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Triumph Hurdle 2021

Kotkijet

Juvenile expert - LUCKY 9 VEGAN MEGA BOX advocate
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Hello all.

With the Triumph Hurdle only 248 days away, I was shocked to see that a thread has yet to be made for the festival highlight. The field would still be somewhat difficult to predict as there will be plenty more imports from the flat and the from continent whose destinies have yet to be written. And while we should be thankful that unlike the Champion Chase or Gold Cup, it is not in danger of being cannibalised by something as cancerous as the Ryanair Chase or as incorrectly placed as the Mares Chase, there are still alternatives in the Supreme and Dawn Run. Nevertheless, the Triumph Hurdle still brings the best in the division together the vast majority of the time and as some bookies have already formed their markets, now is as good a time as any to have a first look at the possible contenders.

It is with a hushed voice that I should point out that I am neither a gambler or a tipster and my aim is to make detached observations without the hindrances of material motivations. Nevertheless, while the non-gambler is probably a protected species on this or any horse racing forum, any information, angle or opinion on this race would still be of great interest. Particularly as I have already seen the name Quilixios banded around these parts!

The format for this preview will be;-
odds, name, colour, gender, trainer (if known), race record
sire (damsire){family-number}(dosage index) # dam of subject horse is the / # dam of a notable jumps relative
(1/1 = full sibling, 0.5 = half sibling, 2/1 = granddam is dam of/dam is sibling of, 3/2 = great granddam is granddam of, 5/3 = 5th dam is third dam of etc etc etc)

I have also attempted to link videos of the French races within the profiles.

22/1 Paros chg N Henderson 1 run 1 win 0 places
Masterstroke (Green Tune){16-c}(0.60) 2/1 Softsong 3rd Lstd Hcp Hdl (121), Sandown 2012
Well backed before the off, Paros was successful on his sole outing which came in an ordinary conditions hurdle at Dieppe on the 22nd of May. Making all and jumping nicely, he did not need to be hard ridden to win by two lengths. The runner up has given the form a credible look by twice finishing placed in pattern company either side of a decisive victory at Clairefontaine. Third placed Hacker Des Places also won next time out at Dax where he beat a previous winner. Trainer Gabriel Leenders has yet to send any significant juveniles to the UK but he did recently collect his first Grade One in the Prix Ferdinand Dufaure. Masterstroke, who this year joined Yorton Farm Stud after standing in France, is a Monsun stallion out of a half sister to Galileo. He has yet to have a UK/IRE jumps winner from his first three crops but does have a 33% winners to runners rate with his French jumpers including the useful three-year-old of 2018, Floridee. Green Tune, another stout influence, is also the damsire of L'Unique. The damline is not short of decent jumps horses with National Spirit winner Prospect Wells and Brooklyn's Gold showing as 4/2 along with Authorized who is a fantastic sire of juveniles. Paros is due to run in the colours of Middleham Park Racing.

25/1 Heros d'Ainay bg G Leenders 1 run 1 win 0 places
Sholokhov (Dom Alco){9-f}(0.87) 2/1 Crystal d'Ainay 2nd Long Walk Hurdle, Windsor 2004
Heros d'Ainay ran out a most impressive winner of the listed Prix Go Ahead on his debut and speculation of huge offers followed shortly afterwards. However at this stage, the horse is still in France and it has been reported that connections are keen to keep hold of him on the basis that they are in sports and not sales.

25/1 Quilixios bg G Elliott 1-1-0
Maxios (Lomitas){16-c}(0.63) 3/1 Quicuyo 1st 2m½f Handicap Chase (137), Doncaster 2012
The least fancied of Francois Nicolle's four runners, Quilixious ground down the long time leader to win from a well strung out field in the second division of the traditional curtain raiser, the Prix d'Essai des Poulains. The time was two seconds quicker than the first division and while it has yet to produce any winners, the second and fourth filled the same positions (in reverse order) in the Prix Go Ahead. Gordon Elliot has had two juveniles from Francois Nicolle in recent years and while neither won for him during their first seasons, both acquitted themselves well in the Fred Winter with Campeador falling when holding a strong chance at the last in 2016 and Coko Beach finishing runner up three years later. Maxios, another addition to the UK/IRE NH stallion ranks for 2020, as well as being another son of Monsun, has so far shown himself a fine sire of juvenile hurdlers. More than half of his offspring have won over obstacles with almost two thirds achieving RPRs exceeding 107 as well as having 71% improve for switching from the flat. Lomitas is also a very capable damsire of juveniles and both he and Maxios have enjoyed success with family 16-c. Incidentally, he and Paros are fairly closely related on the dam's side with Quilixios's fifth dam being the fourth dam of Paros. Quilixios is set to run for Cheveley Park Stud.

33/1 Berkshire Rocco chc A Balding 6-1-3 OR 108
Sir Percy (Shirocco) {1-c}(0.18) 4/2 Bulwark 7th Pertemps Hurdle (127), Haydock 2009
A rating of 108 was earned after his finishing second in the Queen's Vase at Royal Ascot. If he runs over juvenile hurdles, only three horses (Housesofparliament, Sword Fighter and Sir Erec - all for Joseph O'Brien) will have brought higher flat rating to the sphere since 2012. While sixty-three horses have gone hurdling after starting with Andrew Balding during that time period, some are also sold to race abroad and I have yet to see anything that suggests Berkshire Rocco is being prepped for a hurdles career. That said, if anybody knows otherwise then please let us know.

