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Weekend Racing

Kevloaf said:
I can't believe Winsdor Avenue is 6/4 joint fav with Sam Spinner over 2m4f on Saturday at Doncaster 2:10.


This trip is too short for Sam Spinner by half a mile at least, Windsor Avenue is going to wallop him.


Looks a match anyway so 6/4 is fair but he's got more than a 50% chance of beating Sam Spinner. I like Sam Spinner, but he's going to lose on Saturday.
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It's 3 mile Kev!
 
jack1092 said:
It's 3 mile Kev!
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Yes just seen that on the JLT thread.


Ignore that then, I thought 6/4 was the best price I'd ever, ever, ever seen :highly_amused:
 
Taking my chances on 2 tomorrow.

Have to take on Never Adapt. Complete mentalist on BR debut, Hendo says she seems more relaxed but works on her own...so i imagine he's in the dark about how she'll get on down at the start tomorrow. FR horses she spanked are mid 120s, so yeah she could hose up, but she could also be too gassy. Nordic Combined, yup the 10 time hurdle maiden. Has some decent runs behind good horses in novice/maiden hurdles, also 2 reasonable runs in handicaps before his last one at Newbury. Ground should suit tomorrow. 14/1

Kilbricken Storm- Yes he won at a huge price in the AB, but he backed it up at Punchestown. Ran 98Ls behind Santini and had a fractured pelvis. Thrown in a stayers from that and then onto Aintree, he was up there until push came to shove, and to me the wind op might spring the improvemnet needed to win off 145. Doesn't look a cracking race tomorrow. 9/1
 
At Donny tomorrow.
Not seen a bet there just yet though.

But for Cheltenham...

Have backed Chantry house 13/8 8pts (plus 1pt double with the lunatic never adapt)
Stoney Mountain 4-1 4pts
Barntown 8-1 4pts
Yanworth 9/2 2pts & Easyland 6-1 2pts
Goodbye Dancer 11-1 4pts

And a 1ptew double Neverushacon and goodbye dancer 120-1 I think.

still pondering Donny, not that enticing really.

forgot I backed the maxwell horse ecu de noviere also 2pts 15/2.
 
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12:10 - This is Chantry House’s first time over hurdles, his bumper form looks extremely strong which would normally temped me in, but oh no… not this time around. His price is disugting.
So I’m going to take a look at the ‘without the favourite’ and find some value, here I fancy SHANG TANG and GLORY AND FORTUNE without the favourite

12:45 - Basic rules apply here, I don’t back horses that are going over fences for the first time.. especially at Cheltenham. Stoney Mountain has been impressive so far over hurdles, but I just can’t back it if I’m sticking to my selection process. PYM is the one for me, he’s wanted 3 miles for a long time, and won last time out over this trip

13:20 - Very tricky race. I’ve gone for two here - ECU DE LA NOVERIE and MANVERS HOUSE

15:40 - This could be my best bet of the day. KILBRICKEN STORM returns back after a difficult 18/19 season having dislike his first run over fences, and then placed in some top class races. He just didn’t perform. He comes back this year into a much easier race, having had a wind op aswell. He the trainer has him 80% prepared for this race, I expect him to win it. I’m quietly confident about this horse
 
Interesting that Paul Nichols has no entries anywhere tomorrow or Sunday and only 4 declared for Cheltenham on Saturday
Looks like the vet has been around with the flu jabs
Might be a quiet couple of weeks for the stable
 
WHAT A MOMENT has had 2 races at Cheltenham over fences over 3m 1f and won both of them off 127 and 132. Races off 130 and The Pipe stable have probably at no point in this horses career been in form like they are currently.
Pipes won 2 of the last 10 runnings of this race and this horse has almost certainly been laid out for the race. 9yos have a good record and could easily dot up carrying just 10-6. Goes on any ground. Should be no bigger than 6/4.
Both of Pipes winners in the last 10 years ran off bottom weight, this one has the 2nd lowest weight to carry in the race so fits the profile of a Pipe winner. Master Overseer won this after being pulled up tailed off on his previous run so no need to worry that this waa pulled up when last seen. On an amazing mark and unbeaten here in 2 races over this sort of trip.
This horses last Cheltenham win followed a pulled up on his previous run.
The blinkers go on here for the 1st time. Tom Scud'missile'amore will enjoy this one.

