To Win 'Any Race' 2019

[Scooby91]

Not sure if this one has been mentioned but....

Champagne Classic - 20-1 William Hill - Last seen over 3m hurdles at Punchestown and the form could hardly be better, beating Penhill, Tin Soldier, Monalee, Al Boum Photo, PRESENTING PERCY!, Moulin A Vent & Bon Papa.

Think chasing is the plan and could well be an RSA type or even one for the 4 miler.

I agree form looks rock solid likewise tin soldier, But is champagne classic sound, there's alot of people backing horses that were injured last year and might not even be in the yard. And prettt high profile horses unfortunately pop up on the deceased lost without a mention (ie rapid escape)

 

[SAMCRO]

I agree form looks rock solid likewise tin soldier, But is champagne classic sound, there's alot of people backing horses that were injured last year and might not even be in the yard. And prettt high profile horses unfortunately pop up on the deceased lost without a mention (ie rapid escape)

Hes back in training Elliott confirmed few days ago,along with don poli. Death duty still on the easy list.

 

[Scooby91]

Hes back in training Elliott confirmed few days ago,along with don poli. Death duty still on the easy list.

Thanks for that, hopefully he stays sound. Might also be one that will be a big exchange price and then improve for the spring ground.

 

[archie]

Last year, the Mullins and Elliott stable tours on atr were on the 19th and 6th October respectively. A good time to take a view.

 

[Kevloaf]

Oddschecker now have a 'To win any race' market up making it easier to see best price in this market

 

[Kevloaf]

I just got all excited thinking about Draconien for the Champion Hurdle...

Won the Champion Novice Hurdle at Punchestown when 25/1 - a race won by Douvan, Faugheen and Jezki in previous years.

He had the Supreme placed Mengli Khan in 3rd, and Vision Des Flos in 2nd - as well as Whiskey Sour, Sharjah (since won the Galway Plate), Getabird and Paloma Blue behind that day.

The ground was Yielding to Soft which is the best ground he's been on, and the best result of his career. If better ground is the key to this horse, he'd be a major interest to me....

HOWEVER, I saw he's only quoted with 365 at a pretty uninspiring 20/1 I was hoping he was somewhat under the radar... but doesn't seem to be.


I checked though and he's 20/1 any race with WH (22/1 available boosted).... so I wonder whether a bit of creative placing could lead to him being a County Hurdle horse? (Or any handicap).... If I'm honest I was hoping he'd be a wild price in the Champion Hurdle market, so I can obviously leave that... and 20/1 isn't exactly a huge price for a horse I think may end up in a competitive handicap. He may not even make the trip and be saved for the Irish festivals. He ran in March (Navan) and twice in April last year.

Of the races he's contested, (Fairyhouse first) Mullins has had winners with Bleu Berry, Sempre Medici, Valsuer Lido and Pique Sous (with Alderwood and Sutton Place also winning the same race in the last 6 years - all of which are decent/good horses... with the latest winning at this years festival.

As I am going slightly on a tangent, Sayar would also interest me in handicaps as he seems to have been in a lot of the same races...

Any thoughts, anyone tempted by Draconien in the any race market? I haven't convinced myself just yet...

 

[archie]

I posted this early in the Arkle thread.

'I've never really felt the love for Mengli Khan and Paloma Blue. End of season form makes Draconien an interesting project but I don't have a clue which path he will take.'

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I guess with the handicaps it all depends on ratings come race day. Draconien beat some very good horses last season, and for that he is now rated 151 in Ireland, that would have given him 11st 9lb in this years race, which is plenty enough for such an inexperienced horse.

As you have said Kev, there is every chance there is a bit of creative placement, in which case his mark could drop also from now until then.

Arctic Fire won off top weight, but he was on another level to Draconien (at this moment in time) and had been and done a lot of racing, including Champion Hurdles to toughen him up.

I'd say there would be no harm putting Draconien in, what would look like, quite a youthful Champion Hurdle, though the 20/1 is not appealing at all, I'd want double.

Despite the relative lack of racing he has done, at an early stage I'd say he'll be better for good ground, his 3 defeats under rules to date have all been on 'heavy'.

 

[Kevloaf]

I posted this early in the Arkle thread.

'I've never really felt the love for Mengli Khan and Paloma Blue. End of season form makes Draconien an interesting project but I don't have a clue which path he will take.'

I did recall seeing his name on here but couldn't remember where... OJA seems to suggest he'll be staying over smaller obstacles too (just checked and he does get a mention at least!)

 

[Kevloaf]

I guess with the handicaps it all depends on ratings come race day. Draconien beat some very good horses last season, and for that he is now rated 151 in Ireland, that would have given him 11st 9lb in this years race, which is plenty enough for such an inexperienced horse.