33/1 Mica Malpic chg D Cottin 1-1-0
Hunter's Light (Green Tune){1-w}(0.78) 3/1 Monetaire 2nd Festival Plate (138), Cheltenham 2015
The Prix Grandak, a race for colts and geldings making their hurdles debuts, has a deserved reputation for being the launchpad of quality hurdlers. In 2018, it was won by Beaumec de Houelle who retired to stud as champion three year old and behind him that day were Quel Destin and Adjali who would finish first and second in the Finale Juvenile Hurdle at Chepstow. Nicky Henderson's We Have A Dream (two Grade One juvenile wins) and Style de Garde (second in the Fred Winter) ran in the 2017 renewal, Frodon won in 2015 and champion Bonito de Berlais was third in 2014. Storm Of Saintly won ahead of Triumph runner up Far West in 2012 when emulating his father Saint des Saints who took the race in 2001. This year's renewal, contested at Compiegne, was won in very nice style by the imposing Mica Malpic. The runner up that day, Prunay, would finish third in a Grade 3 next time at Auteuil and the winning time was a full three seconds quicker than the corresponding event for fillies later on the card. Mica Malpic is the sole offspring to have ran over jumps for sire Hunter's Light thus far although Hunter's Light is from the family of Darshaan, his sire Dubawi produced Dodging Bullets and Poet's Voice has a reasonable record with juveniles. J P McManus has ended up buying the horse and as with trainer David Cottin's Easysland, Mica Malpic is to continue to be trained in France. There is still a chance we can see him at Cheltenham in March although on looks alone, it is possible that he is a more long term project.

33/1 Midnights Legacy bc A King 4-3-0 OR 90
Midnight Legend (Generous){8-i}(0.47) 2/2 Katchit 1st Champion Hurdle, Cheltenham 2008
Hurdling was the plan for Midnights Legacy before he even set foot on a racecourse with connections hoping that he might one day emulate his sire by achieving success as an entire over hurdles before replacing him as a stallion. His pedigree screams juvenile hurdler as it was in this sphere that his full sister Midnight's Gift, and half sisters Giving Glances and Forgiving Glance, both picked up black type. Another full sister Giving Back and half sister Giveaway Glance were also winners as juveniles. Furthermore, Midnights Legacy's dam Giving is a half sister to Miracle - the dam of Katchit who won seven times as a juvenile, including the Triumph and Anniversary Hurdles, before winning the Champion Hurdle the following season. Even the best laid plans in the breeding sheds rarely play out in reality and ones as rare and specific as those for Midnights Legacy would seemingly require some metaphysical intervention. Nevertheless, after a fairly uninspiring debut at 33/1 in a Bath novice last September, this scion has gone on to win his next three starts over ten and twelve furlongs on ground from soft to good while showing a willing attitude. Even without considering his background, Midnights Legacy would be an intriguing recruit from the flat as everything about his profile, along with his being trained by Alan King, would give him all the obvious tools to win races over jumps.

33/1 Monmiral blc P Nicholls 1-1-0
Saint des Saints (Mont Basile){16}(0.60) 2/1 La Landiere 1st Cathcart Chase (G2), Cheltenham 2003
The Prix Rush is another contest for hurdling debutants although as it occurs at the beginning of the season, its reputation is not as strong as the aforementioned Prix Grandak. Nevertheless, it has still featured some very decent sorts over the years including Pic d'Orhy, Goliath du Berlais, Master Dino, Terrefort, Smashing, Esmondo, Baby Mix, Sam Winner, Twinlight, Balko, Cerium, Vol Solitaire and Robin des Champs. The first and second this year have both joined the Paul Nicholls yard and it was Monmiral who came out on top. The form of the race is non too inspiring at this stage with the field producing one win (in a minor contest at Bordeaux) from nineteen subsequent attempts - although only one of the first five home have been out since. By Saints des Saints, out of a winning half-sister to La Landiere and a half-brother to two other jumps winners, Monmiral has a fine pedigree for the game. Paul Nicholls has had only one juvenile winner from four Francois Nicolle imports in recent years although one of the other three was Pic d'Orhy whose career picked up in his second season. Monmiral is set to run in the colours of John Hales.

33/1 Pamela des Mottes bf F Nicolle 3-2-1
Kapgarde (Nikos){9-f}(1.22) 2/1 Farlow des Mottes 1st GCdH de Printemps (G3H), Auteuil 2018
Impressive winner of the first fillies' juvenile of the season and followed up in the listed Prix Girofla before finishing third in a Grade 3. Still registered at the Nicolle yard with no reports of her moving to the UK.

33/1 Tritonic chc A King 5-2-1 OR 99
Sea The Moon (Selkirk){4-r}(1.13) 4/3 Le Breuil 1st National Hunt Chase (G2), Cheltenham 2019
The second Alan King horse on this list, Tritonic would bring a high level of flat form based on his win in the Haynes, Hanson & Clark and finishing runner up in a Royal Ascot handicap. Sire Sea The Moon had a most promising first season as a jumps stallion earning a 43% winners to runners strike rate with 57% of his offspring recording RPRs above 107 including the Grade One winner and Triumph Hurdle third Allmankind. Selkirk's record as a damsire is not quite as exciting although he did produce the Champion Hurdler Sublimity. Owned by the McNeill family, it is more likely than not that he will go hurdling and he would probably make an above average recruit to the game.

40/1 Gold Tweet bg G Leenders 3-1-0
On Est Bien (Goldneyev){8-a}(1.22) 3/1 Jance 2nd Prix Sagan, Auteuil 1996
Won on his first start by thirty lengths at Vichy and appears to be on this list on that basis alone as he is still registered with his trainer. Has since been beaten fourteen and twenty lengths in two subsequent starts.