40/1 is an insult to mankind
 
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quevega said:
At Donny tomorrow.
Not seen a bet there just yet though.

But for Cheltenham...

Yanworth 9/2 2pts & Easyland 6-1 2pts
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Know much about EASYLAND Q? Think hes a threat? YANWORTH although 4/1 now, is still crying out to me!
 
Liammet said:
Interesting that Paul Nichols has no entries anywhere tomorrow or Sunday and only 4 declared for Cheltenham on Saturday
Looks like the vet has been around with the flu jabs
Might be a quiet couple of weeks for the stable
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Is this confirmed or are you guessing? Normally does it in January
 
Big Bucks said:
Know much about EASYLAND Q? Think hes a threat? YANWORTH although 4/1 now, is still crying out to me!
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Not a great deal.
But always look out for the French ones here, although the days of getting 100-1 at the 5 day stage seem long gone.
He looks one of the more potentially useful ones they've sent for a bit I reckon.
But the price was only fair.
The weight turnaround neverushacon gets with Yanworth worried me a bit for him so I just went with the each of two bet.
 
jack1092 said:
Is this confirmed or are you guessing? Normally does it in January
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Just questing jack or throwing it out there in case anyone can confirm
Seems a very low book of entries for this stable over a weekend
None Friday,Sunday or Monday and only 4 entries on Saturday
Maybe reading too much into it
Not sure if trainers have changed tack this year after last years debacle pre Cheltenham
 
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ELEGANTLY TASTED said:
WHAT A MOMENT has had 2 races at Cheltenham over fences over 3m 1f and won both of them off 127 and 132. Races off 130 and The Pipe stable have probably at no point in this horses career been in form like they are currently.
Pipes won 2 of the last 10 runnings of this race and this horse has almost certainly been laid out for the race. 9yos have a good record and could easily dot up carrying just 10-6. Goes on any ground. Should be no bigger than 6/4.
Both of Pipes winners in the last 10 years ran off bottom weight, this one has the 2nd lowest weight to carry in the race so fits the profile of a Pipe winner. Master Overseer won this after being pulled up tailed off on his previous run so no need to worry that this waa pulled up when last seen. On an amazing mark and unbeaten here in 2 races over this sort of trip.
This horses last Cheltenham win followed a pulled up on his previous run.
The blinkers go on here for the 1st time. Tom Scud'missile'amore will enjoy this one.

40/1 is an insult to mankind
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For all of Mankind, its only fair that SINGLEFARMPAYMENT gets the W today! 8/1 thank you very much!
 
Liammet said:
Just questing jack or throwing it out there in case anyone can confirm
Seems a very low book of entries for this stable over a weekend
None Friday,Sunday or Monday and only 4 entries on Saturday
Maybe reading too much into it
Not sure if trainers have changed tack this year after last years debacle pre Cheltenham
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Highly doubt he's doing it on the run up to Christmas.
 
Best bet of the weekend is surely JUST THAT LORD ew 10/1 in the 7:30 Chelmsford this evening.

Absolute machine
 
Call Me Lord takes the International tomorrow. Slight gamble that he'll take to a left handed track, but had 7-10lbs in hand by my calculation to play around with

Dame De Compagnie in the last, good run in the goodwood, steps up in trip and back with her own sex
 
Really looking forward to today.

Shorties I like at Doncaster are Pagero, Windsor Avenue and Sky Pirate. 1pt treble
Shorties I like at Cheltenham are Destrier & Dame De Compagnie. 1pt double
Five fold 59/1. 1pt

At Cheltenham I have gone for:

Langer Dan @ 5/1
Good Boy Bobby @ 9/4
Cepage @ 6/1

The next two are incredibly difficult IMO.

I like Champage Well and got on at 4/1 but I think Vatlor is his biggest danger.

I'll probably just watch the International Hurdle. Pentland Hills is way too short and Call Me Lord has too many questions to answer going left handed. Might take a swing on gumball at 25/1.
 
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