Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase 2018

[Deleted member 4957]

Looking in depth at the RSA and I come across Sizing Tennessee, who I’d give an each way squeak to at the least at 25s in what looks a weak race. Then I notice he’s off 143! Is anyone in the know as to his aim? I guess the 4 miler not out of the question either but I’d give him a real favourites chance if coming here off 143

3 poor Chelt runs Robbante, one in the bumper, one in the County and one in the opening day 2.5m nov handicap, he might just not be a Cheltenham horse.
I'm never a fan of 10yo novices, appreciate the horse had issues and missed 2 years but despite lack of miles the clock never lies...

 

[Robbante]

3 poor Chelt runs Robbante, one in the bumper, one in the County and one in the opening day 2.5m nov handicap, he might just not be a Cheltenham horse.
I'm never a fan of 10yo novices, appreciate the horse had issues and missed 2 years but despite lack of miles the clock never lies...

Yeah valid points. Another example of Tizzard ballsing up a good horse imo, everyone involved now banging on about what a dour stayer he is, yet he's only run twice over 3m+ in his whole career (19 runs)

 

[Robbante]

Yeah valid points. Another example of Tizzard ballsing up a good horse imo, everyone involved now banging on about what a dour stayer he is, yet he's only run twice over 3m+ in his whole career (19 runs)

Saying that, since he's been upped to 3m+ his two runs (both at cheltenham) are one win and one fall (when looking likely to win). The one which he fell in he looked on to beat Black Corton, who seems a fairly good yardstick this year... One to have a look at closer to the time for me, will definitely have an interest if in a handicap

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Yeah, don't disagree Robbante, very fair points about his recent form.
Can't find a decent Spring run in his form though, best form looks to be Autumn/Winter and in deep ground, so perhaps worth a second look if it was to come up soft ?
Just hate 10 year olds....

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Is this where Gold Present is likely to end up? The 16/1 is seriously tempting me. He'll be high up the weights but this is a horse who is improving with every run, and has decent festival form in the book. James Bowen could also take a handy few lb off.

 

[Robbante]

Yeah, don't disagree Robbante, very fair points about his recent form.
Can't find a decent Spring run in his form though, best form looks to be Autumn/Winter and in deep ground, so perhaps worth a second look if it was to come up soft ?
Just hate 10 year olds....

Yes agree, good spring ground would be a worry. Don’t think I’d quite back him for RSA anyhow and latest comments indicate that’s where they’re aiming him

 

[Robbante]

Is this where Gold Present is likely to end up? The 16/1 is seriously tempting me. He'll be high up the weights but this is a horse who is improving with every run, and has decent festival form in the book. James Bowen could also take a handy few lb off.

I have already backed him nrnb at 14s, think he’s a class horse and will be pushing for favouritism if running

 

[Robbante]

I have already backed him nrnb at 14s, think he’s a class horse and will be pushing for favouritism if running

Grand national a possibility, not sure if they will take this in along the way

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Grand national a possibility, not sure if they will take this in along the way

Cheers Rob. Got a small money on him for the Grand National at +140 but think they may wait another year before going there. He also has a Ryanair entry which is slightly surprising to me as I think he's a 3 miler.

 

[Robbante]

Cheers Rob. Got a small money on him for the Grand National at +140 but think they may wait another year before going there. He also has a Ryanair entry which is slightly surprising to me as I think he's a 3 miler.

Definitely seems a 3 miler to me, hope we get a run for our money, certainly looks the most progressive horse in the race

 

[Kevloaf]

My 'concern' about Gold Present is a little bit hard to qualify with evidence, its more a feeling ... that because he's gone off write well fancied and tipped on every run this season he's too exposed. Or, shorter than he should be. He's a house that's likely to be a 'sexy tip'?

I feel he's never been a price that's genuinly good value ... his anticipated form is already a factor?

Not ruling hum out whatsoever because I've got no proper opinion formed yet, I'm just inclined to be against him at this stage.... happy to be proven wrong though while he's the price he is...

 

[Robbante]

My 'concern' about Gold Present is a little bit hard to qualify with evidence, its more a feeling ... that because he's gone off write well fancied and tipped on every run this season he's too exposed. Or, shorter than he should be. He's a house that's likely to be a 'sexy tip'?

I feel he's never been a price that's genuinly good value ... his anticipated form is already a factor?

Not ruling hum out whatsoever because I've got no proper opinion formed yet, I'm just inclined to be against him at this stage.... happy to be proven wrong though while he's the price he is...