40/1 Nimes
Was last seen pulling up after breaking down badly at Compiegne. Shame on Bet365 and Unibet for still accepting bets on this poor horse.

40/1 Hell Red grg P Nicholls 1-0-1
Martaline (Muhtathir){1-t}(0.45) 1/1 Hell Boy GCdH de Compiegne (G3), Compiegne 2019
Hell Red was runner up to his new stablemate Monmiral in the aforementioned Prix Rush. By the late Martaline, another of France's quality jumps stallions, Hell Red is a full brother to the useful Hell Boy, half sister to listed handicap hurdle winner Hell's Queen and is out of a half sister to Baan Rim Pa who won the Grade Two Prix Leon Rambaud in 2011. The third dam Battani substantiates the juvenile credentials by being the dam of Me Voici, winner of the 2009 Finale, and the granddam of 2013 Anniversary winner L'Unique. Historically the path from Guillaume Macaire to Paul Nicholls has been trod by the likes of Master Minded, Twist Magic and Silviniaco Conti while Sametegal, Frodon and Solo have helped maintain the prestige of said tour in more recent years.

40/1 Raffles Face bg F Nicolle 2-1-1
Authorized (Falco){5-e}(0.75) 6/4 Sky's The Limit 3rd Aintree Hurdle (G1), Aintree 2006
Second to Nimes in his division of the Prix d'Essai des Poulains he won the Prix Rocking Chair next time out. Any winning son of Authorized must be of interest in the juvenile hurdles on these shores but he is another who remains at the Nicolle yard and his being owned by Munir and Souede is not reason alone to assume that he will be moving to the UK or Ireland.

50/1 Brentford Hope bc R Hughes 1-1-0
Camelot (Raven's Pass){21-a}(0.68) 3/2 El Milagro 2nd 4YO Listed Handicap Hurdle, Auteuil 2011
Won his only start in a Newmarket maiden last October by five lengths and appeared alongside the word "Derby" in certain conversations. However, injury interrupted these ambitions and he has still yet to return to the racecourse. The form of his Newmarket win is fine and although Richard Hughes has yet to win from his four runners in juvenile hurdles, his owners are no strangers to jumps horses and Brentford Hope is the only horse who appears in all of the available lists. Camelot has had a fine start with jumpers (Sir Erec and Gardens Of Babylon) so while there is a lot of uncertainty at this stage, he be an interesting horse to see over hurdles.

50/1 Hacker des Places bg P Nicholls 2-1-1
Great Pretender (Le Havre){7}(0.45) 2/0 Wild Queen 1st Prix Triquerville (L 4yo Chs), Auteuil 2006
After looking rather green when third to Paros at Dieppe, Hacker des Places was still looking inexperienced when decisively taking an ordinary race at Dax from a previous winner. His sire's winners to runners rate of 71% in juvenile hurdles is consistent with his similarly impressive rate of 62% in all jumps races and his granddam was a listed winner over fences as a four year old. Hacker des Places is another Francois Nicolle export and will run in the same Owners Group colours carried by Pentland Hills when winning the 2019 Triumph.

50/1 Mogul bc A O'Brien 6-2-1 OR 110
Galileo (Danehill){11-d}(0.74) 5/6 Bounce Back, 5/6 Zaliapour
Sixth in last weekend's Derby, while Joseph O'Brien will likely inherit a few from his father at the end of the season, it is too soon to assume that Mogul will be one of them.

50/1 Overpriced Mixer bg N Henderson 5-2-2 OR 79
Harbour Watch (Daylami){21-a}(1.40) 8/6 Keppols Queen 3rd Mares Champion Hurdle (G1), Punchestown 2016
After winning a pair of Novice Auction Stakes at Thirsk and Kempton for Jamie Osborne, Overpriced Mixer was sold for £90,000 at Tattersalls' Autumn sale. Sire Harbour Watch has a respectable 33% winners to runners rate with juveniles and those out of Daylami mares can hold their own. However, only around a third of each type improve for switching codes and there is a dearth of proven jumpers on the damline. Those sold by Jamie Osborne can pick up prize money but are not usually high class and although there is no reason to assume he can not win races, expensive juveniles who wind up at Seven Barrows do not habitually achieve greatness. Overpriced Mixer will carry the Axom silks.

100/1 North Street bg J Coogan 3-0-0
Epailette (Shamardal){14-c}(1.26) 3/3 Long Dog dual Grade One winning novice hurdler in 2015
Beaten by 19½ lengths in a Gowran maiden last week at 66/1. 52!/1 would still represent cramped odds.
 
And here are an additional three horses who have been imported from France but are not currently listed.

Busselton bg J P O'Brien 1-1-0
Mastercraftsman (Rock Of Gibraltar){1-u}(2.43) 5/4 Soldier On Parade runs tomorrow at Bangor
Like the Prix Rush and the Prix Grandak, the Prix Wild Monarch is another race for horses making their first appearances over hurdles. Recent graduates include Footpad, Dolas and Botox Has in keeping with its tradition of introducing some top class animals to the game over the years such as Long Run, Golden Silver, Remember Rose, Hinterland and Le Grand Luce to name but a few. This year's edition, boasting a large field of nineteen starters, was won by Busselton who was representing the David Cottin yard. His fourth dam, 1983 1000 Guineas winner Ma Biche, has not supplemented her successes on the racecourse in the breeding sheds and Busselton is her only descendant to have won over obstacles. Rock Of Gibraltar was capable as a sire of juveniles but offers little enthusiasm as a damsire. However, for all that the distaff side is a proverbial family tree of woe, sire Mastercraftsman is the leading sire of juveniles by individual winners which amounts to a respectable 29% of all runners. Furthermore, two of the three Joseph O'Brien juveniles who started in French Hurdle races have won and the third, Fine Brunello, chased home stablemate and fellow import Fakir d'Oudairies in the Grade Two Finesse in 2019. This season's Prix Wild Monarch has yet to produce any winners from thirteen attempts although fourth placed Hades was second next time in the Prix Rocking Chair and he's the only representative from the first four who were ten lengths clear of the remainder.

