- Joined
- Apr 5, 2015
- Messages
- 14,330
- Reaction score
- 3,493
- Points
- 113
I couldn't see a thread but if I've missed one please merge.
15/15 – Had won between 1-5 chase races before
15/15 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
15/15 – Had won over at least 3m before (fences)
14/15 – Aged 9 or younger
13/15 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
12/15 – Carried 11-0 or less in weight
12/15 – Aged 8 or younger
11/15 – Carried 10-8 or less in weight
8/15 – Had won over fences at Chepstow before
Some strong trends here (shamelessly stolen from elsewhere) though it is somewhat surprising that younger horses generally come out best given the brutal stamina test this race can be on deep ground.
Easy to like Chase the Spud after his Midlands National win and his recent Haydock win but his previous Welsh National effort was poor and course form has counted for much in recent renewals, I'm reluctantly overlooking him.
One that does appeal is Mysteree who was just behind Chase the Spud at Uttoxeter but re-opposes here 13lb better off, his absence since Uttoxeter doesn't sit well with the trends but he won on reappearance last season so can be ready after a break, 14/1 looks a decent price to me.
Wild West Wind won the trial here and is likely to go well, Scottish National winner Vicente also a major player.
Any views ?
15/15 – Had won between 1-5 chase races before
15/15 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
15/15 – Had won over at least 3m before (fences)
14/15 – Aged 9 or younger
13/15 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
12/15 – Carried 11-0 or less in weight
12/15 – Aged 8 or younger
11/15 – Carried 10-8 or less in weight
8/15 – Had won over fences at Chepstow before
Some strong trends here (shamelessly stolen from elsewhere) though it is somewhat surprising that younger horses generally come out best given the brutal stamina test this race can be on deep ground.
Easy to like Chase the Spud after his Midlands National win and his recent Haydock win but his previous Welsh National effort was poor and course form has counted for much in recent renewals, I'm reluctantly overlooking him.
One that does appeal is Mysteree who was just behind Chase the Spud at Uttoxeter but re-opposes here 13lb better off, his absence since Uttoxeter doesn't sit well with the trends but he won on reappearance last season so can be ready after a break, 14/1 looks a decent price to me.
Wild West Wind won the trial here and is likely to go well, Scottish National winner Vicente also a major player.
Any views ?
