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Weather Watch 2026

Going now soft after 7mm overnight. Another 3mm to come. Higher than the 5-8mm range they forecast yesterday. The Going Stick was 5.6 at 12.30pm yesterday

From BHA Website:

7mm overnight into Sunday. Further showers possible later in the
day on Sunday (3mm). Some drizzle possible on Monday and a
50-60% chance of some light showers on Tuesday​ (1mm)
 
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I live just outside of Cirencester, not far from Cheltenham, and it’s been a nice day here. Mild with one light shower - another drying day so far. But a fair dumping overnight to be fair. Watching the football (Aston Villa v Spurs) it is hammering down in Birmingham, plenty of splashes on the pitch. Just shows how a few miles can make all the difference - hopefully the heavy rain stays just north of us.
 
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Always a Claimer said:
I live just outside of Cirencester, not far from Cheltenham, and it’s been a nice day here. Mild with one light shower - another drying day so far. But a fair dumping overnight to be fair. Watching the football (Aston Villa v Spurs) it is hammering down in Birmingham, plenty of splashes on the pitch. Just shows how a few miles can make all the difference - hopefully the heavy rain stays just north of us.
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….as an aside, Villa Park another of the grounds I’ve played on but sadly I never scored there :chuncky:

Appreciate the weather update.
 
Mostly dry but we have had a few heavy showers, would be surprised if the ground isn't soft all over now
 
Odin said:
For tracking purposes if I remember to update:

Tuesday 5th March 1430: Old 3.6, New 4.0, XC 2.9
Thursday 7th March 0900: Old 4.6, New 4.9
Friday 8th March 1530: XC 4.4
Saturday 9th March 1230: Old 5.6, New 5.7
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These numbers obviously out of date, but it's literally drying at 1 point on the going stick every 2 days. Thursday/Friday almost certain to have good in the description and may even need watering depending on how hard the rain has hit yesterday/today.
 
Odin said:
These numbers obviously out of date, but it's literally drying at 1 point on the going stick every 2 days. Thursday/Friday almost certain to have good in the description and may even need watering depending on how hard the rain has hit yesterday/today.
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Thanks Odin, been really interesting to this slant on things. Getting evermore confident on Banbridge turning up now.
 
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Odin said:
These numbers obviously out of date, but it's literally drying at 1 point on the going stick every 2 days. Thursday/Friday almost certain to have good in the description and may even need watering depending on how hard the rain has hit yesterday/today.
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There's been a fair bit today mate. Not constant but some very heavy showers, I suspect it'll be closer to 5 on the going stick as a guess.
 
Dandrew99 said:
There's been a fair bit today mate. Not constant but some very heavy showers, I suspect it'll be closer to 5 on the going stick as a guess.
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Even at 5.0, with two days of recovery it could drain to 6.0, which by going stick ratings is fast for Cheltenham in March.

The key question which none of this can answer is how the ground rides/churns up given it's so close to so much rain. If there's none of note between now and Thursday, it feels like it could be like having two different festivals with the good ground horses properly benefiting from the latter days of the festival, but soft side of good ground lovers benefiting from the first two days.

EDIT: For those interested, the soggy Wednesday from a few years ago "only" resulted in a 1 unit difference in the going stick for the new course, despite being the wettest day I've ever seen, let alone been caught up in - showing how well the course can take the rain. Fully expect that it will be hard work though
 
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Odin said:
Even at 5.0, with two days of recovery it could drain to 6.0, which by going stick ratings is fast for Cheltenham in March.

The key question which none of this can answer is how the ground rides/churns up given it's so close to so much rain. If there's none of note between now and Thursday, it feels like it could be like having two different festivals with the good ground horses properly benefiting from the latter days of the festival, but soft side of good ground lovers benefiting from the first two days.

EDIT: For those interested, the soggy Wednesday from a few years ago "only" resulted in a 1 unit difference in the going stick for the new course, despite being the wettest day I've ever seen, let alone been caught up in - showing how well the course can take the rain. Fully expect that it will be hard work though
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Rain is meant to continue until the early hours of this morning, relatively dry tomorrow then a few hours of rain again Tuesday morning.

Big difference is the water table, suspect it's a lot higher than it was on that Wednesday, so should dry out slower. Far from a geography expert so this is just my best guess.
 
Dandrew99 said:
Rain is meant to continue until the early hours of this morning, relatively dry tomorrow then a few hours of rain again Tuesday morning.

Big difference is the water table, suspect it's a lot higher than it was on that Wednesday, so should dry out slower. Far from a geography expert so this is just my best guess.
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Yup, also no expert - just like finding patterns in numbers which provide a vast simplification of the process giving an objective start point before the context you've added there can be considered :encouragement:

Would be much easier if the GoingStick readings were available every day though like they used to be in the lead up to big meetings. Almost like the introduction of these weather stations has made the clerk's think they don't need to be as transparent in the lead up to the big day...
 
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It looks like the was rain through the night judging by the various webcam across Cheltenham.

They surely start on soft ground.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
It looks like the was rain through the night judging by the various webcam across Cheltenham.

They surely start on soft ground.
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Bound to. Must be Heavy in places again by now. I'm happy though as that's what the ground has been like all year round so the form will hold up for the punters.
 
Gonna be really interesting to see the numbers today, the weather station is only showing 4mm rain in last 24 hours which must be wrong based on what everyone else has said/seen...
 
Istabraq said:
There’s a load appeared in the forecast for Tuesday morning now too….
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Yes, the Met Office are currently showing 7 hours of heavy rain from 7am-2pm on Tuesday, but that looks pretty much it for the week.
 
If there isn’t Heavy in the going description somewhere, I will be astounded. There certainly won’t be “Good-Soft” anywhere. I’d like to see the going stick readings though. They classified it as GS on Sat before Sunday’s rain, but the going stick readings were aligned with a description of “Soft” for recent festivals. Think it’ll be 4.something and they’ll call it Soft (Heavy in places) when it’ll really be Heavy, especially after the rain mid-morning.
 
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Latest here - I’m amazed they haven’t taken going stick readings for the last two days - Saturday for Old and New, Friday for XC

The going @CheltenhamRaces remains
Old: Soft,
C/C: Heavy Soft (in places),
New: Soft.
GoingStick Old: 5.6 09/03/2024 12.30
C/C: 4.4 on 08/03/2024 15.30
New: 5.7 on 09/03/2024 12.30

https://x.com/turftrax/status/1767112546673430981?s=46&t=JKozg8_QAp9QKCXBG0j_tA
 
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