State Man chg Unknown 1-0-1
Doctor Dino (Johann Quatz){4-r}(0.71) 0.5 Statuaire 2nd Prix Finot (listed), Auteuil 2018
Second behind Busselton was State Man who finished two lengths behind the winner. By Doctor Dino, a most capable stallion who can count Sceau Royal, Sharjah and Master Dino amongst his offspring, State Man also has juvenile credentials on the damline. His half sister was second in the Prix Finot two seasons ago while the dam, who incidentally was third in the Fillies' Wild Monarch, collected the listed Prix de Chambly in 2009. State Man is down has being exported on the France Gallop site although information of his whereabouts is not readily available online. He was trained by Daniela Mele for his sole start and her other export to the UK was Stratagem who ran for Paul Nicholls - a trainer who has a history of acquiring runners from the Prix Wild Monarch. Nevertheless, the notion that State Man might well be at Ditcheat is pure conjecture on my part.

Hope You Do bg Unknown 1-1-0
Boris de Deauville (Nononito){3-c}(2.00) 2/1 Bidourey 3x1st Juvenile Hurdles 2014/15
Registered as "sold" on France Galop, Hope You Do won a bumper at Angers on the 23rd of May by two lengths. The runner up has subsequently finished second at Les Sables d'Olonne and the third placed Hockney Vallis improved one position on his return to Angers. The late Boris de Deauville, sire of dual listed hurdle winner Baxter and this season's current leading French juvenile Magneto, is one winner from one runner with his juveniles in the UK after Pola Chance won a Wetherby handicap off 92. Hope You Do himself is out of a half sister to David Pipe's Bidourey who also won an AQPS flat race on his debut for Isabelle Pacault.
 
:highly_amused: An excellent post, well worthy of starting the thread. I assume you're not Davy Russell, a lot of time an effort on a lot of flat-rats!
 
One of my personal takes from last years festival was not to get involved in the triumph till February there’s just so many unknowns better value at the minute with horses with form in the book instead of the unknown on a boat from France :highly_amused:
 
I was blown away (love saying that) with Brentford Hope - any confirmation that he was going hurdling I wouldn't be able to resist.

Quilixios is seemingly on most peoples radars, highlighted nice and early by JackieMoon, given that he's with Cheveley Park and gone to Gordon.


I'll want to get the Mullins runner on-board when I can as a fair basic rule... I don't know if any of the ones mentioned or priced are trained by Willie?
 
Always interesting to hear about the french juveniles coming over here. Thanks for the write up. I quite like Quilixios and will be adding him to the book at some point and given how closely related he is to Paros I May have to add him too when news of his well-being comes out from Nicky’s stable tour. He’s in good hands with a trainer who knows a thing or two about training triumph Winners.
 
Cheers lads

One of my personal takes from last years festival was not to get involved in the triumph till February there’s just so many unknowns better value at the minute with horses with form in the book instead of the unknown on a boat from France :highly_amused:

This crude image (https://imgur.com/a/DhWaBx8) which shows the date Triumph 1-2-3s made their UK/IRE hurdling debuts (French hurdling debuts in next column, French bumpers the one after) would suggest that yours is a most sensible approach!

I was blown away (love saying that) with Brentford Hope - any confirmation that he was going hurdling I wouldn't be able to resist.

Since 2010, sixteen three year old colts or geldings for more than 100,000 guineas have been sold under the Balding name and Brentford Hope, with his rating, will easily fetch that kind of money if sent to auction. Of those sixteen horses, only Torcello (officially rated 93), Powder Hound (91), Never Do Nothing (91), Flaxen Flare (83) and The Graduate (90) raced as juvenile hurdlers. Berkshire Royal (86), who ran for the same owners, did join Willie Mullins but only made his debut in the Supreme after missing his juvenile season. The rest of those who ran again did so either in the Middle East or in Australia. Annoyingly, simply typing Balding into the RP sales search will not provide a comprehensive list of all of his previous inmates since Lethal Steps, for example, was consigned by agent Jamie Railton. Nevertheless, even if we are to assume that Brentford Hope does go to auction, it is statistically likelier that a horse of his calibre will be heading for warmer climes.

I'll want to get the Mullins runner on-board when I can as a fair basic rule... I don't know if any of the ones mentioned or priced are trained by Willie?

None of the aforementioned are said to be with Mullins yet but there is still plenty of time. The Arqana summer sale takes place this coming Monday which is where he sourced the likes of Diakali, Petite Parisienne, Darroun and Adriana Des Mottes in recent years so perhaps he might pick up another nice one there?
 
Fabulous posts Kot. Not a race I ever get involved in AP but seriously good study and clues for those that do.
 
Great stuff Kot,

Looking through I was interested in the two Alan King horses, as their form on the flat is very good, with official ratings of 90 and 99 already from this seasons early runs.

Both look nailed on to go hurdling given connections, and with their flat form, and size, its possible that they could take to hurdles and lead a renaissance for the trainer in the race this season.
 
