Swinton Hurdle tomorrow, very competitive end/start of season handicap.
Key trends:
Aged 4 to 7, just one winner aged over 7 in last 31 renewals
Horses carrying under 11st have a great record, just 2 winners carried over 11st since 2002
Horses who won last time out have poor record, last winner was Macs Joy in 2004
Must have run within last 63 days, 13 of last 15 winners ran in last 36 days
No strong trainer guides, Henderson, Fahey, Evan Williams and Hobbs all had two winner
The weight trend is a struggle this year as only four will carry under 11st, of which three won last time out so that leaves us with Traditional Dancer at 33/1 !
I'm prepared to include horses carrying 11st and a touch above and the one that I have backed is London Prize.
Winner of the Imperial Cup he then went for the Scottish Champion hurdle at Ayr and was bang in contention before getting the last all wrong and giving up plenty of ground, he wasn't given a hard time by Tom O'Brien after with a hand and heels ride but still finished best of them all and was under 4.5l off the winner at the finish.
An neck ahead of him that day was L'Ami Serge who went to Sandown on Whitbread day and hacked up beating rivals like The New One, Ptit Zig and co, having previously failed by a narrow margin in the County hurdle, the form has had a fair boost.
London Prize is up another pound but is a progressive type and having racked up a pair of flat wins on good ground last year he is likely to relish tomorrow surface.
12/1 each way has the look of a proper bet for me....