As you have said Kev, there is every chance there is a bit of creative placement, in which case his mark could drop also from now until then.

Arctic Fire won off top weight, but he was on another level to Draconien (at this moment in time) and had been and done a lot of racing, including Champion Hurdles to toughen him up.

I'd say there would be no harm putting Draconien in, what would look like, quite a youthful Champion Hurdle, though the 20/1 is not appealing at all, I'd want double.

Despite the relative lack of racing he has done, at an early stage I'd say he'll be better for good ground, his 3 defeats under rules to date have all been on 'heavy'.

I think you're right, 11st9lb wouldn't have me excited - he won't exactly be under the radar either. Ah well, I have plenty of nights to waste between now and March so I'll just move on :highly_amused:

 

[Kevloaf]

I've added Sebastapol for Tom George at 27/1 (WH). Won the same bumper that Sprinter Sacre won at Ayr (Pym won it last year) and the trainer seems to be in a good place at the moment. Upward curve. It isn't a wild price but he had two superb novice hurdlers last year and at this early stage I'd like to get one that he fancies on side.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

I've added Sebastapol for Tom George at 27/1 (WH). Won the same bumper that Sprinter Sacre won at Ayr (Pym won it last year) and the trainer seems to be in a good place at the moment. Upward curve. It isn't a wild price but he had two superb novice hurdlers last year and at this early stage I'd like to get one that he fancies on side.

Tom Lacey Kev. You been on the rum already? :very_drunk:

 

[Kevloaf]

Tom Lacey Kev. You been on the rum already? :very_drunk:

Wow. Yes.

Fortunately, despite not being Tom George, he's still a trainer I like and Thomas Patrick proves he can handle a talented horse. :very_drunk:

I don't usually make mistakes like that even when drunk.... apart from trying to remember who trained Alpha Des Obeaux, Meade or Mouse :highly_amused:

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Wow. Yes.

Fortunately, despite not being Tom George, he's still a trainer I like and Thomas Patrick proves he can handle a talented horse. :very_drunk:

I don't usually make mistakes like that even when drunk.... apart from trying to remember who trained Alpha Des Obeaux, Meade or Mouse :highly_amused:

There's no doubt about it in my mind - TL is superb, as is TG. Is Thomas Patrick one for the Hennessy?

 

[Kevloaf]

There's no doubt about it in my mind - TL is superb, as is TG. Is Thomas Patrick one for the Hennessy?

Has to be doesn't he. 20s still available.

My good friend Terrefort looks to have been clipped for the race... I'd have TP over him

 

[Kevloaf]

Does anyone think Commander OF Fleet will end up an Albert Bartlett horse?

Personally I think WAY TOO MUCH credit is being given to the horse because of Samcro. This horse isn't Samcro and is unlikely ever to be.

COF won his P2P well, and the bumper really well, so obviously he'll be good (great even), but are we just being incredibly lazy in thinking he'll go for the Ballymore just because Samcro did? They haven't gone the Ballymore route with any of their other 'best' novice hurdlers?

I think Samcro is exceptional, and therefore I feel like striking a line through him when considering their other horses, and looking at the Gigginstown usual MO... Commander Of Fleet is more likely to end up in the Albert Bartlett isn't he?! He's more 'Death Duty' than 'Samcro'. Although admittidly that could go either way, as Death Duty was another 'high profile' flop in the Albert Bartlett so they may decide to change there minds?

He is only quoted by one bookie for the AB (and that's a pretty rubbish 16/1) ... so I'd back him any race anyway... but I Wouldn't take 16/1 for the Ballymore when the Any Race price is still 12/1 (13/1)

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

I'd imagine they'll be thinking Ballymore at the start of the season and then see how he goes. They can always step up in trip if needed but plan A has to be the Ballymore imo.

 

[archie]

Commander Of Fleet is only 4 and very inexperienced. The AB is a tough race for a 5yo.

 

[Kevloaf]

Commander Of Fleet is only 4 and very inexperienced. The AB is a tough race for a 5yo.

Has been done a couple of times though.

Just strikes me GIgginstown would need to have had a change in their approach to not want a very very good one in the Albert Bartlett. They may well do that, but COF is not Samcro and I think he was the exception to the rule

 

[archie]

In the Land Rover bumper editions of 2015/16/17, Gigginstown had 6 runners. 5 of them (Ball D'Arc, Broken Soul, Hardline, Rapid Escape, Valdieu) were predominantly bumper horses the next season. The odd one out was Petit Mouchoir who stuck to 2m2f max over hurdles the next season.
For all that Commander Of Fleet won his point, there's just not enough information around to decide whether Fame and Glory's progeny will be better over 2 or 3 miles. If he really is seen as a good prospect, I wouldn't be surprised to see him kept to bumpers and not go to Cheltenham at all.