup but when the dust settles, I am 99% sure Nicky will be in Michaels ear saying 'let's win 5 champion hurdles'. Michael was incredibly passionate about how much he enjoyed Newcastle and Cheltenham, and how they were the happiest racing hours of his life. I think they'll want that feeling next year and will take the view that if CH repeats next year what he did this year, then he can start chasing at 8 if they decide to go that route. It's definitely relevant that he's only 6 and not 7 or 8. The clock is not exactly ticking and he'll win 400k easily next year staying over hurdles. So I think thats what they'll do. I think the way to play this is smash CH in a load of multiples at 6/4 with Betfair over the next 2-3 months to get him onside as a 100+ point winner, staking small amounts on credible opposition at big exchange prices so if he does go over fences you've got that price collapse covered. Would love to know how the book builders are going to approach him.....

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Can't have Luccia at all COD. Was against her this year (although got sucked into some doubles) as her Bumper/Hurdle form didn't really look up to scratch and she was found out in the MNH which didn't look a strong race at all. Not sure where she goes from here.

We would have ALL said the same of Epatante, I'm sure of it.

Her rating and figures are all very similar to Epatante. I know Epatante had the 'jab' excuse, but I think Luccia had her own excuses that I'm willing to forgive her for at a big price.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

DJ has written in the Racing Post today that Paddies have priced for him on where Constitution Hill will start next season

Theyre putting the price up at 9am tomorrow.


Constitution Hill
First run in 23/24 season

Chasing 8/11
Hurdles Evens

 

[Exar Essay]

DJ has written in the Racing Post today that Paddies have priced for him on where Constitution Hill will start next season

Theyre putting the price up at 9am tomorrow.


Constitution Hill
First run in 23/24 season

Chasing 8/11
Hurdles Evens

Just to start in a hurdle ... that could help push prices for the Champion Hurdle up a little bit. It's not watertight as there is a potential scenario where he goes over fences, doesn't take to it, and reverts to hurdles. But if it takes peoples money away from the Champion Hurdle market, others might push the price up to tempt folk back in. I'd seriously consider taking 2/1.

 

[Lobos]

DJ has written in the Racing Post today that Paddies have priced for him on where Constitution Hill will start next season

Theyre putting the price up at 9am tomorrow.


Constitution Hill
First run in 23/24 season

Chasing 8/11
Hurdles Evens

Lovely . I do hope they are right.