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Great stuff Kot,

Looking through I was interested in the two Alan King horses, as their form on the flat is very good, with official ratings of 90 and 99 already from this seasons early runs.

Both look mailed on to go hurdling given connections, and with their flat form, and size, its possible that they could take to hurdles and lead a renaissance for the trainer in the race this season.

Tritonic declared for a listed race in Hamilton tomorrow. He finished 1 1/2L ahead of Subjectivist (6/4 fav) in a G3 last backend and looks value at 2/1
 
Great stuff Kot,

Looking through I was interested in the two Alan King horses, as their form on the flat is very good, with official ratings of 90 and 99 already from this seasons early runs.

Both look mailed on to go hurdling given connections, and with their flat form, and size, its possible that they could take to hurdles and lead a renaissance for the trainer in the race this season.

From memory, Alan Kings horses seem to always get an early mention on the forum, not sure why though, as he's far from prolific in the race since, and hasn't won it since 2007 with Katchit.

In fact, the last 10 festivals his Triumph Hurdle record reads as follows:

2020 - 1 runner - 10th
2019 - No runners
2018 - 1 runner - 6th (of 9)
2017 - 2 runners - 7th & 10th
2016 - 3 runners - 9th, 12th & 14th
2015 - 2 runners - 11th & 12th
2014 - No runners
2013 - 1 runner - 13th
2012 - 2 runners - 3rd (was fav.) & F
2011 - 1 runner - 10th

13 runners in the last 10 seasons and just one of them placed@ 5/1 fav.

It seems he went through a purple patch from 2005 to 2009, with 2 winners, 2 2nd's & a 3rd. He was the go to trainer for the juvenile hurdlers, but he still seems to be hung on to like a resurgence is imminent, despite the above record of the past 10 festivals.

I'd have to question getting involved in any of his juveniles at this current stage.
 
From memory, Alan Kings horses seem to always get an early mention on the forum, not sure why though, as he's far from prolific in the race since, and hasn't won it since 2007 with Katchit.

In fact, the last 10 festivals his Triumph Hurdle record reads as follows:

2020 - 1 runner - 10th
2019 - No runners
2018 - 1 runner - 6th (of 9)
2017 - 2 runners - 7th & 10th
2016 - 3 runners - 9th, 12th & 14th
2015 - 2 runners - 11th & 12th
2014 - No runners
2013 - 1 runner - 13th
2012 - 2 runners - 3rd (was fav.) & F
2011 - 1 runner - 10th

13 runners in the last 10 seasons and just one of them placed@ 5/1 fav.

It seems he went through a purple patch from 2005 to 2009, with 2 winners, 2 2nd's & a 3rd. He was the go to trainer for the juvenile hurdlers, but he still seems to be hung on to like a resurgence is imminent, despite the above record of the past 10 festivals.

I'd have to question getting involved in any of his juveniles at this current stage.

I'm guilty of having this misconception of Alan King and juveniles myself. Last summer I put up both The Olympian and Trueshan as potentials for the Triumph; the former never made the track under any code and the latter proved good enough to remain on the level.

Given the fact that all the big owners and trainers are throwing darts at the Triumph these days, I'd not be enthusiastic over any Alan King horse as he's just not a consistent winner at the festival these days.
 
From memory, Alan Kings horses seem to always get an early mention on the forum, not sure why though, as he's far from prolific in the race since, and hasn't won it since 2007 with Katchit.

In fact, the last 10 festivals his Triumph Hurdle record reads as follows:

2020 - 1 runner - 10th
2019 - No runners
2018 - 1 runner - 6th (of 9)
2017 - 2 runners - 7th & 10th
2016 - 3 runners - 9th, 12th & 14th
2015 - 2 runners - 11th & 12th
2014 - No runners
2013 - 1 runner - 13th
2012 - 2 runners - 3rd (was fav.) & F
2011 - 1 runner - 10th

13 runners in the last 10 seasons and just one of them placed@ 5/1 fav.

It seems he went through a purple patch from 2005 to 2009, with 2 winners, 2 2nd's & a 3rd. He was the go to trainer for the juvenile hurdlers, but he still seems to be hung on to like a resurgence is imminent, despite the above record of the past 10 festivals.

I'd have to question getting involved in any of his juveniles at this current stage.

COD,

Wont be getting involved with Kingy at this point.

Just looks like his flat horses are running so well, and the quality of 3yo horses owned by dual-purpose owners looks like it could be better than anytime in the last 10 years. One or two could enter the juvenile hurdle scene.

Tritonic at OR 99 only needs one more improvement in a race to probably put him into Listed and Group races on the flat, which may give him the year off a first hurdling (like he did with Trueshan last season).
 
COD,

Wont be getting involved with Kingy at this point.

Just looks like his flat horses are running so well, and the quality of 3yo horses owned by dual-purpose owners looks like it could be better than anytime in the last 10 years. One or two could enter the juvenile hurdle scene.

Tritonic at OR 99 only needs one more improvement in a race to probably put him into Listed and Group races on the flat, which may give him the year off a first hurdling (like he did with Trueshan last season).

Fair enough SW.

He'll probably win it now I've written him off anyway :highly_amused:
 
FWIW Tritonic isn't going down the Triumph route currently, for those that were contemplating backing that one.

The McNeill family replied to someone on Twitter regarding this.
 
History supports much of what was stated in the above posts re;- Alan King and his recent juveniles.

