Thanks for this Kev, excellent read.
I do a hell of a lot of similar things to yourself and only became successful at the festival when beginning to back multiple horses in races and using NRNB with over 60% of my bets for the week. Been going for 16 years and was pissing in the wind for the first ten years.
I've now had 6 consecutive profitable years ranging from 40-100% profit (don't keep exact records unfortunately) since adopting this approach. Which is essentially looking to get a profit on each race.
This year my learning points are as follows.
Reduce antepost bets (have said this last two years, but not managed it yet) - I only probably stake less than 10% antepost but my stats aren't great and I tend to shy away as I find it difficult (pyschologically) not getting a run. Added to that the NRNB market has always offered up plenty of value for me anyway.
Use forums for information and other ideas (especially this one). First time I've used this and it was a great help, and made a change from staring at oddschecker and watching stuff on youtube.
I think I'll use each way NRNB a lot more, I seem to have done it a little sporadically and looking back can't really see why, but I had some very good priced horses chinned, Glenloe 25-1, Rather Be 16-1, Mall Dini 16-1.
Use specials more- the nicholls one this year was very good (even though it scraped home). Only special i've ever really looked at prior to this year was the prestbury cup which i had my biggest ever bet on a couple of years ago (40pts) when they drew until Any Currency was disqualified weeks after. (blow was only softened as i backed any currency)
Leave the supreme alone for as long as possible.
Focus on the handicaps I think can be narrowed down (in the NRNB market), Close Brothers, Pertemps, Ultima, KIm Muir, to lesser extents the plate and fred winter.
Leave the County and Coral cup in particular until very near the day. The form comes from so many angles in these races it makes it almost impossible, whereas there are reasons I could give for the others being slightly easier puzzles to solve.
General golden rules I would advise for others (if they don't already)
Golden rule that everyone should follow until it changes, is apart from one or two races, whenever you look at a race, look at what Mullins has entered, Elliott has entered and Henderson has entered.
And for anyone that hasn't already got it (novices, for want of a better word) but can organise a reasonable bank roll to be available in January 2019 for the NRNB markets should ensure they have accounts with the following bookmakers.
Bet365
Skybet
Paddypower
William Hill
I would say they are the four most likely to continue to offer the earliest markets, and the top 3 generally have the best offers during the week also, without there offers I'm sure my profits would be less.
And finally, when it's just a 2-4 point bet on a 33-1 shot and your already in front for the week . don't get clever and cash it out, at worst just reduce your stake.
MOHAAYED.
