The Cleeve Hurdle is fascinating. I have attempted to analyse in depth but any light I was hoping shed on it has been obscured by a dense fog. Anyway, in case you're interested:
Agrapart will be well suited by the ground but is not well in at the weights. Despite lizzie Kelly insisting he will be suited by the longer trip, there is little evidence to support that contention.Beer Goggles would obviously be a sentimental winner but a lot will depend on how soft the ground is. His win at Newbury represents good form but the time indicated that the ground was not as soft as it may well be tomorrow and all of his previous form was on decent ground. He (and maybe Saint Are) are likely to make the pace. Not to be ruled out but, on balance, may find this too tough.Wholestone has course form but I remain to be convinced that he is as effective over 3 miles and will overlook despite decent course form. Court Minstrel will surely struggle at these weights, on this ground and over this distance. Thomas Campbell is interesting: his handicap rating would indicate he is the best in at the weights but I would be inclined to take that with a pinch of salt. He was raised 10 pounds for his win here in November but if you take the view that James Bowen is no 7lb claimer then he was raised nearer to 17 pounds - not sure his form so far merits a 158 rating. That being said, the ground was soft in November so no issues there, the distance is fine and he is clearly a much better horse for going left-handed ( 5/7 left/handed v 0/4 right/handed. Finian's Oscar is a complete 'talking horse' as far as I'm concerned and there have to be concerns about the distance -happy to leave well alone at the likely odds. The World's End would be my bet of the day if this race was run on good ground. He was tanking along in the Albert Bartlett last year when falling at the 2nd last. He has not been at his best so far this season and reads to me like a horse being prepared for March. That and the ground are the two things that would me hesitate tomorrow. Ex Patriot is interesting in the sense that I have no idea why they have brought him over for his first try at 3 miles. He is ridden by one of my favourite jockeys (Rachael Blackmore) who is a great judge of pace and presents the horse well but there is nothing in his breeding to suggest he will benefit from this step up in trip. However, he ran a fine race in the Triumph last year so the course (and ground) will pose no problems and, if there is no pace, that will play into his hands. This is a Grand National prep for Saint Are and his first run over hurdles for almost 7 years (although he did win a Grade 1 all those years ago).Colin's Sister has a lot to to turn around the form with Beer Goggles and Wholestone on a course where she has not really shown her best form
So, after all that I have no idea but will put Thomas Campbell, The World's End and Ex Patriot in my combination exacta and trifecta with a small e/w bet on the latter.
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