Since the 2015/16 season, Alan King has sent out 25 juveniles who like Tritonic and Midnights Legacy spent their flat careers at the same yard. Of those 25, only six had official ratings that exceeded 80 and with the exception of Cosmeapolitan - who won his sole start - they all picked up two races apiece. Tritonic would have been the highest rated of the lot although that's looking rather moot at this stage. Neverlethess, Midnights Legacy's mark of 90 puts him behind only Chatez (a questionable stayer) and Cosmeapolitan and while it is not a lofty standard, he would still be the strongest animal of his type for a while. Furthermore the owners were keen to go hurdling last year, even if Trueshan and Tritonic have shown us that nothing is set in stone!

As far as the Triumph and its relevance as an ante-post interest is concerned, with the help of archived shots of oddschecker, I have been able to find snapshots of markets at various points of the past few seasons...

2015
1.Peace And Co 2/1f
2.Top Notch 7/1
3.Hargam 8/1

11/10/14 Hargam 20
11/10/14 Timiyan 20
11/10/14 Chartbreaker 25
11/10/14 Kalkir 33
11/10/14 Karezak 33
11/10/14 Limini 33
11/10/14 Top Notch 33
11/10/14 Unanimite 33

25/12/14 Peace And Co 4.5
25/12/14 Kalkir 6
25/12/14 Hargam 14
25/12/14 Bonito Du Berlais 18
25/12/14 Golden Doyen 20
25/12/14 Top Notch 33

2016
1.Ivanovich Gorbatov 9/2f
2.Apple's Jade 12/1
3.Footpad 5/1

22/09/15 Zubayr 16
22/09/15 Fixe Le Kap 25
22/09/15 John F Kennedy 25
22/09/15 Khezerabad 25
22/09/15 Lets Dance 25
22/09/15 Red Hammer 25

21/12/15 Footpad 16
21/12/15 Rashaan 16
21/12/15 Zubayrr 19
21/12/15 Kasakh Noir 20
21/12/15 Who Dares Wins 20
21/12/15 Outspoken 20
21/12/15 Sceau Royal 20
21/12/15 Zubayr 20
21/12/15 Campeador 20
21/12/15 Ivanovich Gorbatov 25

08/02/16 Ivanovich Gorbatov 6
08/02/16 Fixe Le Kap 8
08/02/16 Sceau Royal 8
08/02/16 Gibralfaro 10
08/02/16 Connetable 12
08/02/16 Footpad 12
08/02/16 Apples Jade 21

2017
1.Defi Du Seuil 5/2f
2.Mega Fortune 7/1
3.Bapaume 10/1

21/09/16 Bapaume 20
21/09/16 Catwells 20
21/09/16 Landofhopeandglory 20
21/09/16 Camprock 25
21/09/16 Flying Tiger 25
21/09/16 Meri Devie 25
21/09/16 Sir Valentine 25

22/10/16 Francin 16
22/10/16 Bapaume 20
22/10/16 Catwells 20
22/10/16 Landofhopeandglory 20
22/10/16 Camprock 25
22/10/16 Cliffs Of Dover 25
22/10/16 Defi Du Seuil 25
22/10/16 Divin Bere 25
22/10/16 Dolos 25
22/10/16 Flying Tiger 25
22/10/16 Gunnery 25
22/10/16 Laws Of Spin 25
22/10/16 Lord Justice 25
22/10/16 Meri Devie 25
22/10/16 Mega Fortune 33

26/12/16 Defi Du Seuil 8
26/12/16 Bapaume 10
26/12/16 Landofhopeandglory 12
26/12/16 Housesofparliament 16
26/12/16 Cliffs Of Dover 20
26/12/16 Charli Parcs 20
26/12/16 Dinaria Des Obeaux 20
26/12/16 Laws Of Spin 20
26/12/16 Sword Fighter 20
26/12/16 Mega Fortune 25

04/02/17 Defi Du Seuil 4.2
04/02/17 Charli Parcs 9
04/02/17 Meri Devie 9
04/02/17 Dinaria Des Obeaux 10
04/02/17 Bapaume 14.2
04/02/17 Cliffs Of Dover 16
04/02/17 Landofhopeandglory 16
04/02/17 Housesofparliament 20
04/02/17 Mega Fortune 25

2018
1.Farclas 9/1
2.Mr Adjudicator 8/1
3.Sayo 33/1

10/09/17 Empreinte Reconce 25
10/09/17 Espoir Dallen 25
10/09/17 Grand Sancy 25
10/09/17 Apples Shakira 33
10/09/17 Demopolis 33
10/09/17 Nathan 33

19/11/17 Apples Shakira 5
19/11/17 Espoir Dallen 16
19/11/17 Mitchouka 20
19/11/17 Grand Sancy 25
19/11/17 Gumball 25

Unable to find any markets prior to Cheltenham week itself

2019
1.Pentland Hills 20/1
2.Coeur Sublime 20/1
3.Gardens Of Babylon 9/1

06/10/18 Astronomer 25
06/10/18 Adjali 33
06/10/18 Chief Justice 33
06/10/18 Coeur Sublime 33
06/10/18 Jack Regan 33
06/10/18 Lethal Steps 33
06/10/18 Never Adapt 33
06/10/18 Runrized 33
06/10/18 Staking 33
06/10/18 Tiger Tap Tap 33

20/12/18 Adjali 10
20/12/18 Never Adapt 16
20/12/18 Quel Destin 20
20/12/18 Torpillo 20
20/12/18 Astronomer 25
20/12/18 Coeur Sublime 25
20/12/18 Coko Beach 25
20/12/18 Deadline Diva 25
20/12/18 Fructine 25
20/12/18 Jon Snow 25
20/12/18 Sir Erec 25