Get what you’re saying, but he’s beaten a lot of the horses towards the top of the ultima market with plenty in hand. I’d have to have him onside come the day, and he’s not going to be 14/1, so a no brainer for me nrnb

 

[Kevloaf]

Get what you’re saying, but he’s beaten a lot of the horses towards the top of the ultima market with plenty in hand. I’d have to have him onside come the day, and he’s not going to be 14/1, so a no brainer for me nrnb

Most of those would be weighted to reverse the form though?

I have no proof, but this far out of be wanting a different form line to consider.

He'd half in price at absolute best? Which might be value
.... But at 7/1 he might not be a great bet on the day.

I'll keep an open mind and look at this tomorrow though Rob

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

My 'concern' about Gold Present is a little bit hard to qualify with evidence, its more a feeling ... that because he's gone off write well fancied and tipped on every run this season he's too exposed. Or, shorter than he should be. He's a house that's likely to be a 'sexy tip'?

I feel he's never been a price that's genuinly good value ... his anticipated form is already a factor?

Not ruling hum out whatsoever because I've got no proper opinion formed yet, I'm just inclined to be against him at this stage.... happy to be proven wrong though while he's the price he is...

I don't he was been well fancied on either of this season's runs. At Newbury he was friendless in the betting and drifted from 9/2 to 13/2. LTO he went off at 8/1 having been around that price all morning. I'd say they were very fair prices for a horse who ran well in the spring festivals.

To my mind, seven barrows didn't think he'd win first time out (perhaps he needed the run) but he surprised them. The step up to 3m improved him again lto and although he has gone up in the weights he could still be improving and ahead of his mark.

I agree that he may be well touted ahead of the festival but I just feel that what we've seen so far isn't the ceiling of his ability.

 

[Liammet]

I like Gold Present but feel his handicap mark is now too high
There has not been a horse in over 30 years to have won this race with a mark of over 150
12 of the last 15 winners have carried less than 11 stone
He is entered in the listed sky bet chase next week
Whether he wins or not they may be forced down the Ryanair route
Where he has an each Way squeak at 20/1 nrnb in a race that will cut up

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

UTPT won this off 155 last season. Same rating at GP.

 

[Robbante]

I would want GP covered as think he has the potential to put in a better performance again come March. The other horse i like for this race currently is Robinsfirth (for all the reasons as stated by Jono earlier on in the thread). Off a great mark, has a real bit of class about him, and again is one with the potential to improve. Am sure Singlefarmpayment will be up there again off his mark too, but would hope that one of those two are more progressive

 

[Toffees]

UTPT won this off 155 last season. Same rating at GP.

I would want GP covered as think he has the potential to put in a better performance again come March. The other horse i like for this race currently is Robinsfirth (for all the reasons as stated by Jono earlier on in the thread). Off a great mark, has a real bit of class about him, and again is one with the potential to improve. Am sure Singlefarmpayment will be up there again off his mark too, but would hope that one of those two are more progressive

Gold Present has a mark of 155 now. If he wins the Sky Bet Chase by a length or two, what does he go to? 157?

His jumping won in for him first time out in my opinion, although he did jump right at a couple of open ditches. In Ascot then Gold Present and Frodon went off at a quick gallop for the first circuit. They went slower than the Novice chase over three miles on the last circuit. But the way he found more at the straight was impressive, and then his jump at the last!

Singlefarm is turning into a serious cliff horse for me now. Been given far too much to do so far this season. More confident on him turning up though.
Prices fair but stingy at the moment haha

This is turning into a classier race though. In 2016, the first 5 home carried 11-5 +

 

[Liammet]

UTPT won this off 155 last season. Same rating at GP.

Sorry,was getting this race mixed up
Might well win but I prefer picking a horse in cheltenham handicaps where there looks to be a plot to keep the mark down
Good luck if anyone is on though particularly at big prices

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Gold Present has a mark of 155 now. If he wins the Sky Bet Chase by a length or two, what does he go to? 157?

I think any sort of win in a valuable handicap like that will see his rating very close to, if not beyond, 160.

I agree this is becoming a classy race, almost a Gold Cup trial, but as with most handicaps there's very likely one or more horses who have been running over wrong distances on wrong ground at wrong courses and are therefore a stone better than their official rating so topweights are always going to be vulnerable.
Last year was a tremendous effort from UTPT

This remains one of the few true handicaps where top to bottom is a significant weight difference, the nov chase later in the day (last race) is a joke, the last 2 years there's been no more than a few lb between the lot.