02/02/19 Sir Erec 1.75
02/02/19 Fakir Doudairies 10
02/02/19 Pic dOrhy 16
02/02/19 Quel Destin 16
02/02/19 Tiger Tap Tap 16
02/02/19 Carlo Biraghi 20
02/02/19 Gardens Of Babylon 20
02/02/19 Torpillo 20
02/02/19 Coeur Sublime 25
02/02/19 Pentland Hills 33

2020
1.Burning Victory 12/1
2.Aspire Tower 5/1
3.Allmankind 7/2

15/08/19 Gin On Lime 16
15/08/19 Aweedram 33
15/08/19 Beatboxer 33
15/08/19 Eminent Authority 33
15/08/19 Hipsters 33
15/08/19 Mick Pastor 33
15/08/19 The Olympian 33
15/08/19 Goshen 40

04/10/19 Micro Manage 16
04/10/19 Gin On Lime 25
04/10/19 Beatboxer 33
04/10/19 Chez Hans 33
04/10/19 Eminent Authority 33
04/10/19 Hipsters 33
04/10/19 Il Paradiso 33
04/10/19 Mick Pastor 33
04/10/19 Rayapour 33
04/10/19 Saint DOroux 33
04/10/19 Goshen 66

25/12/19 Goshen 9
25/12/19 Micro Manage 14
25/12/19 Allmankind 16
25/12/19 Cerberus 16
25/12/19 Trueshan 16
25/12/19 Aramax 20
25/12/19 Aspire Tower 20

06/02/20 Allmankind 5
06/02/20 Goshen 5
06/02/20 Aspire Tower 8
06/02/20 A Wave of The Sea 16
06/02/20 Cerberus 20
06/02/20 Mick Pastor 20
06/02/20 Burning Victory 40
 
Fascinating stuff Kotkijet - great work.
 
I have already looked at the bulk of those in the Triumph Hurdle markets although there have been a few additions over the past few weeks. The only change in the prices has been Paros has drifting from 16/1 to 33/1.

25/1 Dawn Rising bg (presumably) J O'Brien 4-1-1 RPR107
Galileo (Danehill Dancer){4-k}(0.76) 1/1 Triplicate 2nd Royal Bond Novices Hurde (G1), Fairyhouse 2018
While there has been no official word on this horse, he was recently treated to a gelding operation as well as entering most of the Triumph lists. Should he make the transition then he would make a most intriguing addition to the division. Along with being related to classic winners Sovereign, West Wind and Balanchine, he is also a full brother to Royal Bond runner up Triplicate and other good jumpers on his damline include Starchitect (2/3), Rio De Janeiro (2/1), Vandas Choice (3/1) and Butler's Cabin (5/4). Finishing last on his debut in the Group 3 Eyrefield Stakes last October, Dawn Rising broke his maiden this June at Limerick by twelve lengths from a horse who would win a handicap off 75 next time out. Allowed to travel to Newmarket for the Group 3 Bahrain Trophy, the sweaty Dawn Rising won one battle up the straight against subsequent German Oaks winner Miss Yoda but was a spent force when headed just outside the furlong marker. The winner disappointed next time in the Gordon Stakes but it is still genuine group level form. Galileo is more than capable of siring juvenile hurdlers although his best (Royal Irish Hussar, Bally Glasheen, Outspoken) have been just shy of top class and has a better record as a damsire (Pentland Hills, Hargam, Sir Erec) and similar sentiments can apply to Danehill Dancer who is again an above average damsire without getting top class juveniles through his mares. Dawn Rising would not be the first pattern class horse off the flat to run for Joseph O'Brien in juvenile hurdles and both Landofhopeandglory and Sir Erec achieved success in the sphere. However, there were another three who were also officially rated above 100 who failed to win during their first seasons over hurdles (Housesofparliament, Sword Fighter, Tree Of Knowledge) although Ivanovich Gorbatov can also be included if one counts those trained in his father's name. Overall, while Dawn Rising's profile does not make him a guaranteed success in the division, he certainly has the potential to cause problems for any horse this season.

33/1 Amhran Na Bhfiann
The Derby third was introduced to the betting by Unibet after news emerged that he suffered a condylar fracture and following an operation where he had two pins put in his fetlock joint will be out until year at the earliest. Unibet are also the only firm happy to take bets on Gordon Stakes winner Mogul and the still scratched Nimes. This behaviour from these utter parasites can be at best described as fraudulent.

50/1 Flying Scotsman bc J O'Brien 6-2-0 RPR 83
Galileo (Mastercraftsman){1-w}(0.60) 3/1 Sir Frank Morgan 1st Novices' Hurdle, Exeter 2015
Flying Scotsman is another Joseph O'Brien inmate and while his flat form does not carry the prestige of Dawn Rising, he did win two handicaps at the Galway festival last week. Finishing no better than ninth on his first four starts, this improvement was said to have resulted from a step up in trip and a softening of ground and was maintained following a drop in trip of half a mile and a firming up of the ground. Cynicism aside, he has demonstrated the blend of speed and stamina vital in this discipline and his damsire, a leading sire of juveniles, has also made a bright start with his mare's offspring in the division. Flying Scotsman will still need to improve before he can be thought of in Triumph terms but he has a nice profile and it will be no surprise if he turns out to be a useful sort.

50/1 Prunay bg Ireland f2-0-2 RPR59 h2-0-0 RPR127
Prince Gibraltar (Daylami){8-f}(1.50) 3/4 Cerberus 3rd Spring Juvenile Hurdle (G1), Leopardstown 2020
Since 2011/12 there have been seventy-four juveniles who found new homes after the Arqana Summer sales at Deavillle including Diakali, Petite Parisienne, Adriana des Mottes and Zubayr. The last named was the most expensive of them all when he fetched €380,000 in 2015 but his price is the only one that exceeds this year's top lot, Prunay, who changed hands for €240,000. Prunay's career began in a flat race at Fontainebleau last November where he finished sixth, less than two lengths behind a future listed winner and three-quarters of a length ahead of a listed third. After a return to Fontainebleau for another flat race, he once again finished sixth ahead of a pair of subsequent handicap winners. His hurdling debut came in the Prix Grandak touched upon in Mica Malpic's write up earlier in the thread. A lauchpad for such quality jumpers as Beaumac de Houelle, Storm Of Saintly and Saint des Saints, this year's renewal saw Prunay finish nine lengths behind the winner but upwards of eleven lengths of the remainder. The winner has not been seen out since and those in behind have done nothing to uphold or elevate the form. Nevertheless, Prunay did give his stock a more respectable look when finishing third in the Prix Aguado, a Grade 3 with a good tradition, at Auteuil ahead of five previous winners and jumping well in the process. Sire Prince Gibraltar has had just the one hurdler in Ireland but has had three others in France thus far including a winner and a placed horse and while the Rock Of Gibraltar line is not prolific, it can get decent types. Daylami's record as a damsire is below average but by no means the worst. Prunay's damline is not brimming with jumpers but it does include last season's decent juvenile Cerberus (3/4) with The Job Is Right (5/6) further back. It has not been disclosed which particular yard Prunay will end up but the agent Toby Jones did say he was going to clients in Ireland and stated that his being a maiden enhanced his price tag as well as describing him more a chasing type for the future.

50/1 Night And Day bf W Mullins f4-0-3 (70.4)
Sea The Moon (Danehill){9-f}(1.22) .5 Supasundae 1st Irish Champion Hurdle, Leopardstown 2018
A horse from the Arqana sales whose destination has been disclosed is Night And Day who has moved to the yard of Willie Mullins who has enjoyed winners with six of the last seven juveniles bought from Deauville. She is unraced over hurdles but earned an equivilent rating of 70.4 from four runs on the flat, three of which saw her finish placed including when runner up last time in a Clairefontaine handicap over 2900 meters. Her flat rating is the lowest of all the Mullins purchases yet at €90,000, she is the most expensive of any horse bringing a rating lower than 80 from France. This can be explained in part to her being a half sister to the top class Supasundae as well as other winners Distingo and Twenty Twenty and that her sire Sea The Moon produced winners Allmankind, Must See The Doc and Gealach in his first jumping crop. She needs to leave her flat form far behind to get to the top of the division but she obviously stays, has a likeable pedigree and is in very good hands.

50/1 Soaring Monarch bg P Fahey 6-1-2 (83) 87
Free Eagle (Dubawi){10-c}(0.90) 5/4 Bayan 1st Handicap Hurdle (G3,146), Ascot 2014
Soaring Monarch is not mentioned in terms of hurdling on the internet apart from in the Triumph lists but as his trainer predominantly handles national hunt horses, we can work on the assumption that that is where his attentions will be turned. He sprang a 50/1 surprise when losing his maiden tag at Limerick in June in a six and a half furlong maiden which has produced just one subsequent winner who landed a handicap off 59. He has since finished runner up in a pair of handicaps at the Galway festival including last time off 83 over nine and a half furlongs on soft ground. Soaring Monarch is rather distantly (5/4) related to the good handicapper Bayan but more immediately, his half brother and his dam's two siblings are all poor maidens over jumps. This will be his sire's first crop of juveniles and while his sire High Chaparral was good influence in the sphere, his sons have yet to really make a mark although Dubawi has a couple of winners from seven as a damsire. Peter Fahey has had no winner from his three juveniles since the 2011/12 season and while Soaring Monarch could well be a capable juvenile, his inclusion in the Triumph betting is very premature.

66/1 Hiconic bf A Hales f7-0-2 (57) 57 j4-4-0 (119) 115
Sixties Icon (Acclamation){1-n}(0.60) 1/0 Hi Note 2nd 4YO Hurdle, Cheltenham 2012
A great deal has already been written in the race threads about this tremendously admirable filly and she is undoubtedly the best juvenile hurdler seen to date this year in the UK. It is possible for juveniles who contest the early season contests in the summer to play a part on the great stages in the spring with the likes of Quazar and Countrywide Flame winning in August and July ahead of doing the Aintree, Punchestown double and winning at Cheltenham respectively. However, while these two horses made great strides in a couple of races before embarking on their autumn campaigns, Hiconic has already raced on four occasions and even if she has yet to plateau, most juveniles tend to do so after only a few starts. While racing post ratings have her latest performance as her best by half a stone, I gave her close to the same mark but that would be lower than what she achieved at Stratford or Bangor. Hiconic has shown herself to be a likeable horse and she has earned the right to compete for black type given the proliferation of suitable races for her gender. However, she needs to improve even further by at least a couple of stones before she can be considered for the Triumph and that is not so likely given how she is already quite exposed.

100/1 Prince Percy bg G Moore f6-0-1 (61) 65 j1-0-1 (-) 96
Sir Percy (High Chaparral){1-u}(0.39) 3/1 Walk In The Park National Hunt Stallion
Beaten by eleven lengths on his debut at Market Rasen, Prince Percy is capable of winning an ordinary contest but his Triumph hurdle credentials can not be seriously entertained barring an extraordinary level of improvement.